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Bitcoin Faces Resistance Wall at $68,000 but Hovers Above 200-Week Moving Average
The crypto market continues its rebound, with Bitcoin price stabilizing around $66,000, having briefly surpassed $66,900 during the session, marking a rebound of over 15% from the July low. CoinDesk points out that Bitcoin currently appears to be following chip stocks and broader macro risk appetite rather than trading solely on the "digital gold" narrative.
Current overhead resistance for Bitcoin is concentrated around $67,000, $67,300, $67,900, and $68,000. Bitfinex analysts believe that the $68,000 area is not only close to the average cost basis for investors over the past five months but also corresponds to the failure point of the mid-June rebound. A large amount of trapped capital may sell upon breakeven, so the initial test could trigger significant volatility.
Technically, traders are watching the BTC 200-week MA around $63,333 and the 200-week EMA around $68,328. Daan Crypto Trades notes that Bitcoin is currently sandwiched between the 200-week MA, the 200-week EMA, and the bull market support band. The price is in the middle of these key moving averages; a weekly close below $55,000 or above $70,000 is needed to confirm a major directional breakout. A break above $68,000 could open up further upside for Bitcoin; failure could lead to a retest of support near $63,000.
However, the market remains in a cautious recovery phase. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, notes that CME Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, and spot trading volume remains notably weak. The current price action resembles a "summer low-liquidity rebound" rather than the start of a full-fledged bull market.
Key Points for Today:
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MBG will unlock approximately 27.15 million tokens worth about $3.3 million on July 22.
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SOON (SOON) will unlock approximately 20.24 million tokens worth about $3.3 million on July 23.
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Token Unlock · 08:00
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aPriori (APR) will unlock approximately 31.88 million tokens worth about $6.8 million on July 23.
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Upbit 24-Hour Trading Volume Ranking: BTC, XRP, ETH, ERA, ONDO
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Bitcoin Spot ETF: +$203 million, marking 6 consecutive days of net inflows.
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Ethereum Spot ETF: +$37.471 million, marking 3 consecutive days of net inflows.
Top Gainers Among Top 100 Coins by Market Cap Today: NIGHT up 16%, BEAT up 14.4%, HASH up 12.1%, RAIN up 6.3%, GRAM up 4.3%.
U.S. Stock Index Futures Fall; Stocks That Surged Last Night Decline in Evening Trading
U.S. stock index futures are down across the board, with Nasdaq 100 futures falling 0.79%, Dow futures falling 0.29%, and S&P 500 futures falling 0.33%.
BIT evening trading data shows that in the U.S. night session, the semiconductor and storage sectors that surged last night began to decline. The Semiconductor ETF fell 2.22%, the 3x Long Semiconductor ETF fell 6.28%, and Intel fell 2.7%. Memory stocks that surged over 10% last night, Micron fell 2.29%, SanDisk fell 1.92%, SK Hynix fell 4.95%, and the DRAM Storage ETF fell 3.18%.
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The standout in Tuesday's after-hours and evening U.S. trading was Super Micro Computer (SMCI), up over 20% after-hours and up 15.8% in evening trading. The company expects Q4 revenue near the low end of its $11.0-$12.5 billion guidance range but significantly raised its gross margin outlook to 15%-17%, well above the prior 8.2%-8.4% expectation. More crucially, the company said quarterly new orders exceeded $60 billion, with backlog hitting a record high, directly reinforcing the view that AI server demand remains strong.
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Rocket Lab rose over 7% after-hours and is up 4% in evening trading, after securing a $266 million U.S. Air Force contract for suborbital rocket launch missions.
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Oklo rose over 6.6% after-hours, X-Energy rose over 8.6% after-hours, and both are up over 3% in evening trading. Both companies formally joined the new nuclear reactor construction plan pushed by the Trump administration, as the market continues to trade "power after AI computing power" as the next layer of infrastructure.
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SpaceX ended a 7-day losing streak, rising 3.08% last night and continuing to gain 0.23% in evening trading. The market awaits its first post-IPO earnings report on August 4th; simultaneously, ahead of a large unlock on August 6th, the battle between shorts and longs is intensifying. S3 Partners estimates that about 206 million SpaceX shares are currently shorted, representing roughly 32% of the float, with a nominal short position of about $25 billion.
U.S. Stocks Rallied Strongly Last Night, but Oil and Treasuries are Throwing Cold Water
U.S. stock indices collectively closed higher on Tuesday, ending a three-day losing streak. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.21%, its best single-day performance in six weeks. The memory sector skyrocketed: Micron up 12.17%, SanDisk up 14.27%, Western Digital up 12.51%, Seagate up 11.14%, SK Hynix's U.S.-listed shares up 13.75%. The market regained belief that the proliferation of AI models will drive more demand for memory, computing power, and servers.
Bank of America believes that open-source models like Kimi K3 will not weaken hardware demand; instead, local deployment and private training will increase demand for HBM, DRAM, and NAND. UBS also noted that tech giants see AI as a "winner-takes-all" competition and will continue buying hardware even if short-term returns are low.
Nvidia rose 1.97% as the company disclosed its Vera Rubin platform entering volume production ramp-up, with Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud, and CoreWeave beginning deployment. AMD rose 8.11% on pre-event positioning ahead of its AI event. Intel rose 8.64%, buoyed by the semiconductor sector rebound and its foundry business securing a Fortinet order.
Jun, a guest analyst for BIT U.S. Stocks business, previously pointed out that the near-term key for U.S. stocks lies in two lines: first, whether earnings reports validate profits, and second, whether positioning in AI infrastructure and semiconductors stabilizes. AI infrastructure stocks had previously been pressured by factors like Meta's compute leasing plans and SK Hynix's sharp decline, but this rebound suggests the market is reassessing AI hardware demand.
However, U.S. stocks are not without headwinds. Brent crude oil rose above $91, as U.S.-Iran conflict escalates continuously, with the U.S. conducting strikes on Iranian targets for the 11th consecutive night. Red Sea shipping is also threatened by Houthi attacks. Rising oil prices are reviving inflation concerns.
Treasuries are also throwing cold water on stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.64%, breaking above the key 4.60% level; the 30-year TIPS yield rose to 2.95%, the highest since 2008. RBC rates strategist Izaac Brook stated that rising energy prices are the main driver for higher rates. Natixis chief U.S. economist Christopher Hodge believes the Fed should pay more attention to the energy price shock that has already occurred.
According to BIT U.S. Stocks data, crypto-related stocks performed strongly: Coinbase up ~9.6%, Robinhood up 7.11%, Strategy up 4.22%. The primary reason is progress on the U.S. "CLARITY Act," leading the market to believe crypto regulation is becoming clearer. Circle will report earnings on August 5th; the market will focus on USDC scale and reserve income. Miners also strengthened: American Bitcoin up 12.13%, Cipher Digital up 11.44%, Hut 8 up 7.98%, Bitdeer up 9.76%, driven by both the Bitcoin rebound and the AI compute transition narrative.
South Korean Semiconductors Recover, Japanese Yen Risk Heats Up
Asian markets generally followed the U.S. tech stock recovery but with unstable momentum. The AI hardware rebound boosted South Korean and Japanese tech supply chains, but the yen falling past 163, rising oil prices, and higher Treasury yields kept markets alert.
South Korea's KOSPI index initially rose over 6% in early trading but closed up 0.74%. The rise was mainly due to nearing completion of earlier leveraged ETF liquidations, with the market shifting from panic selling to recovery. JPMorgan strategist Mixo Das stated that South Korean leveraged ETF deleveraging may be about 75% complete.
South Korean semiconductor stocks gave up early gains. SK Hynix initially rose over 9% but closed down 0.32%; Samsung Electronics rose 0.57%. SK Hynix was rumored to be in talks to acquire Intel's Ohio campus for U.S. memory chip production, but subsequent unclear news caused stock volatility. The South Korean government also discussed exchange rate stability with major exporters like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, and Kia, expecting improved semiconductor exports in H2 to support foreign exchange supply and demand.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.18%. Japan's June exports grew 19.3% year-over-year, imports grew 25.4%, resulting in a trade deficit of ¥406.9 billion. Yen depreciation benefits export companies' income conversion but also raises energy and import costs.
The biggest risk remains the exchange rate. The yen hit a new low since 1986. Former Bank of Japan policy board member Sayuri Shirai warned that if the Fed continues raising rates, USD/JPY could head toward 165. The market is beginning to worry about potential Japanese government intervention in the forex market. Any intervention could trigger global carry trade unwinding, impacting tech stocks and risk assets.
What to Watch Next:
July 22 (Wednesday) (Tech Super Day)
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21:00 Samsung Galaxy Global Unpacked Event: Market will watch for more on-device AI features in new devices.
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July 22-23 AMD AI Event: Market looks to see if AMD can provide a clearer AI server roadmap and customer orders, determining if the AI hardware rebound can spread.
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Google, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, and ServiceNow report earnings after the close: Alphabet's earnings focus on Google Cloud, advertising, and AI capital expenditure. Strong cloud growth supports the AI hardware chain; high investment with weak returns could pressure tech stocks. Tesla's earnings focus on auto gross margin, energy storage, FSD, and Robotaxi.
July 23 (Thursday)
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20:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision and Lagarde Press Conference: Market expects no change, but comments on inflation and liquidity withdrawal will trigger euro and global bond market volatility.
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20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: Market expects ~214,000. Claims significantly below expectations suggest a tight labor market, making Fed easing harder; rising claims would strengthen the growth slowdown trade, benefiting Treasuries and pressuring banks and cyclical stocks.
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Intel reports earnings after the close, the most critical transformation test post-semiconductor bear market. Same-day earnings: Nokia, Lockheed Martin, RTX, Blackstone, American Airlines, Newmont, Honeywell, SAP, Digital Realty, T-Mobile, among others.
