# Пов'язані статті щодо Prediction Markets

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Prediction Markets", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

Will the Next Crypto Bull Run Start with On-Chain Trading of SpaceX?

This article presents a scenario-based forecast for the crypto industry from 2026 to 2029, arguing that the next major cycle will be driven not by technological narratives but by legal access to real-world assets. The author predicts that by mid-2026, pre-IPO perpetual contracts for top private companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic on platforms like Hyperliquid will become the primary gateway for accessing quality assets, as most crypto-native tokens fail to capture real value. The much-hyped AI x Crypto intersection largely fails except for prediction markets, which thrive on betting on AI model supremacy. By 2027, public blockchain foundations are forced to choose between catering to retail speculation or building compliant infrastructure for institutions, with many opting for the latter. Growth in stablecoins and tokenized private credit/equity hits a "triple ceiling" due to regulatory and political uncertainty rather than market demand. The pivotal shift is forecast for 2028. A major liquidation event in pre-IPO perpetuals exposes the structural flaw of synthetic markets lacking a real underlying asset anchor. In response, regulatory changes finally allow the public solicitation of private securities resales to verified accredited investors. This creates a legitimate secondary market for real company equity, which then becomes the core asset class of the new bull market, relegating synthetic perps to a niche role. By 2029, the industry becomes "boring" but foundational. Tokens without claims on real cash flows or assets cease trading. Stablecoin growth is steady but politically capped. Crypto infrastructure fades from view as it gets absorbed into traditional finance backends. The article's central thesis is that the key bottleneck for crypto's next phase is legal and regulatory channels for real asset ownership, not technology.

marsbit5 год тому

Will the Next Crypto Bull Run Start with On-Chain Trading of SpaceX?

marsbit5 год тому

Kalshi-CFTC Fight In New Mexico Could Shape Prediction Market Rules

A jurisdictional battle between the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the state of New Mexico over the regulation of prediction markets could set national rules for the industry. At issue is who polices platforms like Kalshi, with the CFTC asserting federal oversight and New Mexico arguing state gaming and consumer protection laws apply, especially for contracts resembling wagers on events like elections or sports. The outcome will determine if prediction markets can scale nationally under a clear federal framework or face a fragmented, state-by-state regulatory landscape. This dispute is significant for the crypto-adjacent trading community, which often engages with these speculative event markets. A clearer rulebook could boost mainstream adoption, liquidity, and integration with crypto infrastructure, while a state-led challenge could stifle growth. The case is particularly sensitive for sports-related contracts, where the line between financial markets and gambling blurs. Ultimately, this legal fight will shape whether prediction markets become a scalable national product or remain constrained by jurisdictional conflicts.

bitcoinist7 год тому

Kalshi-CFTC Fight In New Mexico Could Shape Prediction Market Rules

bitcoinist7 год тому

The First 'Prediction Market' Stock Emerges!

"Prediction market pioneer Kalshi faces a major new challenge from its former key partner, Robinhood. Following a successful collaboration starting in March 2025, where Kalshi provided prediction market infrastructure to Robinhood's user base, Robinhood has now launched its own competing platform, Rothera Exchange. This move, leveraging Robinhood's control over massive retail user distribution, threatens to divert a significant portion of Kalshi's order flow. Rothera strategically launched during the high-traffic 2026 World Cup, quickly processing tens of millions of contracts. Analysts estimate the partnership previously contributed 25%-35% of Kalshi's volume, translating to potential annual revenue diversion worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The shift underscores a broader industry trend: in commoditized markets, control over user access and distribution channels, rather than just the underlying trading platform, may become the ultimate source of power and profit."

Odaily星球日报17 год тому

The First 'Prediction Market' Stock Emerges!

Odaily星球日报17 год тому

The Rise of Prediction Markets: Why Is This Trillion-Dollar Industry Making U.S. Regulators 'Sit on Pins and Needles'?

The article, "The Rise of Prediction Markets: Why Is the Trillion-Dollar Trend Making US Regulators Uneasy?", explores the rapid growth of prediction markets and the regulatory pushback they face. It argues that platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where users trade contracts on real-world outcomes, create highly efficient information aggregates. Their monthly trading volume has surpassed $24 billion, with projections pointing toward a trillion-dollar annual market by 2030. A core example is the 2026 Iran conflict, where prediction market signals accurately foreshadowed the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and an oil price spike hours before official announcements, outperforming traditional analysts. The piece contends US regulators' primary motivation is not public protection but self-preservation and control. It cites a court ruling against the CFTC, which found the agency's concerns over market manipulation "speculative" and lacking concrete evidence. At the state level, the driving force is framed as lost tax revenue from traditional gambling, not documented social harm. Citing economist Friedrich Hayek, the article concludes that prediction markets excel by crowdsourcing decentralized, "local knowledge" into a dynamic, continuous price signal, offering a real-time reality check against official narratives and static forecasts.

marsbit18 год тому

The Rise of Prediction Markets: Why Is This Trillion-Dollar Industry Making U.S. Regulators 'Sit on Pins and Needles'?

marsbit18 год тому

On-Chain Scene on Opening Day: $20 Billion Already Staked, How Do On-Chain Contracts Know Who Wins?

On the opening day of the 2026 World Cup, over $2 billion had already been wagered on just the "tournament winner" contracts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. This article explores how these blockchain-based prediction markets actually function once the games begin. It breaks down the massive volume and explains how single-game and tournament-long contracts are priced, with values moving between 1-99 cents to reflect implied probabilities. A key mechanism highlighted is "elimination zeroing," where a team's "champion yes" contract immediately settles to zero once they are mathematically eliminated. The core technical question answered is: how does a smart contract "know" who won a real-world match? The answer lies in oracles. The article details two primary paradigms: UMA's "optimistic oracle" (used by most of Polymarket), which allows a challenge period after a proposed result, and Chainlink's multi-source data aggregation (used by FIFA partners like ADI Predictstreet), which automates settlement with minimal dispute windows. Finally, the article injects a note of caution, citing research estimating that a significant portion of historical trading volume on these platforms might be "wash trading" to inflate numbers. It concludes by contrasting the legal status of these "event contracts" under CFTC rules in the U.S. versus traditional, state-regulated sports betting. As the tournament progresses, the real-time operation of this multi-billion dollar machine—its settlements, eliminations, and underlying mechanisms—becomes a story as compelling as the football itself.

marsbit06/12 03:50

On-Chain Scene on Opening Day: $20 Billion Already Staked, How Do On-Chain Contracts Know Who Wins?

marsbit06/12 03:50

CFTC Proposes New Rules for Prediction Markets, Redefining Which Events Can Be Listed and Who Can Participate

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed new rules to establish a clearer regulatory framework for prediction markets. The proposal aims to modify how "event contracts" are reviewed, creating a structured process to determine if contracts involving terrorism, assassination, war, or illegal activities violate the public interest. This moves away from a blanket ban toward a case-by-case assessment of whether a contract's subject matter is acceptable for financial trading. A key focus is distinguishing between predicting the impact of risks and predicting the occurrence of harm. The proposal suggests that many sports-based prediction markets—such as those on game outcomes, scores, or season standings—may be permissible as they can provide price discovery and meaningful information. However, markets on easily manipulated events like specific player injuries, referee calls, or outcomes of youth sports would face stricter scrutiny. The rules directly target insider trading and manipulation risks, highlighting cases where individuals with non-public information or the ability to influence an event's outcome could unfairly profit. This underscores a shift toward ensuring market fairness. The proposal does not end the regulatory debate, particularly with state gambling regulators who argue that sports prediction markets are essentially sports betting and should fall under state jurisdiction. Nonetheless, the CFTC's action signals a move toward formalizing prediction markets, pushing the industry from a phase of rapid, often unregulated expansion into a more institutionalized, rule-based environment that more closely resembles traditional financial markets.

marsbit06/11 02:42

CFTC Proposes New Rules for Prediction Markets, Redefining Which Events Can Be Listed and Who Can Participate

marsbit06/11 02:42

Galaxy Deep Dive: How Does Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Upgrade Change the Predictive Markets Landscape?

Galaxy Research Report: How Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Upgrade Changes the Prediction Market Landscape. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 protocol upgrade, activated on May 2, introduces a third model for prediction markets. While incumbents like Polymarket focus on consumer discovery and Kalshi on regulated US access, HIP-4 integrates outcome markets directly into Hyperliquid's "house of all finance." This embeds binary event contracts within HyperCore, its native on-chain order book, sharing a single margin account with perpetual and spot trading. HIP-4 offers distinct advantages: superior infrastructure with sub-second finality, ~200k orders/sec throughput, and unified cross-margin, enabling novel hedges for perpetual traders. It also features a unique validator-curated oracle model for off-chain events (e.g., Fed decisions, CPI, sports) and zero fees on opening positions. Early traction shows HIP-4 capturing ~20% of combined BTC prediction market volume within 25 days. The report highlights a broader industry trend of convergence: all major platforms are moving towards a "trade everything from one account" model. HIP-4's challenge lies in expanding market breadth and consumer discovery, currently lagging behind Polymarket's flexible UMA oracle/Kalshi's sports depth. Key risks include validator centralization, US regulatory exposure (mitigated by potential pathways like the CLARITY Act), and competitive pressure from Kalshi's newly CFTC-approved Bitcoin perpetual contract. Ultimately, HIP-4's strongest case is its technically superior, unified execution stack—a harder advantage for competitors to replicate than building consumer layers atop it. The upgrade positions Hyperliquid to contest the lucrative institutional hedging flow in the evolving prediction market arena.

marsbit06/10 05:12

Galaxy Deep Dive: How Does Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Upgrade Change the Predictive Markets Landscape?

marsbit06/10 05:12

La Liga Team Bets $1 Million Against Themselves Before Match: Does Using Prediction Markets for Insurance Comply with Sports Regulations?

A Spanish La Liga club, reportedly Osasuna, purchased insurance against relegation and was linked to a transaction of over $1 million on the prediction market platform Kalshi, betting against its own victory in a crucial season-ending match. While Osasuna confirmed buying €1.2 million insurance for a potential €6 million payout in case of relegation through broker Howden, it did not confirm involvement with Kalshi. The reported trade involved intermediaries like Game Point Capital and Greenlight Commodities, with quant firm Susquehanna as the counterparty. This incident highlights the blurring line between financial hedging and gambling in prediction markets. Such markets allow trading on future event outcomes, like sports results. In the US, Kalshi operates as a regulated event contract market under the CFTC. However, Spanish authorities recently initiated penalties against Kalshi and Polymarket, considering their activities unlicensed gambling. The case raises core questions about prediction markets: who can trade, how insider information is handled, and whether participants can influence outcomes, especially in sports where results are human-driven. While leagues like La Liga and Serie A have partnered with Polymarket in North America, the regulatory clash and potential for conflicts of interest, as seen in this club's alleged transaction, present significant challenges as prediction markets evolve toward institutional risk management.

Foresight News06/09 10:19

La Liga Team Bets $1 Million Against Themselves Before Match: Does Using Prediction Markets for Insurance Comply with Sports Regulations?

Foresight News06/09 10:19

The Ambitions of Kalshi, MTS, and a16z

"Kalshi, MTS, and a16z's Ambition" explores prediction markets as a focal point for investors in 2025. The article traces their intellectual evolution from Hayek's ideas on distributed knowledge to Robin Hanson's logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR), which incentivizes truth-telling. Venture firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) invested in prediction market platform Kalshi, valuing it at $220 billion. a16z argues these markets offer "presence"—a way for individuals to actively engage with and influence world events through financial bets, countering modern detachment. This transforms participants into "super observers" and grants the platform authority in defining event truth and importance. The piece positions prediction markets as a key component of a16z's envisioned "new media" empire. This strategy involves rapid, high-intensity content across platforms to "take over the timeline." Media company MTS exemplifies this with its constant news livestreams. Ultimately, Kalshi's value lies in its "reality distortion field"—the power to shape perception through the credibility of real-money markets, making it a potent tool within a16z's broader media and influence architecture.

marsbit06/07 06:26

The Ambitions of Kalshi, MTS, and a16z

marsbit06/07 06:26

Kalshi, MTS, and a16z's Ambition

The article "Kalshi, MTS, and a16z's Ambition" explores prediction markets as a focal point of excitement in 2025 for investors, crypto enthusiasts, and media. It traces their intellectual lineage from Friedrich Hayek's ideas on dispersed knowledge and market coordination to Robin Hanson's Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR), which incentivizes truthful information sharing. The piece argues that a16z's significant investment in prediction market platform Kalshi (valued at $220B) transcends mere financial speculation. a16z frames prediction markets as a new form of "media" that provides "presence"—a way for individuals to actively engage with and influence world events through financial stakes, countering postmodern detachment. By wagering on outcomes, users become "super observers," and the market's aggregated probabilities gain authoritative power to define event truth and importance. The article uses media company MTS ("Monitoring The Situation") as a case study of a16z's "new media" strategy: rapidly producing high-intensity, multi-format content to "take over the timeline." However, prediction markets like Kalshi are presented as the ultimate piece in this media empire. Their real-money, crowd-sourced probabilities possess a unique "reality distortion field" and perceived objectivity, potentially swaying public opinion and granting a private company unprecedented interpretive power over reality. Ultimately, Kalshi's immense valuation is attributed not just to its exchange model, but to its role as a foundational component in a16z's envisioned new media landscape, where prediction markets define narrative and truth.

链捕手06/07 06:08

Kalshi, MTS, and a16z's Ambition

链捕手06/07 06:08

活动图片

Market Analysis

Indepth Research