Bitcoin climbs above crucial $40,000 mark as Fed ponders interest rate hike

Finbold发布于2022-04-12更新于2022-04-12

文章摘要

Despite losing territory for seven of the previous eight days, Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back over $40,000 on Tuesday, April 12, regaining some ground after recently falling below that mark.

Bitcoin climbs above crucial $40,000 mark as Fed ponders interest rate hike

Despite losing territory for seven of the previous eight days, Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back over $40,000 on Tuesday, April 12, regaining some ground after recently falling below that mark.
Due to historically high inflation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin and the larger cryptocurrency market have suffered in recent weeks, as the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in response.
Economists polled ahead of the release of statistics on Tuesday expect that inflation in the United States will have increased to 8.4% in March, the strongest rate since early 1982. 
According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, the Federal Reserve may be forced to hike interest rates “significantly” higher than it currently forecasts in order to calm an unsustainable U.S. economy.
Bitcoin price analysis
Related
Share of ADA supply held by Cardano whales hits 2-year high Number of active addresses on Ethereum decreases by nearly 10% in just a week Crypto industry on ‘unstoppable trajectory’ into global economic mainstream, says commodity expert
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $40,266, down 4.77% on the day and 13.66% in the last week after seeing a steady climb up until the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin 1-day price. Source: CoinMarketCap Interesting, prominent crypto trading analyst Michaël van de Poppe pinpointed the $40,000 mark as an important level for BTC “while equities are also still dropping. Let’s see. I’d like to see a reaction here. Other crucial levels if lost; $38K Sub $33K.”

Bitcoin chart levels. Source: Van de Poppe Equities correlated to yields
Notably Lead Insights Analyst Will Clemente noted the fixed-income market is selling off aggressively, with the 10-year yield breaking out of a multi-decade long downtrend.
“Equities are generally inversely correlated to yields because of DCF models. The higher the 10Y yields, the lower equity valuations go.”

10y yield. Source: Will Clemente
Clemente highlighted this is putting pressure on equities, especially the Nasdaq. Tech stocks as Finbold reported are ‘feeling the heat’ as US 10-year yields rise to the highest level since 2019
According to the analyst: 
“This roll over in tech is effecting BTC as well. Whether I agree or not, the market appears to be viewing BTC as a high beta play on tech, trading at an increasing correlation over the last month.”

Bitcoin vs US Dollar. Source: Will Clemente In his opinion personal view, he sees closing above $47,000 as momentum and still sees the low $30,000 as value.

你可能也喜欢

美债危机和高收益率背景下,黄金作为“金融保险”的配置价值

本文探讨了在美债危机和高收益率背景下,黄金作为“金融保险”的配置价值。文章认为,美国巨额债务、高收益率环境以及地缘政治风险等因素,削弱了投资者对传统纸币和美元资产的信心,从而凸显了黄金作为无对手方风险的价值储存手段的重要性。 核心驱动力包括:1)黄金与实际利率呈反向关系,当前低实际利率环境提供支撑;2)地缘政治紧张与能源通胀推高避险需求;3)全球央行(尤其是中国央行)持续购金,形成结构性需求;4)投资需求(如ETF)创历史新高。文章回顾了金价从2025年初约2,624美元飙升至2026年1月历史高点5,589美元的历程,并指出当前价格在约4,460-4,523美元区间。 对于投资者,获取黄金敞口的主要途径有:实物黄金、黄金ETF(如GLD、IAU)以及黄金矿业ETF(如GDX)。后者具有杠杆效应,但风险也更高。文章同时提示了黄金面临的风险,包括实际利率大幅转正、美元走强、地缘政治缓和及估值过高等。 最后,文章建议将黄金视为投资组合的保险部分,而非增长型资产,多数情况下配置比例在5%-10%为宜。投资者需密切关注美国实际利率、美伊谈判进展、央行购金数据及关键价格位(如4,500美元和5,000美元),以判断未来走势。在当前宏观环境下,持有黄金的逻辑得到了罕见的基本面支撑。

marsbit30分钟前

美债危机和高收益率背景下,黄金作为“金融保险”的配置价值

marsbit30分钟前

MSTR 与 STRC 的「死亡螺旋」风险有多大?

MicroStrategy(MSTR)近期出售32枚比特币引发市场担忧,其股价及旗下永续优先股STRC价格均出现下跌。文章分析了MSTR、比特币(BTC)与STRC深度绑定的结构,并与已崩溃的LUNA-UST算法稳定币系统进行比较。 核心结论是,尽管MSTR-STRC结构与LUNA-UST在表面上有相似之处(如价格锚定、高收益和潜在的螺旋下跌风险),但两者存在根本差异。STRC的价格稳定依赖于股息率调整和公司信用,而非UST那种直接影响LUNA供给的算法机制。STRC持有人在公司破产时对剩余资产拥有优先追索权,这提供了价格下限支撑,与UST可归零不同。此外,MSTR支付股息的能力依赖于其通过增发股票等方式持续融资,而非UST那种依赖外部协议收益的模式。 目前,MicroStrategy的美元储备仅能支撑约6个月的利息和股息支出,未来融资能力高度依赖市场对比特币的信心以及其股价表现。文章指出,只要比特币价格不跌破约2.63万美元,优先股股东本金损失风险较低;且公司净杠杆率仅11%,因债务导致破产的概率很小。 未来六个月被视为关键期。若比特币市场能在此期间触底回暖,MicroStrategy或能通过健康去杠杆重启其资本运作引擎。总体来看,MSTR-STRC发生类似LUNA-UST那种灾难性“死亡螺旋”的概率极低,但其可持续性仍取决于市场信心和未来半年的融资环境。

Foresight News1小时前

MSTR 与 STRC 的「死亡螺旋」风险有多大?

Foresight News1小时前

交易

现货
合约
活动图片