# CXMT的所有文章

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Hyperliquid Traders Drive CXMT Trading Volumes to Peak Levels on IPO Day

On July 27th, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), a major Chinese DRAM manufacturer, made its highly anticipated debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), becoming China's most valuable publicly traded AI-infrastructure company. The IPO coincided with record trading volumes for CXMT on the Hyperliquid blockchain platform (HIP-3), peaking at over $9 million. The stock surged 470-530% at its debut, pushing its market cap over $483 billion, driven by massive demand exceeding the IPO's supply. On Hyperliquid, pre-IPO trading saw prices fluctuate significantly, with the futures market reaching $234 million in early hours. Notably, a former major Bitcoin trader shifted entirely to trading CXMT futures. The event highlights how crypto derivatives platforms are being used for early price discovery and potential hedging against volatility in major traditional market IPOs.

cryptonews.ru3小时前

Hyperliquid Traders Drive CXMT Trading Volumes to Peak Levels on IPO Day

cryptonews.ru3小时前

Cryptocurrency Exchanges Provide Foreign Traders Access to Chinese AI Company Stocks

Cryptocurrency exchanges are providing foreign traders with access to Chinese AI-related stocks via an unorthodox route, circumventing Beijing's capital controls. Instead of buying mainland shares directly, overseas investors are using perpetual futures contracts tied to Chinese semiconductor companies like memory chipmaker CXMT. These crypto-based derivatives allow betting on stock prices without actual ownership, bypassing strict rules like China's QFII system, Hong Kong's Stock Connect program, and the high entry barriers of Shanghai's STAR Market (e.g., a ~$74k minimum asset requirement). Trading in CXMT-linked perpetuals began even before its IPO, with significant volume recorded. The crypto-derived price for CXMT soared far above its official Shanghai IPO valuation, briefly implying a market cap higher than China's largest listed company, ICBC. This mechanism creates a parallel pricing market for assets otherwise restricted to foreign capital. The practice, initially developed for crypto assets like Bitcoin, now extends to pre-IPO shares of companies like SpaceX and OpenAI, highlighting how crypto platforms are creating alternative pathways for global investment into restricted markets.

cryptonews.ru4小时前

Cryptocurrency Exchanges Provide Foreign Traders Access to Chinese AI Company Stocks

cryptonews.ru4小时前

How Did the Target Price of 116 Yuan and a Market Cap of 7.9 Trillion for CXMT Come About?

Nomura's inaugural coverage report on ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) gives a 'Buy' rating with a highly aggressive target price of 116 RMB, implying a 1239.5% upside from the IPO price of 8.66 RMB. The valuation is derived by applying a 20x P/E multiple to projected 2028 EPS of 5.79 RMB. The 20x multiple combines Micron's historical valuation with a premium for Chinese A-shares. The report's financial forecasts are exceptionally bullish. It projects revenue to soar from 62B RMB in 2025 to 773B RMB in 2028, with net profit surging to 393B RMB. A key, and arguably unsustainable, assumption is gross margin expanding to over 90% by 2028, driven almost entirely by price increases with minimal cost growth. This optimism is rooted in a forecast that global DRAM demand will grow over 7x from 2026 to 2030 (CAGR >60%), fueled by agentic AI. Nomura argues that supply growth (30-40% CAGR) will lag far behind demand, creating a persistent shortage. Bottlenecks in cleanroom space, equipment, materials, and skilled engineers will constrain rapid industry expansion. For CXMT, Nomura expects capacity to reach 550k wafers/month by 2028. The company's bit output is forecast to grow 40-45% annually, allowing its global market share to rise from ~10% to ~18%. While CXMT's technology lags leaders by about five years, limiting its wafer ASP, it benefits from supportive domestic procurement policies. Key risks include the cyclicality of memory pricing, with the 90% margin assumption representing a peak-cycle scenario rather than a sustainable norm.

链捕手4小时前

How Did the Target Price of 116 Yuan and a Market Cap of 7.9 Trillion for CXMT Come About?

链捕手4小时前

More Accurate Than Brokerages? TradeXYZ Priced CXMT Ahead of Its IPO

TradeXYZ, a decentralized trading platform, accurately predicted the market debut price of CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) on China's A-share STAR Market. On July 27, CXMT listed with a staggering opening market cap of 3.31 trillion RMB (approx. 3.28 trillion USD at the time). Prior to this, TradeXYZ had launched a pre-IPO perpetual contract for CXMT. During the pre-IPO period, the contract price closely mirrored final market expectations, with an opening price discrepancy of less than $0.20 compared to the A-share listing. This success demonstrated TradeXYZ's growing capability in price discovery for major global IPOs, offering global investors a novel channel to gain exposure to assets like A-shares without traditional market barriers. However, a brief discount emerged post-listing due to a controlled transition in the platform's oracle price feed mechanism. On-chain data revealed significant trading activity, with notable profits for early bulls and losses for a major "whale" short-seller. Regional wallet analysis showed a predominance of long positions from US and Greater China wallets, while Korean-labeled wallets were net short.

Odaily星球日报5小时前

More Accurate Than Brokerages? TradeXYZ Priced CXMT Ahead of Its IPO

Odaily星球日报5小时前

Hyperliquid's "Stock Price" for ChangXin Memory Tech Hits $8.64: How Was This Price Determined Before the IPO?

Title: Hyperliquid's "Stock Price" for CXMT Hits $8.64: How is This Pre-IPO Price Determined? Summary: On Hyperliquid, a derivative contract tracking the pre-IPO value of Chinese chipmaker Changxin Xinqiao (CXMT) has been trading, with its price reaching $8.64. This price is not a real stock price or a direct IPO valuation, but the result of a specific market mechanism. Trade.xyz deployed this "Pre-IPO Perpetual" (IPOP) contract via Hyperliquid's HIP-3 framework. It tracks the expected USD value of one Changxin A-share post-listing. The contract started with an artificial "discretionary reference price" of $5 set by Trade.xyz. Subsequent trading prices are primarily determined by supply and demand on Hyperliquid's on-chain order book. Since there's no tradable现货 before the IPO, the contract price isn't forced to align with the official IPO price of 8.66 RMB (~$1.28). Key mechanics shape the price: 1. **Order Book-Driven**: The actual成交价 comes from limit orders matched on-chain. 2. **Internal Oracle & Smoothing**: An internal oracle, run by Trade.xyz, calculates a smoothed price based on the order book's "impact price" using a 30-minute exponential moving average (EWMA). This oracle price influences funding rates. 3. **Mark Price for Risk**: A separate Mark Price, derived from the median of the internal oracle and other inputs, is used for calculating profit/loss and liquidation. 4. **Discovery Bound (Price护栏)**: A 20% "Discovery Bound" limits how far the price can move from the current reference point. However, if the price hits the bound, the reference price can be re-anchored upward (or downward) up to 7 times. This explains the阶梯状 jumps to $6, $7.2, and $8.64. 5. **Low Funding Rate**: A minimal funding rate (0.005 multiplier) allows positions to be held with low cost before the IPO, but it provides a weak anchor. Post-IPO, the contract is expected to convert to a standard stock perpetual, with its oracle switching to the actual A-share price converted to USD. This transition could cause price jumps and potential liquidations if there's a significant gap between the pre-IPO contract price and the real market price. In essence, the $8.64 price is a composite of: a人为设定的起点 + on-chain order book supply/demand +内部 oracle 平滑 + low funding rate damping + a moving price护栏. It represents a collective bet by specific market participants on the future public market valuation, not the company's current or official IPO price.

marsbit07/17 05:55

Hyperliquid's "Stock Price" for ChangXin Memory Tech Hits $8.64: How Was This Price Determined Before the IPO?

marsbit07/17 05:55

Hyperliquid Pre-IPO Contract Priced at $7.2 for CXMT, Foreign Capital Intervenes in Chinese Storage Narrative via DeFi

On the eve of Changxin Technologies' (CXMT) highly anticipated STAR Market IPO, a novel DeFi platform is enabling a pre-market price discovery. Trade.xyz has deployed a CXMT perpetual contract on the Hyperliquid blockchain, currently trading around $7.2 USDC (implying a market cap of ~$482B). This marks the first time such a "pre-IPO" derivative has targeted a Chinese A-share company. The article highlights several key drivers: overseas investors, restricted by China's 500,000 yuan (~$69,000) STAR Market access threshold, are using this contract as a direct entry point to bet on the "China storage substitution" narrative. Changxin, the world's fourth-largest DRAM supplier, is seen as a major beneficiary of the current AI-driven memory chip shortage. Furthermore, the 24/7, leveraged, and shortable nature of the perpetual contract contrasts with A-shares' T+1 settlement and lack of short-selling mechanisms for such stocks, potentially offering a hedging tool. While the $3.5 trillion implied valuation aligns with optimistic analyst projections, the article notes a critical divergence from similar contracts for U.S. listings like SpaceX: due to capital controls, direct arbitrage between the A-share and the on-chain contract is virtually impossible, meaning a price gap may persist. Nonetheless, the very existence of this parallel market underscores intense global investor interest in China's semiconductor rise, complementing the landmark IPO itself, which aims to raise up to $92 billion.

marsbit07/16 00:22

Hyperliquid Pre-IPO Contract Priced at $7.2 for CXMT, Foreign Capital Intervenes in Chinese Storage Narrative via DeFi

marsbit07/16 00:22

Hyperliquid Pre-IPO Contract Priced CXMT at $7.2, Foreign Capital Engaging with China's Storage Narrative via DeFi

Hyperliquid, a blockchain-based perpetual contracts platform, has launched a pre-IPO contract for Chinese memory chipmaker Changxin Technology (CXMT) ahead of its STAR Market debut. Priced at 7.2 USDC (approx. $7.2) per share, the contract implies a market cap of about $500 billion, exceeding the official IPO valuation of roughly $80 billion and sitting at the upper end of analyst estimates. This marks the first time such a crypto derivative has targeted a STAR Market listing. It provides global investors, particularly those unable to meet China's 500,000 yuan ($69,000) investment threshold for the STAR Market, a direct avenue to gain exposure to the "China storage substitution" narrative. The 24/7 tradable, leveraged contract also fills a gap for those seeking to hedge or speculate around the A-share listing, which operates under T+1 settlement and restricts short-selling. Changxin Technology, the world's fourth-largest DRAM supplier, is raising nearly $8 billion in one of Asia's largest IPOs this year, buoyed by a DRAM super-cycle and strategic shifts by major competitors. While the Hyperliquid contract offers a novel parallel pricing mechanism, the lack of direct arbitrage with the underlying A-shares may lead to persistent price divergence. Nevertheless, its emergence underscores significant international interest in China's key semiconductor players.

marsbit07/15 04:27

Hyperliquid Pre-IPO Contract Priced CXMT at $7.2, Foreign Capital Engaging with China's Storage Narrative via DeFi

marsbit07/15 04:27

Trillion-Won Bet on Semiconductors: Is South Korea Really Panicking This Time?

**Summary:** South Korea, traditionally adept at "counter-cyclical" investments during industry downturns, has launched an unprecedented trillion-dollar (approximately 6.4 trillion RMB) semiconductor investment plan during a current AI-driven boom. This shift signals deep strategic anxiety, driven by the rapid rise of China's memory chip challengers. The article traces this dynamic through the history of East Asian semiconductor competition. In the 1980s, Japan used a "national system + industrial capital" model to surpass the US in DRAM, only to be overtaken in the 1990s by South Korea employing the same aggressive, efficiency-focused tactics—most notably massive, loss-tolerant investments during downturns to crush competitors like Japan's Elpida. Now, China's memory giants, Yangtze Memory (YMTC) and ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), are employing a strikingly similar playbook. Starting from near-zero a decade ago, they've used a combination of government-backed capital, strategic technology acquisition (e.g., CXMT leveraging Qimonda's legacy), and innovative architectural leaps (e.g., YMTC's Xtacking) to achieve rapid technological catch-up. Crucially, during the severe industry downturn of 2023, while Korean and US giants cut production, the Chinese firms expanded capacity and competed on price, rapidly gaining global market share (reaching ~11% in NAND and ~7.67% in DRAM by 2025). South Korea's current massive investment, therefore, is a defensive move born of fear. The historical pattern suggests that once a technological gap closes, scale and integrated supply chain advantages—areas where China holds significant potential—can determine the leader. Having used counter-cyclical strategies to become the incumbent, South Korea now faces the prospect of a formidable challenger using those very same tactics. This investment marks not just a bet on the AI cycle, but the opening chapter in a new battle for dominance in the memory industry.

marsbit07/02 07:26

Trillion-Won Bet on Semiconductors: Is South Korea Really Panicking This Time?