芯片狂欢降温?大摩 Wilson:资金正转向微软、亚马逊等 AI 超算巨头

链捕手Published on 2026-07-06Last updated on 2026-07-06

Abstract

美国股市短期内或难创新高,资金正从今年涨幅显著的半导体股票流向AI超大规模云计算商(即“超算巨头”)。摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson指出,半导体板块动能正在消退,投资者开始转向今年表现相对落后的微软、亚马逊和Meta等公司。他认为这一轮动发生在股市整体震荡偏弱的背景下,大盘指数将持续承压。 费城半导体指数自高位已回调近14%,估值压力显现,尽管其自去年9月以来累计涨幅仍高达123%。美光科技的乐观业绩也未能持续提振板块,市场在等待英伟达等公司提供更多AI需求线索。 Wilson更看好超算巨头,认为其在AI生态中具备吸引力,且强劲的核心业务能提供支撑。数据显示,相关股票自去年9月以来累计下跌2%,存在补涨空间。但他也提醒,这些公司可能会下调资本支出计划以回应市场的过度投入担忧。 此外,轮动可能不仅限于科技内部。Wilson和摩根大通的Mislav Matejka均认为,消费可选、交通运输和生物科技等板块也有望受益于资金从芯片股流出,下半年市场涨势或向科技以外扩散。Wilson维持标普500年底8000点的目标价,意味着较当前约有7%的上涨空间,但短期波动风险仍需注意。

作者:卜淑情,华尔街见闻

美国股市短期内难以再创新高,资金正从今年涨幅最大的半导体股票流出,转向AI超大规模云计算商(hyperscalers)。

摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在最新报告中指出,半导体板块的动能正在消退,投资者开始转向今年表现落后的AI超算巨头,包括微软、亚马逊和Meta。

他认为,这一轮轮动发生在整体股市震荡偏弱的背景下,大盘指数将持续承压。Wilson同时将标普500年底目标价维持在8000点,较当前水平仍有约7%的上涨空间。

这一判断对市场的直接影响在于:此前领涨AI行情的芯片股面临估值压力,而超算巨头凭借强劲的核心业务有望成为资金的新落脚点。与此同时,摩根大通策略师Mislav Matejka也持相似观点,认为下半年市场涨势将向科技板块以外扩散。

芯片动能消退,估值压力显现

费城半导体指数自上月创下历史高点以来已累计下跌近14%,市场对估值泡沫的担忧持续升温。尽管如此,该指数自去年9月以来仍累计上涨123%,显示此前涨幅之大。

美光科技上月发布超预期销售预测,却未能提振芯片股持续走高,进一步印证了板块动能的衰减。目前,投资者正等待英伟达等公司发声,以获取AI芯片需求的更多线索。

Wilson指出,动能的瓦解正发生在指数中权重较大的公司身上,这将令美国主要基准指数在短期内持续承压。标普500指数自6月初触及峰值后已逐步回落。

超算巨头:AI 生态中的价值洼地

Wilson表示,在近期更倾向于超算巨头而非半导体相关股票。他认为,微软、亚马逊、Meta等公司在AI生态系统中具备吸引力,核心在于其强劲的基础业务提供了坚实支撑。

相比之下,据彭博数据,瑞银集团编制的超算巨头一篮子股票自去年9月以来累计下跌2%,与半导体板块的涨幅形成鲜明反差,也意味着这一群体存在相对补涨空间。

不过,Wilson同时预计,超算巨头可能开始下调其资本支出计划的预期,以回应近期市场对其AI过度投入的担忧。资本开支展望将成为下一阶段投资者关注的核心议题。

轮动范围扩大,科技以外机会浮现

Wilson的轮动逻辑并不局限于超算板块。他还看好消费可选、交通运输和生物科技板块从芯片股的资金流出中受益。

摩根大通策略师Mislav Matejka与Wilson观点一致,认为市场涨势将在下半年向科技板块以外延伸。"AI不太可能是市场上唯一的故事,"Matejka在研究报告中写道。

值得一提的是,Wilson此前曾准确预判美国股市将在地缘政治风险中凭借强劲企业盈利保持韧性,这为其当前判断增添了一定参考价值。其年底标普500目标价8000点,意味着从当前水平仍有约7%的潜在涨幅,但短期波动风险不容忽视。

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Related Questions

Q摩根士丹利的Michael Wilson在报告中指出,当前股市资金正在发生怎样的板块轮动?

A资金正从今年涨幅最大的半导体(芯片)股票流出,转向今年表现相对落后的AI超大规模云计算商(AI超算巨头),如微软、亚马逊和Meta。

Q报告为何认为AI超算巨头目前具备吸引力?

A报告认为,微软、亚马逊、Meta等AI超算巨头在AI生态系统中具备吸引力,主要原因在于其强劲的核心基础业务提供了坚实的价值支撑。同时,自去年9月以来,瑞银编制的超算巨头一篮子股票累计下跌2%,与半导体板块的巨大涨幅形成反差,存在相对补涨空间。

Q除了从半导体股转向AI超算巨头,报告还看好哪些板块可能受益于本轮轮动?

A除了AI超算巨头,报告还看好消费可选、交通运输和生物科技板块可能从芯片股的资金流出中受益。摩根大通的Mislav Matejka也认为市场涨势将在下半年向科技板块以外延伸。

Q报告如何评价当前芯片板块(半导体)的市场状况?

A报告认为,芯片板块的上涨动能正在消退,估值压力显现。费城半导体指数自上月创历史高点后已累计下跌近14%,市场对其估值泡沫的担忧升温。即使像美光科技发布超预期销售预测,也未能提振板块持续走高,显示出动能的衰减。

QWilson对标普500指数的年底目标价和短期走势有何判断?

AWilson将标普500指数的年底目标价维持在8000点,这意味着较报告发布时的水平仍有约7%的潜在上涨空间。但他同时判断,在整体股市震荡偏弱的背景下,大盘指数短期内将持续承压,难以再创新高,短期波动风险不容忽视。

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