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Bitcoin at 59,000 Is Not the Bottom, One Last Drop Needed! Chain Data and Liquidity Analysis: Where is BTC's True Bottom?

Based on analysis by trader Mr. Beggar, Bitcoin's (BTC) recent low of $59k is likely not the final cycle bottom. He argues that while a bottom is near, a final downward movement is still probable to target liquidity below that level, making a deeper low healthier for a sustainable reversal. Mr. Beggar's framework combines on-chain data for long-term cycles and liquidity-based technical analysis for shorter-term trades. His "four deep bear buying models" include Cointime Price (market cost weighted by coin holding time) and AVIV (an enhanced MVRV indicator), which currently suggest prices are nearing cyclical bottom zones. While a PSIP (Percent Supply in Profit) signal has flashed below 50%, it alone is not considered definitive; typically, the first signal is not the final bottom. He presents three potential scenarios for the current market: 1) a direct drop from here, 2) an upward liquidity sweep (stop hunt) of the recent high near $67.3k before declining, and 3) a direct reversal without new lows. He heavily discounts the third scenario due to significant un-swept liquidity in the $59k-$62.3k range, suggesting the market must revisit these levels. Mr. Beggar shares that he used on-chain signals to identify potential cycle tops in late 2024/early 2025 and later established low-leverage BTC-denominated short positions. He emphasizes the importance of risk management and staying within one's expertise ("strike zone"), warning against investing in assets like AI/semiconductor stocks simply because they are rising.

marsbit06/26 02:01

Bitcoin at 59,000 Is Not the Bottom, One Last Drop Needed! Chain Data and Liquidity Analysis: Where is BTC's True Bottom?

marsbit06/26 02:01

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