Michael Saylor Says Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Is Over, But This Is A Good Thing For Price

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-04-08Last updated on 2026-04-08

Abstract

Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, declares Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle is over, viewing it as a positive development for its price. He argues Bitcoin has achieved global acceptance as a form of digital capital, and its price will now be driven by institutional capital flows rather than cyclical patterns. Saylor believes future growth will be fueled by traditional bank credit and digital lending, which could lead to more stable appreciation. He warns the main risk is harmful changes to the Bitcoin protocol. In response, critic Peter Schiff disputes the consensus on Bitcoin's status, agreeing that capital flows dictate price but warning that outflows will drive it significantly lower, highlighting his continued skepticism of Bitcoin's long-term value.

Michael Saylor, the founder and executive chairman of Strategy, has declared that Bitcoin’s (BTC) traditional four-year halving cycle is over, viewing this shift as an ultimately positive step for the cryptocurrency’s price. He argued that BTC has now achieved global acceptance, and this transition marks a more mature phase that could support stronger, more consistent price appreciation for the flagship cryptocurrency.

Why Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Close Could Boost Price

In an X post dated April 4, Saylor announced that “Bitcoin has won,” suggesting that the cryptocurrency has officially secured its dominant position in the global financial system. He explained that the world now widely accepts BTC as a form of digital capital, reflecting the cryptocurrency’s deep integration as a means of payment and investment for everyday users.

The Strategy founder further argued that Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle has ended, and that price movements are now guided by the inflows and outflows of capital from institutions and investors. This shift seems to be gradually moving BTC away from the sharp bull-and-bear market patterns tied to past halving cycles.

Saylor also added that Bitcoin’s growth in the coming years will largely depend on traditional bank credit and emerging digital lending channels. These funding sources are expected to play a bigger role in shaping how quickly and how far Bitcoin’s value could expand in the future. Moreover, the adoption of established financial instruments could help stabilize BTC’s price trajectory, which is often influenced by speculation and volatility.

Concluding his post, Saylor warned that the greatest risks come from having poor ideas that lead to unnecessary or damaging changes to the Bitcoin protocol. He cautioned that such misguided updates could harm the network if allowed to take root. Essentially, the Strategy founder is urging developers and users to protect the protocol from ill-advised alterations to preserve continued growth and success.

BTC Critic Fires Back At Saylor’s Remarks

Responding directly to Saylor’s post, global economist and Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff pushed back against the remarks. He argued that any claimed consensus about BTC’s status as digital capital exists only in Saylor’s mind. However, Schiff did agree that capital flows will ultimately determine Bitcoin’s price direction.

The critic warned that when capital eventually flows out of BTC, the price will be driven significantly lower. His comments reflect a prolonged skepticism over Bitcoin’s long-term outlook and its status as “digital gold” or a store of value.

While Saylor remains a strong advocate for BTC, consistently accumulating the cryptocurrency through Strategy, Schiff continues to criticize the asset, often comparing it to gold. In one of his latest posts, the economist noted that Bitcoin recently climbed above $70,000 but was immediately hit with a wave of selling pressure, leading to a major pullback. He emphasized that, at present, BTC’s upside potential appears limited while its downside risk remains significant—an outlook he believes is the direct opposite of gold.

BTC trading at $68,963 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Trending Cryptos

Related Questions

QAccording to Michael Saylor, what has replaced Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle as the main driver of its price?

AAccording to Michael Saylor, Bitcoin's price movements are now guided by the inflows and outflows of capital from institutions and investors, replacing the traditional four-year halving cycle.

QWhat does Michael Saylor believe Bitcoin has achieved, which marks a more mature phase for the cryptocurrency?

AMichael Saylor believes Bitcoin has achieved global acceptance and is now widely accepted as a form of digital capital, marking a more mature phase.

QWho responded critically to Michael Saylor's remarks and what was their main point of agreement?

AGlobal economist and Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff responded critically. He agreed that capital flows will ultimately determine Bitcoin's price direction.

QWhat does Michael Saylor warn is the greatest risk to Bitcoin's continued growth and success?

AMichael Saylor warns that the greatest risk comes from poor ideas that lead to unnecessary or damaging changes to the Bitcoin protocol.

QHow does Peter Schiff's outlook on Bitcoin's risk and potential compare to that of gold?

APeter Schiff believes that at present, Bitcoin's upside potential appears limited while its downside risk remains significant, which is the direct opposite of his outlook for gold.

Related Reads

The "Impossible Triad" Is Fundamentally a Pseudo-Problem

The article argues that blockchain's fundamental limitation is not the scalability trilemma (decentralization, scalability, security), which has been largely solved, but the lack of **privacy** and, until recently, clear **legitimacy**. Blockchain is described as a slow, expensive, globally shared computer whose core value is censorship resistance and verifiability. While ideal for native digital assets like money (e.g., stablecoins), its default transparency acts as a **tax**, exposing all transactions and enabling MEV extraction, which deters serious institutional capital. Simultaneously, its permissionless nature created regulatory ambiguity. The piece contends that **privacy** is the missing critical feature. It rejects the false choice between total transparency and complete anonymity. Modern cryptography (like zero-knowledge proofs) enables **compliant privacy**: users can prove facts (solvency, KYC status, compliance) without revealing the underlying sensitive data (specific holdings, identities). This preserves auditability for regulators and eliminates the leak of financial information. With recent regulatory progress (e.g., the GENIUS Act) addressing legitimacy, adding default, provably compliant privacy becomes a pure upgrade. It transforms blockchain from a costly, public ledger into a confidential settlement layer, finally bridging the gap to mainstream institutional and individual adoption of on-chain finance.

链捕手4h ago

The "Impossible Triad" Is Fundamentally a Pseudo-Problem

链捕手4h ago

Optical Chips: Collective Capacity Expansion

The global optical chip industry is experiencing a massive wave of expansion driven by surging AI data center demand. Major players across the US, Japan, Europe, and China are aggressively investing to ramp up production capacity. In the US, Coherent is expanding its 6-inch Indium Phosphide (InP) semiconductor fab in Texas, supported by CHIPS Act funding and a $2 billion strategic investment from NVIDIA. Lumentum is building a new factory for InP optical devices, and Nokia is scaling its advanced photonic chip packaging and testing capabilities. NVIDIA's investments aim to secure future supply of critical lasers and optical interconnect products for AI infrastructure. Japan's JX Advanced Metals, a leading InP substrate supplier, plans a multi-billion yen investment to increase its capacity 7-10 times, strengthening its grip on the crucial upstream materials market. In Europe, IQE and Tower Semiconductor settled a patent dispute and signed a multi-year InP epitaxial wafer supply agreement, highlighting that next-generation silicon photonics platforms will integrate high-performance InP components. STMicroelectronics and Sivers Semiconductors are also expanding silicon photonics production and partnerships. China is rapidly building out its domestic supply chain. Dongshan Precision's subsidiary, Source Photonics, announced a $12 billion project to expand optical chip and module production. Companies like Sanan Optoelectronics and Yunnan Germanium are scaling up InP chip manufacturing and substrate production, moving towards vertical integration from materials to modules. While debate continues around the exact future architecture—whether CPO (Co-Packaged Optics), NPO, or pluggables will dominate—analysts like Morgan Stanley argue the underlying driver is unchangeable: the explosive growth in bandwidth demand. This will inevitably increase the volume of optical engines, lasers, and related content per GPU, regardless of the final technical path. The competition for "more light" in the AI era has intensified into a global, full-chain capacity race.

marsbit6h ago

Optical Chips: Collective Capacity Expansion

marsbit6h ago

Stablecoins Finally Find Real Yield: An In-Depth Look at On-Chain Reinsurance Re | A Conversation with Re Founder Karan Saroya

Stablecoin Real Yield Found: A Deep Dive into On-Chain Reinsurance with Re's Karan Saroya As stablecoin supply exceeds $170 billion, the search for sustainable, non-speculative yield intensifies. Re, an on-chain reinsurance platform, provides an answer: connecting stablecoin capital to the trillion-dollar traditional reinsurance market. Re operates as a regulated reinsurer, accepting stablecoin deposits as collateral to back US insurance companies. These insurers pay premiums, generating yield that flows back to on-chain depositors. Currently supporting 35 insurers and underwriting $500 million, Re projects scaling to over $1 billion soon. Key insights from a Bankless podcast with founder Karan Saroya and investor Avichal of Electric Capital: 1. **Uncorrelated, Real-World Yield:** Re offers stablecoin holders access to reinsurance returns (targeting 12-14%+), an asset class entirely separate from crypto or equity markets. 2. **Operational Efficiency via Smart Contracts:** Re replaces traditional, labor-intensive capital fundraising with smart contracts, allowing a ~12-person team to compete with industry giants. 3. **Regulatory Leverage:** For every $1 of collateral, regulations allow backing $5-7 in written premiums. This leverage amplifies returns from the underlying risk-free rate. 4. **DeFi Integration:** Depositors receive receipt tokens, which can be used in protocols like Morpho for "looping," potentially pushing yields to 18-20%+. 5. **The "DeFi Mullet" Model:** A compliant front-end (regulated reinsurer) paired with a decentralized back-end (smart contracts, DeFi capital markets). 6. **RE Governance Token:** Modeled on Lloyd's of London, the token governs the central capital pool's allocation, counterparty acceptance, and parameters. 7. **Real Economic Impact:** Capital funds real-world productivity (factories, clinics, businesses) via insurance, moving beyond crypto's internal loops. The discussion highlights a pivotal moment: DeFi's supply-side infrastructure is now met by real demand for productive yield, potentially kickstarting a flywheel where vast on-chain stablecoin capital seeks these real-world returns.

链捕手7h ago

Stablecoins Finally Find Real Yield: An In-Depth Look at On-Chain Reinsurance Re | A Conversation with Re Founder Karan Saroya

链捕手7h ago

1996 or 1999? Walsh's First Test is 'How to View AI'

"1996 or 1999? Wall's First Big Test Is 'How to View AI'" Federal Reserve Chairman Wall's initial challenge is not whether to raise or cut rates, but a more fundamental judgment: what kind of boom is the current AI boom? This will determine the Fed's policy path and define his legacy. Economics is split between two opposing views, according to reporter Nick Timiraos. One sees imminent productivity gains that will increase supply and cool inflation, allowing the Fed to hold steady. The other argues that while productivity benefits are distant, demand shocks are here now, and waiting for data confirmation risks missing the intervention window, forcing sharper rate hikes later. Wall has signaled a leaning toward the first view, echoing 1996-era Alan Greenspan, who embraced strong, productivity-driven growth without fear of inflation. However, Wall faces a different macro environment than Greenspan did, with tariff pressures, expanding fiscal deficits, and diminishing globalization benefits, which could force more significant inflation pressures even if AI benefits materialize. Wall's logic, expressed before taking office, is that AI-driven productivity gains won't show in official data for years. If the Fed waits for confirmation, it might mistakenly tighten policy and choke off the very growth that could suppress inflation. This argues for using forward-looking narratives over lagging data. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee presents a key counter-argument. He distinguishes between expected and unexpected productivity booms. A widely anticipated boom, like the current AI wave, can cause people to spend future wealth gains in advance, overheating the economy before productivity actually rises, thus requiring preemptive rate hikes. He cites rising costs for AI data centers as evidence of such overheating. Fed Governor Christopher Waller offers a rebuttal to Goolsbee, noting the "expected spending" mechanism only works if people can borrow against future income, which many households cannot do due to borrowing constraints. Wall also faces a paradox related to his desire to reduce the Fed's use of "forward guidance" (pre-announcing policy moves). This practice was established in 1999 when Greenspan began signaling hikes to avoid market shocks. If the economy follows a less optimistic path, Wall may be forced to choose between using the guidance he wants to abolish or risking market volatility by staying silent. The ultimate question defining Wall's first major test remains: Is this 1996 or 1999?

marsbit8h ago

1996 or 1999? Walsh's First Test is 'How to View AI'

marsbit8h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

How to Buy 4

Welcome to HTX.com! We've made purchasing 4 (4) simple and convenient. Follow our step-by-step guide to embark on your crypto journey.Step 1: Create Your HTX AccountUse your email or phone number to sign up for a free account on HTX. Experience a hassle-free registration journey and unlock all features.Get My AccountStep 2: Go to Buy Crypto and Choose Your Payment MethodCredit/Debit Card: Use your Visa or Mastercard to buy 4 (4) instantly.Balance: Use funds from your HTX account balance to trade seamlessly.Third Parties: We've added popular payment methods such as Google Pay and Apple Pay to enhance convenience.P2P: Trade directly with other users on HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): We offer tailor-made services and competitive exchange rates for traders.Step 3: Store Your 4 (4)After purchasing your 4 (4), store it in your HTX account. Alternatively, you can send it elsewhere via blockchain transfer or use it to trade other cryptocurrencies.Step 4: Trade 4 (4)Easily trade 4 (4) on HTX's spot market. Simply access your account, select your trading pair, execute your trades, and monitor in real-time. We offer a user-friendly experience for both beginners and seasoned traders.

4.3k Total ViewsPublished 2025.10.20Updated 2026.06.02

How to Buy 4

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of 4 (4) are presented below.

活动图片