# Powell的所有文章

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The Fed Faces Its Biggest Internal Divergence in Recent Years! Has Powell Stopped Being 'Hawkish' This Time?

The Federal Reserve faces its most significant internal division in recent years as Chair Jerome Powell navigates a deeply split FOMC ahead of a key policy meeting. While a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected, the challenge lies in post-meeting communication. Powell is likely to adopt a "hawkish cut" strategy—lowering rates while avoiding strong signals about future easing, particularly for January. He will emphasize data dependency and may signal that rates are approaching neutral to reassure hawkish members concerned about persistent inflation. The decision is complicated by a government shutdown delaying key economic data and external political pressure. Regardless of the outcome, high uncertainty and market volatility are expected to persist, with future policy moves contingent on labor market conditions and inflation data.

marsbit前天 04:38

The Fed Faces Its Biggest Internal Divergence in Recent Years! Has Powell Stopped Being 'Hawkish' This Time?

marsbit前天 04:38

Former New York Fed Expert: Powell May Announce $45 Billion Bond Purchase Plan

Former New York Fed expert Mark Cabana predicts that, in addition to the widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, Fed Chair Powell will announce a $45 billion per month Treasury bill purchase program at the upcoming December FOMC meeting. This plan, set to begin in January 2026, aims to inject liquidity and prevent a further surge in repo market rates. Cabana warns that markets are underestimating the scale of the Fed's balance sheet actions, as money market rates indicate bank reserves are no longer "abundant." The move is seen as necessary to address liquidity shortages caused by previous quantitative tightening. UBS also forecasts a similar $40 billion monthly purchase program. The policy shift comes amid a critical leadership transition at the Fed, with Powell's term ending and expectations rising for Kevin Hassett to potentially succeed him.

深潮前天 05:01

Former New York Fed Expert: Powell May Announce $45 Billion Bond Purchase Plan

深潮前天 05:01

Macro Outlook This Week: The Decisive Battle Over the Fed's "Hawkish Rate Cut," A Crucial Test for the AI Narrative

This week (Dec 9-15) is dominated by two major themes: the Federal Reserve's final rate decision of the year and key developments in AI. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. The real focus, however, is on whether the move is accompanied by a "hawkish" tone. The central bank may signal a more cautious path for future cuts in 2025 to manage internal dissent and inflation concerns. The market's reaction is uncertain: it could either heed this warning (pressuring tech stocks and crypto) or ignore it, choosing instead to focus on anticipated aggressive easing under the incoming Trump administration—a scenario known as the "Hassett Trade." Concurrently, the AI narrative faces critical tests. Rumors suggest OpenAI may surprise-launch its GPT-5.2 model early, which could significantly boost sentiment across tech and crypto AI tokens. Furthermore, earnings reports from key AI infrastructure firms Broadcom and Oracle will serve as a crucial barometer for the strength of AI-related capital expenditure. Investors are warned of extreme volatility, particularly due to reduced liquidity from early market closures on Wednesday and a full U.S. market holiday on Thursday. The core events are the FOMC decision, updated economic projections (dot plot), and Chair Powell's press conference at 03:00 GMT on Thursday, followed by Broadcom's earnings. The advice is to reduce leverage ahead of this high-stakes volatility.

marsbit前天 06:59

Macro Outlook This Week: The Decisive Battle Over the Fed's "Hawkish Rate Cut," A Crucial Test for the AI Narrative

marsbit前天 06:59

Hassett: Setting a Six-Month Interest Rate Roadmap 'Irresponsible', Praises Powell's Leadership

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett emphasized that pre-setting a six-month interest rate path would be "irresponsible," advocating instead for data-dependent monetary policy. In a CNBC interview, he praised Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s leadership in building consensus within the FOMC ahead of an expected rate cut. Hassett avoided specifying the number of rate cuts needed, underscoring the importance of flexibility over rigid forward guidance. He also expressed optimism about AI-driven positive supply shocks, similar to the 1990s tech boom, which could allow the economy to run hotter without inflation. Hassett noted improved bond market conditions and downward trends in Treasury yields, reflecting uncertainty around the Fed’s upcoming decision. His comments highlight the need for adaptive, data-driven policymaking in a complex economic environment.

marsbit昨天 01:06

Hassett: Setting a Six-Month Interest Rate Roadmap 'Irresponsible', Praises Powell's Leadership

marsbit昨天 01:06

Trump to Conduct 'Final Interview for Fed Chair', Hassett Not Yet a 'Done Deal'

The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is entering its final stage. Although White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is currently the frontrunner, President Trump has initiated a final round of interviews, indicating the outcome is not yet certain. Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are scheduled to interview former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh this week, among other candidates including Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. A key concern among some Wall Street investors is that Hassett, perceived as close to the president, might pursue overly aggressive interest rate cuts, potentially unsettling markets. Hassett has recently emphasized the importance of central bank independence and data-driven decisions. The decision is expected in early January. This process occurs against a backdrop of Trump's longstanding criticism of current Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates more quickly. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this week.

深潮15小时前

Trump to Conduct 'Final Interview for Fed Chair', Hassett Not Yet a 'Done Deal'

深潮15小时前

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