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Bitcoin OG selling eases as dormant BTC movement hits 4-year low: Galaxy

According to research from Galaxy, the movement of long-dormant Bitcoin reached its lowest level in four years during the second quarter, indicating a significant reduction in selling pressure from long-term holders. The metric "coin days destroyed," which emphasizes older coins, showed a similar decline. Analyst Alex Thorn noted that earlier spikes in activity were driven by veteran holders, or "OGs," taking profits, mirroring patterns from the 2017 bull market. The current low level of dormant coin movement suggests these long-term investors have largely slowed their distribution after a period of elevated selling in 2024 and 2025, opting instead to hold their assets.

cointelegraph前天 09:40

Bitcoin OG selling eases as dormant BTC movement hits 4-year low: Galaxy

cointelegraph前天 09:40

Bitcoin: Rising oil prices keep BTC in check – Long-term holders in limbo

Bitcoin faces mixed signals as it tests $64,500. While traditional investors added modest inflows, long-term holders (those holding coins for 155+ days) remain a focal point of caution. On-chain data shows this group is still selling at a loss, with their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) at 0.94, indicating 6% losses—a significant improvement from earlier 27% losses but not yet a sign of full conviction. Market activity is currently dominated by short-term holders, as indicated by the Exchange Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, suggesting a more relaxed selling phase. Exchange reserves have also declined slightly. However, macroeconomic risks pose a headwind. Rising oil prices, driven by Middle East tensions, threaten to reignite inflation concerns. This could dampen the risk-on sentiment crucial for Bitcoin and potentially lead US investors to reduce exposure via spot Bitcoin ETFs. The market's recovery hinges on balancing these improving on-chain dynamics against persistent external economic pressures.

ambcrypto07/21 04:02

Bitcoin: Rising oil prices keep BTC in check – Long-term holders in limbo

ambcrypto07/21 04:02

Why analyst expects Bitcoin ETF will follow gold’s ‘triumph and pain’ pattern

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs could follow the historical 'triumph and pain' pattern of gold ETFs, experiencing dramatic gains, painful drawdowns, and extended recoveries before ultimately surging to new record highs. Despite significant outflows and a price drop from over $126,000 to around $64,000, with a brief dip below $60,000, spot Bitcoin ETF holdings remain relatively resilient with only 10% of holders exiting compared to deeper outflows in gold ETFs. While long-term Bitcoin holders have so far refrained from becoming net sellers, a key risk is their potential shift to selling. Analyst caution notes that renewed geopolitical tensions in West Asia and rising oil prices above $80 could act as headwinds, capping Bitcoin's upside in the near term and testing its role as a hedge asset.

ambcrypto07/18 21:03

Why analyst expects Bitcoin ETF will follow gold’s ‘triumph and pain’ pattern

ambcrypto07/18 21:03

Bitcoin Shifts Towards Consolidation, Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Significantly Eases

Bitcoin's Bottoming Process Shows Signs of Shifting Dynamics Bitcoin's bottom formation is ongoing, but key characteristics are changing. The capitulation selling by long-term holders (LTHs), a primary source of selling pressure this cycle, has begun to cool from its recent peak. Buyers successfully absorbed the selling at the June lows, and price is now recovering to challenge overhead resistance. The market is testing higher resistance levels. Bitcoin reacted more strongly to soft inflation data than major equity indices, signaling sellers may be exhausted and buyers are waiting for a catalyst. Its correlation with stocks is weakening while its inverse relationship with the USD is deepening, suggesting liquidity dynamics are now more influential than risk sentiment. On-chain, price sits between the network's Realized Price (a historical bear market floor) and the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis near $69k, a key resistance level where recent buyers break even. LTH profit-taking has largely dried up, and losses now dominate realized on-chain volume—a typical late bear market signal. Crucially, the pace of LTH capitulation has started to decline. Derivatives markets show bearish positions are being unwound, with put/call ratios falling and crash protection costs moderating. However, this derisking hasn't been accompanied by significant spot buying, a missing link for sustained recovery. US spot ETF outflows have slowed but not reversed. In conclusion, foundational elements for a bottom are forming: LTH selling is easing, low-point selling was absorbed, and the market is responding to positive macro cues. The next critical test is whether spot-driven buying can push price through and hold above the STH cost basis near $69k. The follow-through is not yet confirmed.

marsbit07/17 01:51

Bitcoin Shifts Towards Consolidation, Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Significantly Eases

marsbit07/17 01:51

Bitcoin rallies to $65K, but long-term holders send a warning sign

Bitcoin's rally to $65,000, fueled by a softer-than-expected CPI report, faces a critical test of investor conviction. On-chain data reveals a warning sign: long-term holders are realizing losses at a sharp pace, using the relief rally as an exit opportunity rather than accumulating. Simultaneously, short-term holders who bought near recent lows are taking profits at volumes reminiscent of the May peak. This dual selling pressure—from both cycle-top and local-bottom buyers—creates significant resistance. Compounding the issue, Bitcoin spot ETF volume has collapsed 78% from its peak, indicating cooled institutional demand and weaker market liquidity. The growing supply-demand imbalance raises the risk that Bitcoin's current consolidation could become a bull trap, lacking the strong accumulation from long-term holders needed to sustain a true breakout.

ambcrypto07/16 18:03

Bitcoin rallies to $65K, but long-term holders send a warning sign

ambcrypto07/16 18:03

Bitcoin Shifts to Building a Bottom, with Selling Pressure from Long-Term Holders Significantly Easing

Bitcoin is transitioning into a basing phase, with significant selling pressure from long-term holders showing signs of easing. The market is testing overhead resistance, with Bitcoin responding more positively to favorable macro data like soft inflation reports than major equity indices. Its correlation with stocks is weakening while its inverse relationship with the US dollar strengthens, indicating a shift in primary drivers towards liquidity factors rather than risk sentiment. On-chain analysis reveals that long-term holder profit-taking has largely dried up, and the wave of capitulation selling from this cohort has peaked and begun to recede. Buyers successfully absorbed selling pressure at the June lows. Bitcoin currently trades between the network's average realized price (a support floor) and the short-term holder cost basis near $69k, which will be a key resistance level. A breakout above this level is needed to signal a more sustained recovery. In derivatives markets, traders are unwinding bearish bets, with put/call ratios falling and crash protection premiums declining. However, this futures and options positioning adjustment has not been accompanied by significant spot buying. US spot ETF outflows have slowed but not reversed. Volatility has compressed to low levels. In summary, the foundations for a bottom are forming: long-term holder selling is subsiding, demand absorbed the recent low, and the market is reacting to positive catalysts. However, confirmation is still lacking, requiring a spot-driven breakout and hold above the short-term holder cost basis around $69k.

Foresight News07/16 08:32

Bitcoin Shifts to Building a Bottom, with Selling Pressure from Long-Term Holders Significantly Easing

Foresight News07/16 08:32

Want Another Bull Market? Bitcoin Needs Trillions in Fresh Capital Inflow

Title: Want Another Bull Run? Bitcoin Needs Trillions in New Capital Bitcoin has fallen 50% from its October 2025 high of $126k, now trading near $63,000. Recent on-chain reports reveal structural differences in this downturn compared to past cycles, extending beyond simple price charts. A key issue is declining capital efficiency. CryptoQuant analysis shows the capital required for price appreciation has surged dramatically. In 2011, $27 billion in net inflows drove a 55,436% gain. From 2018-2021, $36.5 billion fueled a ~2000% rise. This cycle, $69.7 billion in realized cap growth has yielded only a 689% increase. Today, an estimated $101 billion is needed to double the price, versus just $5 million in 2011. The report concludes that triggering a major bull run now likely requires over $1 trillion in new institutional capital, positioning Bitcoin as a core global asset class rather than relying on retail ETF flows. Meanwhile, supply is tightening. K33 Research notes long-term holder supply has hit a record 79% of circulating coins. Dormant bitcoin moving after 2+ years is at its lowest since 2012. Alphractal data confirms this trend, with ~830k BTC recently moving to long-term storage. This scarcity of tradable supply can amplify price moves from any new buying pressure but doesn't guarantee capital inflow. Profitability metrics signal a potential bottom. CryptoQuant's Net Realized Profit/Loss ratio has dropped to -0.35, a 43-month low matching levels seen during the 2022 FTX crash. Historically, such extremes preceded major bull markets in 2015 and 2019. The current price is only 16% above the network's realized price; historically, this has led to average gains of 41% in six months and 81% in one year. Bitcoin is testing key support near $60,000, with analysts noting a potential W-bottom pattern forming. Macro headwinds persist. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record monthly outflows of over $4.5 billion in June. Uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy under a potential new chair and mixed economic data add pressure. While European institutional infrastructure is slowly developing (e.g., German banks offering BTC services), this is a demand factor, not an immediate liquidity catalyst. In summary, the market shows signs of bottoming: sell-side pressure is largely exhausted, supply is scarce, and metrics are at historical extremes. However, for a significant bull run akin to past cycles, unprecedented institutional capital—likely exceeding $1 trillion—is required to overcome the new reality of drastically lower capital efficiency. The decisive variable of massive new institutional inflows remains absent.

Foresight News07/13 06:06

Want Another Bull Market? Bitcoin Needs Trillions in Fresh Capital Inflow

Foresight News07/13 06:06

Glassnode: Crypto Market Enters Later Stages of Bottoming Phase

Glassnode: Crypto Market Enters Later Stages of Bottom Formation Bitcoin has traded below the true market average and the short-term holder cost basis for five consecutive months, indicating a deep undervaluation. On-chain data reveals a significant shift in selling pressure, with long-term holders now accounting for 43% of all realized losses. Daily realized losses for this group recently peaked at $280 million, the highest level since December 2022. While this large-scale capitulation is a hallmark of bear market bottoms, a sustained decline in this metric is a prerequisite for a sustained recovery. Institutional demand remains weak. US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see monthly net outflows, although the pace has moderated from June's peak. Furthermore, average daily ETF trading volumes have contracted by approximately 80% from their October 2025 peak, reflecting subdued institutional participation. Derivatives markets present a mixed picture. Overall positioning has shifted to cautiously bullish, with the put/call ratio dropping to a yearly low. However, the options volatility skew remains elevated, signaling that traders are still paying a premium for downside protection. The spot price also trades below the gamma "max pain" level. In summary, multiple indicators suggest the market is in the later phases of a bottoming process, characterized by long-term holder capitulation and weak institutional inflows. However, key confirmation signals for a durable trend reversal—a sustained drop in long-term holder selling pressure, stabilization of ETF flows, and a price recovery above key cost bases—are still pending.

Foresight News07/09 02:41

Glassnode: Crypto Market Enters Later Stages of Bottoming Phase

Foresight News07/09 02:41

Bitcoin may not be done capitulating – Why a $50K bottom is still in play

Bitcoin faces potential further downside toward $50,000 despite long-term holder (LTH) resilience. Currently, LTHs control a record 78% of supply and are accumulating rather than selling during the downturn, diverging from historical capitulation patterns seen at market bottoms. However, with BTC posting seven consecutive monthly losses—short of the nine that marked prior cycle bottoms in 2018 and 2022—the capitulation phase may not be over. Shifting macroeconomic expectations, with markets pricing in potential Fed rate hikes instead of cuts, add pressure. If history repeats, LTH capitulation could trigger a final washout, driving Bitcoin toward $50,000 by Q3's end before a durable bottom forms.

ambcrypto07/06 21:02

Bitcoin may not be done capitulating – Why a $50K bottom is still in play

ambcrypto07/06 21:02

How Far Are We from the End of the Crypto Bear Market?

How Much Longer Until the Crypto Bear Market Ends? A persistent negative Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, reaching a record 46 consecutive days of negative values, underscores the ongoing crypto bear market. The downturn accelerated in late May/early June when MicroStrategy (referred to as "Strategy" in the text), a major BTC holder, sold a small amount of Bitcoin (32 BTC), shattering market confidence and triggering sharp declines in BTC, ETH, and SOL. This was compounded by sustained net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. June saw Bitcoin briefly fall below $60,000, its worst weekly performance since 2022, breaking below the critical 200-week moving average—a signal some analysts consider confirmation of a bear market. While some institutional analyses in mid-June suggested the bottom might be near (e.g., around $53,600 based on realized price, or a potential end during the 2026 World Cup summer), further price drops quickly disproved these optimistic forecasts. Key bear market indicators include: the severe de-pegging of MicroStrategy's preferred shares (STRC) from their $100 NAV, which later recovered partly due to company stabilization plans; a record number of BTC (over 10.83 million) and a significant portion of long-term ETH holders now in unrealized loss; and Bitcoin's price trading below its 200-week moving average. Predictions for the bear market's end vary. Some, like investor Yilihua, suggest July-August 2026 could present a final buying opportunity. Others, like miner Jiang Zhu'o'er, predict a bottom between $42,000-$44,000 in October-December 2026, based on the historical lag between MicroStrategy's mNAV ratio bottom and Bitcoin's price bottom. Technical indicators like the BTC 4-year average price index dipped briefly below 1, and the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, suggesting a need for a price rebound to around $77,000 for a return to positive territory. In the absence of major external catalysts, the consensus leans toward the bear market persisting for another 2-3 months, with late September to early October 2026 being a potential turning point window.

Odaily星球日报07/03 10:19

How Far Are We from the End of the Crypto Bear Market?