# Shor Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Shor", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Ethereum Foundation Researcher: Quantum Day Is Approaching, Plans to Complete Quantum-Resistant Migration by 2029

Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake discusses the implications of a recent quantum computing breakthrough by Google’s quantum AI team, which demonstrated a 10x efficiency improvement in Shor’s algorithm against the secp256k1 elliptic curve used in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Notably, Google kept key algorithmic details confidential, using zero-knowledge proofs to verify the result without disclosure—a first in academia. Shortly after, the core optimization was independently reproduced, and an open-source competition (ecdsa.fail) emerged, further improving the algorithm by 8.4%. Meanwhile, startup Oratomic published research suggesting that neutral-atom quantum architectures could break secp256k1 with only 10,000 physical qubits, accelerating the timeline for "Q-Day"—the day quantum computers can break widely used cryptography. Drake estimates a 50% probability of Q-Day by 2032 and a 10% chance by 2030, contrasting with the U.S. government’s more conservative 2035 forecast. He warns against panic but stresses timely migration to post-quantum cryptography. Ethereum plans to complete its migration by 2029, covering consensus, data, and execution layers with hash-based systems. The Foundation is also developing leanVM, a formally verifiable zkVM, and has launched two $1 million initiatives to advance SNARK-friendly cryptography.

foresightnews_api06/05 04:07

Ethereum Foundation Researcher: Quantum Day Is Approaching, Plans to Complete Quantum-Resistant Migration by 2029

foresightnews_api06/05 04:07

Will Quantum Computing Kill Bitcoin and Mining? Is This Alarmist?

The article addresses the recurring concern that quantum computing could break Bitcoin's encryption and disrupt mining. It references a Google Quantum AI white paper from March 2026, which suggests that the resources needed for a quantum computer to crack Bitcoin’s elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) have been reduced by about 20 times. Under ideal conditions, such an attack could theoretically derive a private key from a public key in roughly 9 minutes using 500,000 physical qubits. However, the threat is not immediate. Current quantum processors, like Google’s Willow (105 qubits) or IBM’s Condor (~1,121 qubits), are far from the scale required. The risk primarily targets transaction signatures—especially during the brief window when a transaction is broadcast but not yet confirmed, or when public keys have been historically exposed. It is estimated there is only a 10% probability of a “quantum break” by 2032. The impact on mining is considered negligible. Research indicates that quantum mining would require astronomically high qubit counts and energy—far exceeding entire national grids—making it economically and physically infeasible. The broader solution lies in post-quantum cryptography (PQC). Standards like ML-DSA and SLH-DSA are being developed, and Bitcoin improvement proposals such as BIP 360 aim to reduce quantum vulnerability by modifying transaction structures to avoid exposing public keys. While quantum computing poses a future risk to all public-key encryption systems—not just Bitcoin—the cryptocurrency ecosystem has time to adapt. Upgrades and migration to quantum-resistant algorithms are underway, ensuring the network evolves ahead of the threat.

marsbit04/11 14:40

Will Quantum Computing Kill Bitcoin and Mining? Is This Alarmist?

marsbit04/11 14:40

Bitcoin May Avoid Immediate Quantum Upgrade With New Workaround: Study

A new study proposes a "Quantum Safe Bitcoin" (QSB) workaround that could protect new BTC transactions from quantum attacks without requiring a change to the Bitcoin protocol. Developed by StarkWare's Avihu Levy, the method operates within Bitcoin's existing rules, replacing elliptic curve math with a hash-to-signature puzzle that relies on brute-force computation, which is resistant to quantum attacks. This approach is praised by some, like StarkWare's CEO, as a way to make Bitcoin quantum-safe today. However, critics note it doesn't address vulnerabilities in existing exposed public keys or dormant wallets, which hold an estimated 1.7 million BTC. The scheme is also computationally expensive, costing $75-$150 per transaction, making it suitable only for large transfers and not for daily use or scaling solutions like the Lightning Network. While presented as a temporary fix, the researchers acknowledge that long-term protocol-level changes are still the preferred solution. The proposal emerges amid ongoing debate in the Bitcoin community about how to address quantum computing threats, following recent research that has intensified the discussion.

bitcoinist04/10 17:03

Bitcoin May Avoid Immediate Quantum Upgrade With New Workaround: Study

bitcoinist04/10 17:03

The Real Quantum Threat to Bitcoin: 99% of People Get It Wrong

Quantum Computing's Real Threat to Bitcoin: 99% Misunderstand The article clarifies widespread misconceptions about quantum computing's threat to Bitcoin. Key points: - Bitcoin uses digital signatures, not encryption, making "collect now, decrypt later" attacks irrelevant. - Quantum computers cannot crack Bitcoin mining (requires energy exceeding the sun's output) but threaten signatures via Shor's algorithm. - Only ~6.26M BTC (30-35% of supply) are at risk due to exposed public keys (legacy P2PK, reused addresses). Modern unused addresses remain safe. - Media exaggerations (e.g., "9-minute break") misrepresent research; actual quantum attacks require non-existent hardware and are likely decades away. - Bitcoin can upgrade (BIP-360 proposes post-quantum signatures), but the community must accelerate efforts (estimated 7-year timeline). - The real urgency stems from classical cryptographic risks (e.g., mathematical breakthroughs breaking secp256k1), not just quantum threats. - Recommendations: avoid address reuse, monitor BIP-360, migrate to quantum-resistant addresses when available, and ignore sensationalized headlines. Conclusion: The threat is real but distant. Panic is unwarranted, but complacency is dangerous. Proactive engineering is essential.

marsbit04/07 10:32

The Real Quantum Threat to Bitcoin: 99% of People Get It Wrong

marsbit04/07 10:32

Bitcoin Is At Major Risk From This Single Factor And It’s Not As Far Away As You Think; Google

Google's Quantum AI team has issued a warning that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are more vulnerable to quantum computing attacks than previously thought. The security of these digital assets relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECD-256), which was believed to require a quantum computer with millions of qubits to break. However, Google's optimized implementation of Shor’s algorithm suggests that only about 1,200–1,450 logical qubits and fewer than 500,000 physical qubits would be needed to compromise the system in minutes. While the threat is not immediate, Google emphasizes that the risk is closer than many assume and recommends transitioning to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). The company is collaborating with entities like Coinbase, the Stanford Institute for Blockchain Research, and the Ethereum Foundation, targeting a 2029 migration timeline. However, upgrading decentralized networks like Bitcoin will require broad consensus and complex protocol changes, posing significant implementation challenges. The crypto industry is urged to begin preparations to mitigate this emerging quantum risk.

bitcoinist04/03 01:01

Bitcoin Is At Major Risk From This Single Factor And It’s Not As Far Away As You Think; Google

bitcoinist04/03 01:01

Bitcoin Bombshell: Google’s 2029 Quantum Warning Sparks New Fear

Google's updated quantum threat model, moving its post-quantum cryptography migration deadline to 2029, has significant implications for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. A new whitepaper from Google Quantum AI, alongside researchers including Justin Drake and Dan Boneh, suggests breaking the secp256k1 elliptic curve cryptography (used in Bitcoin) may require far fewer quantum resources than previously believed. The paper estimates Shor’s algorithm could break ECDSA keys in minutes using under 500,000 physical qubits. This has shifted the narrative, with experts now urging immediate transition plans. The paper highlights the risk of "on-spend" attacks against live transactions due to Bitcoin's 10-minute block time, while downplaying quantum risks to proof-of-work mining. Google chose to validate its findings via a zero-knowledge proof instead of full circuit disclosure, citing responsible disclosure concerns. The broader call is for vulnerable cryptocurrency communities to begin migrating to post-quantum cryptography without delay.

bitcoinist03/31 18:31

Bitcoin Bombshell: Google’s 2029 Quantum Warning Sparks New Fear

bitcoinist03/31 18:31

Bitcoin’s Security Model May Shift As Quantum Computing Moves Forward: Analyst

Coinbase research lead David Duong warns that quantum computing advancements could threaten Bitcoin's security and economic model. Two primary risks exist: quantum computers could break cryptographic signatures to steal funds from addresses with exposed public keys (about 33% of Bitcoin's supply), and they could dominate mining by solving proofs of work much faster. While current quantum machines are not yet capable, experts are preparing for "Q-day" by developing quantum-resistant cryptography and promoting best practices like avoiding address reuse. The transition would require broad consensus and remains a complex, long-term challenge rather than an immediate threat.

bitcoinist01/08 00:02

Bitcoin’s Security Model May Shift As Quantum Computing Moves Forward: Analyst

bitcoinist01/08 00:02

a16z's 10,000-Word Essay (Part 1): The Misunderstood 'Quantum Supremacy', You Don't Need to Panic Until 2030

The article clarifies misconceptions about "quantum supremacy" and argues that cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQC) capable of breaking classical encryption (e.g., via Shor's algorithm) are unlikely to emerge before 2030. It distinguishes between post-quantum encryption and signatures, emphasizing that encryption requires immediate migration due to "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" (HNDL) attacks, where adversaries store encrypted data for future decryption. In contrast, post-quantum signatures are less urgency, as they are not vulnerable to HNDL—past signatures remain secure even after CRQC emergence. The article critiques exaggerated claims about quantum progress, noting that current hardware lacks the scale, fidelity, and error correction needed for CRQC. It also highlights that zkSNARKs, like signatures, are not susceptible to HNDL attacks. Migration strategies should prioritize encryption while adopting a measured approach for signatures to avoid unnecessary costs and risks.

marsbit12/12 06:20

a16z's 10,000-Word Essay (Part 1): The Misunderstood 'Quantum Supremacy', You Don't Need to Panic Until 2030

marsbit12/12 06:20

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