Data from a new analysis by the crypto research firm Messari suggests that investors who bought newly listed tokens on Binance in 2025 would be sitting on steep losses today.
The study simulated a portfolio that allocated $100 to every token listed on Binance’s spot market in 2025, entering positions at the day-one closing price. After excluding stablecoins, the portfolio comprised 92 tokens, totaling $9,200 in capital deployment.
As of March 2026, the portfolio would be worth roughly $2,600, implying a loss of about $6,600, or −71%.
The findings challenge a common perception among retail traders that exchange listings typically lead to sustained price gains.
Simulated listing portfolio reveals sharp losses
According to Messari’s dataset, the simulated portfolio tracked the cumulative value of all tokens listed on Binance throughout 2025.
The analysis shows that while total capital deployed steadily increased as new tokens were added, the portfolio’s value consistently lagged behind. By the end of the period studied, the portfolio’s value had fallen to just 29 cents for every dollar invested.
The chart also shows that the portfolio experienced temporary recoveries during periods of broader market strength in 2025. However, these gains faded as prices declined later in the year, pushing the simulated fund deeper into losses.
The data illustrates how buying tokens immediately after listing can expose investors to significant downside risk.
Listings often act as liquidity events
Exchange listings typically bring new liquidity and trading access to crypto tokens. However, they can also coincide with selling pressure from early investors.
Projects often distribute tokens to venture capital funds, team members, and early supporters well before an exchange listing. Once a token begins trading on major platforms such as Binance, those early holders may gain their first opportunity to realize profits.
As a result, listing events can sometimes mark the beginning of price discovery rather than the start of sustained upward momentum.
Token supply dynamics shaping market returns
The Messari findings also highlight broader structural changes in the crypto market.
Many modern token launches involve low circulating supply at listing and large future unlock schedules, meaning a substantial portion of tokens enters the market over time. As additional supply becomes available, prices can face persistent selling pressure.
At the same time, the growing number of token launches across the industry has increased competition for investor capital, potentially diluting returns across newly listed assets.
A shifting narrative around exchange listings
For years, major exchange listings were widely seen as bullish catalysts that could drive sharp price increases.
While some tokens continue to outperform after listing, Messari’s analysis suggests the average outcome in 2025 was far less favorable.
The results indicate that buying newly listed tokens without considering supply dynamics, unlock schedules, and broader market conditions may carry substantial risks.
Final Summary
- Messari’s simulation shows that buying every Binance spot listing in 2025 at the day-one closing price would have resulted in a roughly 71% loss.
- The data highlights how exchange listings increasingly serve as liquidity events, with token supply dynamics playing an increasingly important role in price performance.
