Author: Citrini Research
Compilation: TechFlow DeepTide
DeepTide Guide: While analysts across the entire market are calculating the shortages of HBM and Taiwan glass for data centers, what's truly scarce is 'attention' itself. The three-year AI narrative has led to excessive capital crowding, but the rest of the world is still turning: for example, the life science cycle has bottomed out, senior housing is bursting at the seams, sports venue tickets are selling out—these forgotten sectors are quietly repairing their fundamentals... For investors, the biggest Alpha right now may not be in the AGI timeline, but in those 'small themes' that no one is modeling.
Note: The following is a compilation of the core content from Citrini Research's latest report. The original is paid content; this article is assembled based on its public summary and multiple sources.
The Attention Tax
Did you know? Computing power, electricity, HBM, NAND, the concrete and transformers used to build data centers, that special glass from Taiwan, and the alphabet soup technologies that convert light into data—all are in short supply.
Yes, of course you know. But among the AI-driven shortages, there's another, even scarcer input factor: attention.
Every marginal hour of analyst brainpower (or, say, analyst token budget) has been pulled towards a single trade. We've experienced this firsthand, having spent much of the last three years tracking (and occasionally shaping) that narrative.
But myopia has its cost, and we think it's time to look a bit broader.
The AI trade—at the very least—is crowded, even if it's right. We think the risk of 'AI fatigue' is high and are likely to see some degree of capital rotation into things people seemingly stopped caring about.
The mechanism we care about is simple: capital floods into one theme, and peripheral stocks become underweighted, which is interesting in itself. These stocks also suffer from being under-modeled and ignored.
We mentioned this when discussing the life science cycle—in our view, that cycle has bottomed. Five years ago, we would have seen these stocks bounce off lows, pre-emptively reflecting the upcycle. But now they've been stuck in the mire of 52-week lows because no one wants to shift risk into the inventory digestion recovery when 'DRAM is the bottleneck.'
The world keeps turning. The gap between forgotten expectations and a changing reality has always been where thematic investing makes money. Attention is a finite resource, but it can shift rapidly during a simple momentum reversal. Sometimes, when it shifts, it can bring a new focus into investor consciousness, even if momentum swings back to the upside.
We are revisiting our 'small themes'—those trend- and catalyst-driven trades that are not decade-long market disruption stories. Instead, they are interesting, low-radar narratives in less hot sectors that could deliver surprises. Five themes, none requiring an opinion on the AGI timeline or tokenomics. Baby boomers moving into senior living. Sports venues selling out. A two-decade exchange monopoly facing real competition for the first time. Fintech recovery. And airline stocks, where our two favorite names have spent eighteen months being punished for reasons completely unrelated to their ability to make money.
Our macro view is that markets will continue to move higher but will also see noticeably more 10-15% sharp dips, driven more by positioning than fundamentals. This means we should hold onto our semiconductor names, but perhaps shouldn't let them be the only things on the map. For now, we've been gradually trimming AI exposure over the past month, because everyone with an internet connection is now wearing the bottleneck investor hat, and we're becoming increasingly interested in what the AI Dutch disease has left behind.
Theme 1: Airline Stocks, Punished for 18 Months for Reasons Unrelated to Profitability
Citrini is bullish on Delta and United, and has been for over two years. In November 2024, they wrote about the 'structural reset' in the airline industry, arguing that these two major carriers would be the winners.
Two years later, Citrini remains bullish. The report points out that the decline of these two stocks over the past 18 months has been almost entirely driven by macro factors—first tariff-induced inflation fears, then oil price spikes from the Iran war—with little to do with the airlines' own profitability.
According to Business Insider, Citrini believes that as the economy moves past the shadows of tariff inflation and oil shocks, the growth prospects for these two companies remain strong. The report highlights a key trend: the K-shaped economy is intensifying, and the major carriers are not resisting this divergence but are actively embracing it—tilting towards premiumization and increasing revenue per passenger.
Furthermore, the 2026 World Cup is seen as a near-term catalyst, with the global event's demand for international travel directly benefiting airline stocks.
Theme 2: Senior Housing, 56% Growth in 80+ Population Over Ten Years, Facilities Far From Enough
Citrini's second theme points to an unsexy but highly certain sector: senior housing.
The core data is stark: the U.S. population aged 80 and over is projected to grow by over 56% in the next decade, far outpacing the roughly 5% growth of the total population. In 2026 alone, there will be 1 million new households aged 80+, doubling to 2 million by 2029.
The supply of facilities is lagging far behind. Citrini notes that this industry has been overlooked largely because it's not flashy—lacking appeal next to AI and semiconductors. But the baby boomer generation is collectively entering advanced age, a trend driven purely by demographics, independent of any policy assumptions or technological breakthroughs.
According to Business Insider, Citrini named three specific stocks: senior housing REITs Welltower and Janus Living, and senior living facility operator Brookdale Senior Living.
Theme 3: Live Entertainment, The Best-Performing Asset Class of the Past Decade, Beating Tech Stocks
Citrini calls live entertainment the best-performing asset class of the past decade, even outpacing tech stocks.
The report's core thesis is that 'being there' is becoming a luxury in itself. Consumers are willing to pay a high premium for physical presence. Sports franchises, concerts, combat sports events, and even movie theaters are all benefiting from this desire for 'authentic presence.' Citrini writes: 'Sports franchises, and more broadly all in-person events, are benefiting from the desire of people to be 'there'. That comes with greater opportunities to monetize through attendance, premiumization, and promotion.'
According to Business Insider, Citrini specifically mentioned three companies:
TKO Group, the parent company of WWE and UFC, with the report emphasizing its strong financial growth and high-value partnerships. Cinemark, reflecting the trend of consumers returning to theaters. And IMAX, representing the direction of enhanced viewing experiences—audiences don't just want to watch a movie, they want an immersive experience. IMAX shares hit a record high earlier this month.
Theme 4: Exchange Monopoly Competition, CME's Two-Decade Reign Faces a Real Rival for the First Time
The most institutionally-focused theme in Citrini's report points to a shift in the U.S. futures exchange landscape.
CME Group holds roughly a 98% share of the U.S. interest rate derivatives market, a near-absolute monopoly maintained for over two decades. But the emergence of FMX Futures Exchange is changing this dynamic.
Incubated by BGC Group (founded by current U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick), FMX received CFTC approval in January 2024 and officially began trading in the second half of 2025. Its shareholder list reads like a Wall Street all-star roster: Bank of America, Barclays, Citadel Securities, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Jump Trading, Morgan Stanley, Tower Research Capital, and Wells Fargo all hold minority stakes, valuing it around $667 million.
FMX's competitive strategy is three-pronged: lower transaction fees, partnership with LCH for margin savings, and incentive programs for liquidity providers. In February 2025, FMX set a single-day trading volume record of 9,500 contracts.
CME isn't without its vulnerabilities. Just last week (June 22), CME's Direct platform suffered a four-hour outage, not the first infrastructure disruption. FMX has previously stated publicly that CME's near-monopoly makes such incidents a systemic risk, and the market needs a reliable alternative exchange for resilience.
Of course, the disruptor's path isn't easy. During the tariff turbulence of April 2025, FMX's volume plummeted by over two-thirds, as traders instinctively flowed back to the deeper liquidity of CME during heightened volatility. But as markets normalized, FMX's volume has been gradually recovering. Bank of America estimates that CME earns roughly $2 billion in revenue from Treasury-related business alone—a profit pool large enough to warrant long-term investment from challengers.
Theme 5: Fintech Recovery, 2026's Most Beaten-Down Sector Is Bouncing Back
Citrini's fifth theme is fintech.
Fintech stocks were among the worst performers in 2026. As of the end of May, SoFi was down about 35% year-to-date, with Robinhood and Upstart each down about 25%. But starting in late May, the sector showed clear signs of a rebound.
SoFi's catalyst was the launch of the SoFiUSD stablecoin, making it the first U.S.-licensed bank to issue its own stablecoin. Its stock jumped 12% on the news that day. Fundamentally, SoFi's Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.1 billion, with record loan origination of $12.2 billion, a 68% year-over-year increase, and a member base of 14.7 million. CEO Anthony Noto framed it as a 'strategic entry into the digital asset space' and is working with Mastercard to develop global payment settlement functionality.
Robinhood, after its 2022-2023 trough, has completed a U-shaped recovery, with full-year 2025 revenue up 45% year-over-year and net profit doubling. The acquisition of crypto exchange Bitstamp, the launch of the Gold credit card, and growth in Gold subscribers to 4.3 million are all driving its transformation from a 'trading app' to a 'financial super app.'
Upstart saw a leadership change in May, with co-founder Paul Gu taking over as CEO, and the narrative around its AI credit platform regaining market attention around the same time.
Citrini's logic is clear: While everyone was looking at semiconductors and data centers, fintech was forgotten to the point of extreme valuation levels. But the fundamentals of these companies haven't deteriorated; they've actually improved. Once attention shifts even slightly, the rebound potential is significant.
