# Smart Money的所有文章

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World Cup Upsets Keep Coming, the 'Dumb Money' in Prediction Markets Got Me Laughing

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has been marked by frequent upsets, turning prediction markets into a high-stakes game of chance. Odaily Planet Daily examines several high-profile cases where "smart money" bets went disastrously wrong, questioning if these losses offer any contrarian insights. A major upset occurred when underdog Cape Verde held football powerhouse Spain to a 0-0 draw. A trader, betting $1 million on a Spanish victory at 0.92 odds to earn $85,000, instead lost their entire principal. This match set a precedent for underdogs stifling favorites. Similarly, Portugal, despite featuring star Cristiano Ronaldo, was held to a 1-1 draw by debutants DR Congo. A trader with a 49% win rate lost over $243,000 predicting a Portuguese win. The article highlights the case of a notorious "anti-indicator" address, @Zzzz87. After initially losing over $620,000 (with a sub-40% win rate) by betting on underdog upsets, the address switched strategy. It began backing favorites in the knockout stages, reportedly turning a $269,000 profit in a week, despite being down $255,000 over the past month. This exemplifies the market's volatility and the difficulty of establishing a consistent strategy. The core conclusion is that football's inherent unpredictability defies simple logic based on player valuations or national rankings. Whether following "smart money" or betting against "dumb money," the only certainty is uncertainty. The article advises enthusiasts to enjoy the games while remaining adaptable in their approach to the prediction markets.

Odaily星球日报07/02 09:41

World Cup Upsets Keep Coming, the 'Dumb Money' in Prediction Markets Got Me Laughing

Odaily星球日报07/02 09:41

Interview with PPP: How the World Cup Ignited the Prediction Market, and How to Find "Replicable Smart Money"?

Interview with PPP: World Cup Ignites Prediction Markets, How to Find “Replicable Smart Money”? With the World Cup underway, prediction markets are experiencing a historic surge in data and activity. However, most ordinary users struggle to achieve consistent profits amidst the volatility. Simply chasing "smart money" signals on social media is often ineffective due to slow manual execution. Even dedicated copy-trading tools can be misleading, as high total profits don't guarantee a strategy is suitable or sustainable for others to follow. Prediction market strategy platform PPP (Prediction Position Platform) argues that not all profitable addresses are fit for copying. Truly replicable "smart money" must demonstrate stable, long-term profitability across key metrics like win rate, max drawdown, and strategy consistency. PPP aims to solve this by building a system that structures complex on-chain data into actionable strategies for users. It employs a dual AI-modeling and manual-review process to analyze addresses based on performance, risk, capital allocation, and more, filtering out偶然性盈利 to identify statistically reliable strategies. The platform categorizes these strategies into two main products: a "Strategy Square" featuring long-term, vetted strategies with strict criteria like a six-month minimum track record, and a "Trading Leaderboard" highlighting shorter-term, high-performing opportunities from the past 30 days. Both are presented with clear style descriptions (e.g., "high implied win rate, high volatility"). Currently accessible via a Telegram Bot, PPP offers features like one-click trading, address copying, and an AI address analysis tool. It uses a subscription model and a non-custodial wallet. A trial run by the author yielded significant short-term gains, though subsequent drawdowns highlighted the importance of risk management and adjusting copy parameters per strategy. PPP’s core value lies not just in copy-trading, but in compiling and structuring混沌的交易信号 into replicable strategies, reducing information asymmetry in prediction markets. While it can’t guarantee future profits, it provides a more systematic, higher-probability entry point for users navigating the uncertain but opportunity-rich landscape, especially during events like the World Cup.

Odaily星球日报06/26 02:30

Interview with PPP: How the World Cup Ignited the Prediction Market, and How to Find "Replicable Smart Money"?

Odaily星球日报06/26 02:30

Unveiling the Whales of the World Cup Prediction Market: Smart Money Stumbles on the Pitch, 'Buy No' Outperforms 'Buy Yes'

**Title: Unveiling the Whales of the World Cup Prediction Market: "Smart Money" Stumbles on the Pitch as "Buying No" Outperforms "Buying Yes"** An analysis of pre-match trades over $5,000 on Polymarket for 20 completed group stage matches reveals a counterintuitive finding: large "smart money" bets were not consistently accurate. Aggregated pre-match buying volume was $89.55 million, with a weighted hit rate of only 48.5%. Holding these positions would have resulted in an estimated net loss of about $1.76 million (ROI -2.0%), challenging the notion that big money reliably predicts outcomes. The data highlights several key dynamics. Draws proved to be a major risk, significantly impacting bets on favored teams, as seen in Belgium-Egypt and Spain-Cape Verde. Markets were more efficient for clear mismatches (e.g., Germany's big win) but became prone to bias when favorites were overvalued. Notably, buying "No" shares (betting against a specific outcome) significantly outperformed buying "Yes," with hit rates of 62.4% vs. 37.5%. This suggests the market often overprices popular narratives, creating value in contrarian positions. Individual trades showed extreme volatility. One wallet (mintblade) earned an estimated $6.77 million by betting against Iran, while another (LEEEROYJENKINS) lost roughly $8.39 million on a Belgium win. The market favors high-risk, high-reward information trading rather than steady arbitrage. For sustained insight, wallets with consistent performance across multiple matches (e.g., swisstony) are more telling than one-off big bets. Ultimately, the Polymarket acts less as a crystal ball and more as a mirror, reflecting crowd bias and the inherent unpredictability of football. True "smart money" may lie not in predicting the future, but in identifying and exploiting market mispricings while respecting risk.

marsbit06/17 10:34

Unveiling the Whales of the World Cup Prediction Market: Smart Money Stumbles on the Pitch, 'Buy No' Outperforms 'Buy Yes'

marsbit06/17 10:34

Guardis Launches AI-Powered On-Chain Trading and Security Platform

Guardis has launched a non-custodial, AI-powered on-chain trading and security platform initially on Solana. The platform integrates wallet intelligence, automated fraud detection, and low-latency trading tools into a single interface to help users make informed decisions and avoid scams. It addresses the rise of frauds and rug pulls in memecoins and speculative tokens by providing deeper insights into token activity and security threats before trading. Key features include Token Stream for real-time tracking of new Solana token launches; Smart Signals, which uses on-chain analysis to identify early momentum and trading opportunities; and Smart Screener, a proprietary intelligence layer that finds high-performing traders. The platform's Warden security system proactively detects risks, assigning safety scores to tokens and alerting users to major threats. Guardis emphasizes speed, claiming to deliver market data up to 10 seconds faster than major monitors. It includes a Telegram integration for trading and alerts, charges a 1% trading fee with cashback for users, and offers a referral program. The company plans to expand to other blockchains with more advanced analytics and security tools.

TheNewsCrypto06/02 14:04

Guardis Launches AI-Powered On-Chain Trading and Security Platform

TheNewsCrypto06/02 14:04

Polymarket Smart Money Panorama: 26 Long-Term Trackable Addresses (Categorized by Sector)

This article profiles 26 high-performing "smart money" addresses on Polymarket, categorized by their expertise in five distinct prediction market sectors. The selection criteria focused on proven Profit and Loss (PNL), a diversified winning structure (not reliant on a single bet), and high transaction volume to distinguish informed speculation from arbitrage. The addresses are broken down as follows: * **Politics & Geopolitics (5 addresses):** Experts in long-cycle macro events like Fed rates, US elections, and Middle Eastern geopolitics. They often bet against consensus (NO) in low-probability markets, achieving high ROI. * **Weather (6 addresses):** Specialists in temperature prediction markets for specific cities. Strategies range from high-frequency, small bets across thousands of markets to focused, high-conviction wagers. * **Tech (5 addresses):** Focused on Big Tech and AI product timelines (e.g., Google, OpenAI). They typically target high-probability outcomes or use a high-volume, low-cost approach on undervalued options. * **Culture (5 addresses):** Experts in movie box office results and Twitter-related markets. Strategies include betting on high-probability outcomes or taking contrarian, high-odds positions in low-probability markets. * **Sports (5 addresses):** Specialists in specific leagues like UFC, Soccer, and Tennis. They excel at identifying mispriced odds, often in medium-probability markets, and hold positions until settlement. A key warning is emphasized: a trader's success is often not transferable across sectors. An expert in sports may perform poorly in politics. The article advises followers to only mirror trades within a trader's proven area of expertise to avoid losses from their cross-sector ventures. All addresses are for reference only and not financial advice, as prediction markets carry significant risk of capital loss.

marsbit03/31 10:50

Polymarket Smart Money Panorama: 26 Long-Term Trackable Addresses (Categorized by Sector)

marsbit03/31 10:50

Crypto market adds $210B amid war fears: Is smart money positioning early?

Amidst war-induced fear that rattled traditional markets, the crypto market added $210 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading the charge. Bitcoin surged 11% to $73,000, gaining 16% since the conflict began, while Ethereum broke a seven-week losing streak with a 13% rise to nearly $2,300. The total crypto market cap reclaimed $2.51 trillion, signaling strong capital inflow despite broader market panic. Whale accumulation and growing stablecoin market cap indicated deep institutional support, suggesting this rally may be more than a short-term bounce. Crypto’s to be emerging as a preferred asset class during uncertainty, with smart money positioning early.

ambcrypto03/16 16:36

Crypto market adds $210B amid war fears: Is smart money positioning early?

ambcrypto03/16 16:36

Racing 22 Agents on Hyperliquid: What Did I Discover? (Full Strategy Code Included)

Summary: We deployed 22 autonomous AI trading agents on Hyperliquid, each with $1000, executing over 5000 trades. Key findings: 1) Less trading with higher conviction yields better results—agents with under 120 trades were profitable, while those with over 400 lost significantly. 2) Profits follow a power law: 3-5 trades generated nearly all gains, with small losses quickly stopped out. 3) Real-time "Hyperfeed" data (tracking where smart money is profiting) outperformed pure technical analysis. 4) Mean-reversion strategies failed in perpetual markets; trend-following was more effective. 5) Agents self-adjusted poorly when losing, often accelerating losses by increasing leverage or removing safeguards. Future steps include hardening risk controls in code and testing new strategies. All code is open-sourced, and experiments continue live.

Odaily星球日报03/16 03:40

Racing 22 Agents on Hyperliquid: What Did I Discover? (Full Strategy Code Included)

Odaily星球日报03/16 03:40

Smart Money Still Selling Ethereum? Futures CVD Shows $5.7B Bearish Pressure

Ethereum is testing key resistance levels as the broader crypto market shows signs of stabilization. Despite a slight daily advantage for buyers in futures, with a positive Taker Delta of $7.15 million, the broader 90-day Smart Money CVD remains deeply negative at -$5.71 billion. This indicates sustained aggressive selling pressure has dominated over the past three months. However, analysts note that large buyers may be absorbing this selling through limit orders, potentially setting the stage for a future momentum shift if the pressure subsides.

bitcoinist03/14 07:02

Smart Money Still Selling Ethereum? Futures CVD Shows $5.7B Bearish Pressure

bitcoinist03/14 07:02

Bitcoin absorbs U.S. government transfer and Middle East FUD – Details

Despite market volatility and FUD driven by the Middle East conflict and a U.S. government transfer of a small amount of Bitcoin, BTC remained resilient, holding around $67k with only a 1% dip over 48 hours. Nearly 50% of Bitcoin supply is underwater, yet strong institutional demand was evident as Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $700 million in inflows during this period. Key figures like Michael Saylor and BlackRock expressed confidence, indicating smart money is treating the dip as a buying opportunity. This suggests underlying bid strength and capital rotation rather than distribution, making the recent FUD a potential bullish signal.

ambcrypto03/04 09:02

Bitcoin absorbs U.S. government transfer and Middle East FUD – Details

ambcrypto03/04 09:02

Retail’s Last Stand: The Crypto -$209B Liquidity Trap That Smart Money Refuses to Touch

The crypto market is experiencing sustained selling pressure, shifting into a defensive phase after the late-2025 rally. Bitcoin has declined significantly from its all-time high, while altcoins show extreme weakness. On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals a five-year extreme in altcoin selling pressure, with a cumulative Buy/Sell Difference of -$209 billion (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) over the past 13 months. This indicates persistent net selling rather than short-term volatility, suggesting a market struggling to absorb excess supply. Retail activity has faded, and "smart money" has rotated away from altcoins, with little institutional accumulation. Recovery is unlikely until new buyers return decisively, leaving altcoins at risk of further downside or prolonged consolidation.

bitcoinist02/19 08:01

Retail’s Last Stand: The Crypto -$209B Liquidity Trap That Smart Money Refuses to Touch