Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Golem (@web3_golem)
Just after the World Cup ended, Hyperliquid dropped a "nuclear bomb" into the prediction market sector.
On July 20th, Hyperliquid announced that HIP-4 will support permissionless deployment in the future, just like HIP-3. The staking requirement for HIP-4 deployers is also 500,000 HYPE, which will be locked for 6 months. HIP-4 deployers can set a fee share of up to 50% in the markets they deploy. This feature will first be available on the testnet and then launched on the mainnet.
Hyperliquid Announces HIP-4 Open Permissionless Deployment
Although this announcement from Hyperliquid is just a preliminary notice, with the specific opening time for HIP-4 permissionless deployment not yet confirmed, the market has already gotten excited following the news.
Hyperliquid's current status as the world's largest platform for stock tokens and on-chain commodity perpetual contracts, even outpacing traditional financial markets in pricing enterprise IPOs, is largely thanks to its launch of HIP-3 and opening of third-party permissionless creation of perpetual contract markets in October 2025.
Therefore, this time, investors believe Hyperliquid can once again rely on the power of "decentralization" to surpass all the frontrunners in the prediction market sector.
Who Will Be the Next Trade.xyz?
Hyperliquid launched the HIP-4 market on May 2nd, 2026, marking its official entry into the prediction market sector. Before the HIP-4 market went live, the market was generally optimistic that it would become Hyperliquid's next core narrative. However, nearly three months after its launch, its performance can be described as poor.
According to official Hyperliquid data, the cumulative trading volume of the HIP-4 market over the past 3 months is only $216 million, with a daily average trading volume of just $10 million. The peak daily active users reached only 7,000, and the total fee revenue is a mere $442.38. In contrast, DeFiLlama data shows Polymarket's trading volume over the past month reached $4.587 billion, with fees amounting to $50 million.
HIP-4 Daily Average Trading Volume and Total Trading Volume
Not only are there few users and low trading volume, but the number of events with resolvable outcomes on HIP-4 is also very limited. Currently, the entire HIP-4 market has only 6 predictive markets, which is a drop in the bucket compared to Polymarket in terms of both quantity and variety.
Currently Tradable Events on HIP-4
Given such a vast disparity in scale, Hyperliquid chose to follow the path of dependency, adhering to the successful experience of HIP-3. Since they couldn't build it up themselves, they would give the stage to the community, aiming to create another Trade.xyz within HIP-4.
Hyperliquid opening permissionless deployment for the HIP-4 market is equivalent to Polymarket allowing users to autonomously create predictive market events. Hyperliquid founder Jeff also stated that permissionless deployment is particularly important for the growth of outcome markets (HIP-4) because the scope of outcomes that can be traded is extremely vast. The number of independent events suitable for outcome trading far exceeds the number of underlying assets used for derivatives and real-world asset tokenization.
Moreover, having the community or third parties deploy predictive market events offers greater flexibility. Currently, the creation of predictive market contracts is mainly initiated by the team or reviewed after community proposals. This process is not decentralized enough, and team members cannot possibly pay attention to every niche across all fields. Especially for trending real-world events, this model slows down the time from market reaction to final execution and launch.
On the HIP-4 market, as long as a third party stakes enough HYPE tokens, they can list predictive market events according to their own standards without Hyperliquid team review. Hyperliquid also stipulates that it will not restrict multiple deployers from simultaneously deploying identical events. This will also incentivize healthy competition within the HIP-4 market, as only those who provide users with a wider range of events and deeper liquidity will prevail in the competition.
Hyperliquid's product philosophy has always adhered to a win-win strategy. The HIP-3 market has already nurtured the giant Trade.xyz, which holds over 90% of the HIP-3 market share. The first 10 perpetual contract listings it launched each exceeded $10 billion in trading volume.
Perhaps many teams are already gearing up. On the day Hyperliquid's mainnet opens HIP-4 for permissionless deployment, we will witness a lively "War of the Gods."
Can Hyperliquid Disrupt the Prediction Market Landscape?
But can Hyperliquid really "use one trick to conquer all"?
Firstly, Hyperliquid is no longer what it used to be. The HYPE price remains stable above $60. The requirement for HIP-4 market deployers to stake 500,000 HYPE (approximately $30 million) actually bars small startup teams from entering. Nowadays, a single funding round for a crypto project might not even reach $30 million. And prediction market projects capable of raising $30 million might prefer to develop their own prediction market platforms.
Therefore, the excessively high staking threshold for HIP-4 deployers might drastically reduce the number of third-party competitors. In the end, only "well-funded" prediction market projects would come to attract traffic. The number of tradable independent events would also be limited, severely hampering the innovation momentum of the entire HIP-4 market.
Secondly, Hyperliquid's timing for launching HIP-4 permissionless deployment missed even the last bus. One main reason why 2026 became a year of opportunity for the prediction market sector's development is the recent concentration of major sporting events, especially coinciding with the once-every-four-years World Cup. Various prediction markets were focusing their efforts around World Cup matches. For example, on Polymarket, the total trading volume for the Argentina vs. Spain match event on July 20th alone reached $83.75 million.
But Hyperliquid completely missed this crucial World Cup time window, which is undoubtedly a huge strategic oversight. Even the success of the HIP-3 market was a combination of favorable timing, location, and people. The US-Iran conflict in February this year, which caused fluctuations in international crude oil prices, became a significant catalyst for the HIP-3 market's development. The first day of the war fell on a weekend. With traditional markets closed, traders urgently needing to adjust positions and hedge had to find new tradable markets, and Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market became the first choice.
When Hyperliquid launched HIP-3, it did not emphasize that it was built for stock tokens and commodity tokenization. Yet, it ultimately gave rise to Trade.xyz and Hyperliquid's current leading position in the tokenized trading market. If Hyperliquid had not seized the opportunity presented by the US-Iran conflict, perhaps Hyperliquid would have no place in today's tokenized trading market.
Similarly, having missed the World Cup opportunity, how much confidence can we have that Hyperliquid can now disrupt the prediction market giants?
