Bitcoin continues to trade below the $100,000 mark, struggling to find direction amid growing indecision and persistent selling pressure. After briefly dipping toward $95,000, the market is attempting to hold this key support level as sentiment remains fragile. Traders and investors are closely watching whether Bitcoin can stabilize here or if further downside is imminent.
According to top analyst Darkfost, the situation has become increasingly challenging for short-term holders (STHs) — those who acquired Bitcoin within the past few months. Their average cost basis now sits near $110,500, meaning that the majority of this cohort has been underwater for about a month. This signals widespread unrealized losses among newer market participants, often a precursor to emotional or panic-driven selling.
For context, during the March correction, short-term holders faced similar conditions for roughly two months before the market eventually recovered. Whether history will repeat itself remains to be seen, but the prolonged pressure on STHs is contributing to heightened volatility. As whales and long-term investors remain more stable, market resilience will likely depend on how this reactive segment behaves around the $95K–$100K range in the coming days.
Short-Term Holders Show Signs of Capitulation as Losses Mount
Short-term holders (STHs) are facing intense stress as selling pressure accelerates across the market. The STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) on a 30-day moving average has remained below 1, currently sitting at 0.993, which means that on average, STHs are realizing losses of around 7% when they move their coins. Historically, this type of behavior has coincided with the final stage of market corrections, as weak hands capitulate and stronger players quietly accumulate.
Darkfost notes that STHs are particularly reactive to price swings, often exiting positions in panic once losses deepen. This has been evident in recent weeks — on November 15, over 65,000 BTC were sent to exchanges at a loss, creating an estimated $6 billion in sell pressure. Earlier in the month, realized losses peaked at $812 million on November 9, confirming sustained capitulation activity.
Despite the negative sentiment, this dynamic has historically signaled market exhaustion rather than continuation. Each spike in realized losses throughout this cycle has marked the end of a correction, suggesting that while the current environment remains volatile, Bitcoin could be approaching the late stages of this downturn before rebounding.
Bitcoin Attempts to Stabilize Near $95K After Steep Sell-Off
Bitcoin’s recent price action shows a clear attempt to stabilize near $95,000 following a sharp decline that pushed it below the psychological $100,000 level. The chart illustrates that BTC has broken below both its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, signaling that short-term momentum remains bearish. However, the price is now finding temporary support around the $93,000–$95,000 zone — an area that coincides with prior consolidation in May and June.
The selling pressure that dominated last week has started to ease, as indicated by the slightly lower volume on recent candles. This suggests that sellers may be getting exhausted after a significant drawdown. Still, bulls are struggling to regain control, and a decisive close above $100,000 would be needed to reestablish confidence.
If the $95K level fails to hold, the next potential support sits near $90,000, aligning with the 200-day moving average — a historically critical line separating bullish from bearish phases. On the upside, reclaiming the 100K–105K zone could trigger renewed momentum toward $110K. For now, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, with investors watching closely to see whether this area becomes a bottoming zone or the prelude to a deeper correction.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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