加密熊市创业指南第三弹：预测市场AI跟单Bot

marsbitPublished on 2026-05-01Last updated on 2026-05-01

原创|Odaily星球日报(@OdailyChina)

作者|Wenser(@wenser 2010 )

Meme 币热潮逐渐远去,迎面走来的是预测市场交易热潮。

今年 3 月,预测市场交易量同比增长超 10%,交易量突破 257 亿美元。除去美伊局势带动的地缘政治相关押注以外,NCAA 等体育赛事、加密货币涨跌押注也为该赛道贡献颇多。与此同时,Polymarket 开放的 cli、Skill 以及 AI Agent 支付等应用及 API 接口,也为 AI Agent 操作预测市场交易大开方便之门。得益于 Polymarket 目前开放的前端界面、刚刚更新为 V2 版本的 API 接口以及各类盈利榜单,或许下一个市场热门创业赛道就是预测市场 AI 跟单 Bot。

Odaily星球日报提醒用户,以下内容仅为观点分享,不构成投资建议或推荐背书,注意工具使用风险或跟单投资本金损失风险。

为什么需要预测市场 AI 跟单 Bot?

从盈利面上看,根据此前《预测市场 10 大真相:Polymarket 172 万地址中仅 3.14%“真正赢家”》一文中的论文研究数据,截至去年 12 月,172 万 Polymarket 地址中,盈利玩家占比超 32%;到了今年 4 月,预测市场数据平台 Parity 调查结果显示,Polymarket 平台用户量增加至 243 万,但盈利玩家占比仍然高达 31%,其中:

  • 盈利超 100 万美元的账户占比 0.0043%,为 104 人;
  • 盈利区间为 10 万-100 万美元的账户占比 0.05%,为 1165 人;
  • 盈利区间为 1 万-10 万美元的账户占比为 0.4%,为 9654 人;
  • 盈利区间为 1000-1 万美元的账户占比为 2.23%,为 54127 人;
  • 盈利区间为 100-1000 美元的账户占比为 5.24%,为 127342 人;
  • 盈利区间为 0-100 美元的账户占比为 23.09%,为 561422 人。

另据 Polymarket 官方排行榜,历史盈利榜单中,用户 Theo4 以 2205 万美元盈利高居榜首,此前其曾在 2024 年大选押注中豪掷 850 万美元,盈利超 1370 万美元。

看得出来,尽管造富效应并不如曾经的 Meme 币那般骇人,但预测市场确确实实是一条掘金之路。

而正如《预测市场 10 大真相:Polymarket 172 万地址中仅 3.14%“真正赢家”》一文的研究结论所说,预测市场存在约 3.14% 的“技能型赢家”,他们凭借专业技能、新闻敏锐性等能力,一次又一次地在押注事件中选中了最终的事实性结果,获得了认知的直接奖励。

早前我们曾采访过的“Polymarket 中文区第一人”、25 天斩获超 220 倍收益的 Fengdubiying 也曾经说过,“Polymarket 不限制跟单,你可以清晰地看到押注事件中的最终赢家和顶级持仓人”。

不仅如此,Polymarket 等预测市场和 Meme 币讲求“跟单要快、卖出要帅”不一样,押注跟单不需要考虑是否会成为巨鲸或车头的“退出流动性”,大家搏的都是对事件结果的准确预判,而对手盘也不是事件发起人或者预测市场平台,而是与自己认知相左的“持有 Yes/No 筹码的反方”。

当然,和 Meme 币的 Dev 跑路砸盘等风险不一样,预测市场跟单承担的风险也是客观存在的,一场比赛、一个事件、一次政治选举,过程当中可能充满许多次的概率涨跌,更有可能发生爆冷出局、事件反转、黑马出线等结果,盈利数量大、胜率高并不意味着每一次跟单都是稳赢。

预测市场 AI 跟单 Bot 的核心竞争力是什么?

说完预测市场 AI 跟单 Bot 的可能性和市场需求,下一步自然是讨论工具的具体功能和优劣判断标准。

在笔者看来,预测市场 AI 跟单 Bot 的核心功能点在于以下 3 方面:

其一,是充足的“高胜率地址”。除去月度、周度等不同时间段、政治、体育、电竞等不同赛道的盈利榜单以外,预测市场 AI 跟单 Bot 与 Meme 币跟单 Bot 并没有太大区别,关键点仍然是一批可以交叉验证、胜率颇高的预测市场地址或专业玩家。“没有慧根,就要会跟”,这句话的前提是有人值得跟随。这方面,通过数据筛选是重中之重,为对应的高胜率玩家打上精准且可供参考的标签更是必不可少。

其二,是快速的跟进策略。无论是高胜率玩家的抄底买入,还是高胜率玩家的及时卖出或者等待事件结果判定,预测市场的跟单仍然存在成本差异,因而跟单速度也是工具的核心功能;但预测市场 AI 跟单 Bot 也可以制定不同的卖出策略以供用户选择。

其三, 是高效的押注事件筛选。和能否在纷繁复杂的 Meme 币市场中选到那只“金狗”一样,在预测市场中的必修课是能否在事件繁杂的押注之中筛选出一批时限较短、赔率适中、流动性充足的标的,这也是跟单工具必须考虑的功能。当然,能做到押注资金总额、高胜率玩家标签、结算规则解释等多方面的筛选,那就更好了。

预测市场现有跟单产品简要盘点:Polybot、Kreo、Chance

Polybot:为空投而生的自动化下注工具

官方账号:https://x.com/TradePolyBot

该工具主打概念为“服务于 Polymarket 代币 POLY 空投交互”,且用户能够借助该 Bot 设置自动交易,实现“一分钟配置套利策略,7*24 小时自动运行”的效果。

官方宣传图

Kreo:个人开发者推出的跟单工具

官方账号:https://x.com/kreoapp

由前小米集团工程师、独立开发者 wuli 推出,主打速度快、功能多。据官方账号最新推文消息,目前最新版已添加如下功能:跟单任务管理器;视频与图片版本的盈亏分享素材定制;批量编辑跟单任务;加密涨跌市场实时展示;防止重复跟单;联盟体育赛事自动跟单筛选;查看加密涨跌事件的前 50 名押注者。根据官方 bot 界面信息,目前该工具用户量已突破 13000 人。

官方 Bot 页面

Chance:预测市场聚合平台

官方账号:https://x.com/Chance_

该平台主要优势为聚合了包括 Kalshi、Polymarket、Opinion、Predict.fun 等多个预测市场平台,且具备一定的聪明钱、日历等分析功能。值得一提的是,该平台目前处于早起测试版本,或存在 Bug 或其他风险,Odaily星球日报 提醒用户谨慎使用,切勿投入过多资金或注意安全风险。

官网交易工具页面

官网页面

结语:无论牛熊,卖铲子的人永远能赚钱

曾几何时,pump.fun 带动的 Meme 币热潮之下,gmgn.ai、abot、Axiom 等跟单 Bot 赚的盆满钵满;而现在,预测市场“大年”的时间背景下,预测市场的跟单 Bot 或将于世界杯等一系列热门体育赛事、政治事件之中迎来一波爆发。如果有需要媒体宣传或商务合作的项目方,欢迎与 Odaily星球日报 联系,大家一起为加密世界的建设添砖加瓦。

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10 天赚 10 万美元,OpenClaw 在预测市场的实战经验访谈

跨链、跟单、闪电下单......六款聚合器让你领跑预测市场

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