Optical Modules Soar, Why Is NOK the Second Leader After MRVL?
Nokia's stock has surged nearly 170% to around $16.8 since Nvidia's $1 billion investment and AI-RAN partnership in October 2025, reflecting a market re-rating from a cyclical telecom equipment provider to an AI infrastructure player. This rise, adding roughly $60 billion in market cap, is driven by AI capex expansion into telecom edge, RAN, and optical networks.
The company's Q1 2026 results showed strong momentum, with AI & Cloud net sales up 49% and 10 billion euros in new orders, prompting Nokia to raise its AI & Cloud market growth forecast to a 27% CAGR (2025-2028). Optical network growth of 20% further strengthens its position in connecting AI data centers.
Recent tests with operators like T-Mobile and the opening of an AI Networking Innovation Lab demonstrate progress from concept to early commercial deployment. Nokia's strategy integrates Nvidia GPUs into its network hardware, enabling concurrent AI processing and RAN tasks for real-time optimization and new edge services.
However, with a trailing P/E nearing 100x and consensus price targets lagging the current stock price, significant future growth is already priced in. The key constraint now is the pace and scale of large-scale operator deployments. While execution signals remain positive and the company's position in AI edge infrastructure is established, high valuation leaves limited room for error, making tangible commercial contracts the critical factor for further stock performance.
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