# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Volatility

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Volatility", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Imbalance in Returns Amid High Correlation: Why is Capital Being 'Squeezed Out' of Altcoins?

Over the past year, a stark divergence has emerged between cryptocurrency and U.S. equity markets. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have posted significant gains, altcoins have experienced a severe downturn, indicating a structural shift of capital toward higher-quality assets. Major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose substantially in 2024 and 2025 with relatively low drawdowns. In contrast, the CoinDesk 80 Index, tracking altcoins outside the top 20 cryptocurrencies, plummeted over 46% in Q1 2025 and was down 38% year-to-date by mid-July. A key driver is the "return imbalance under high correlation." Despite a correlation of 0.9 between major cryptocurrencies (CoinDesk 5 Index) and altcoins (CoinDesk 80), their returns diverged drastically. The former gained 12-13%, while the latter fell nearly 40%. The risk-adjusted return gap is even wider. Altcoin indices showed volatility similar to or higher than equities but delivered deeply negative returns and negative Sharpe ratios. Over five years, a small-cap crypto index returned -8%, while a large-cap index surged 380%. Trading data shows capital is not exiting crypto but flowing up the quality curve. Volume is concentrating in the top 10 altcoins and "institutional-grade" assets like Solana and XRP with regulatory clarity. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are attracting sustained institutional inflows. Consequently, diversification into altcoins has lost its appeal. Their high correlation with major cryptos negates diversification benefits while adding risk. The market's logic has shifted: capital is now focused on regulated, liquid assets, squeezing out lower-quality altcoins.

marsbit12/15 09:08

Imbalance in Returns Amid High Correlation: Why is Capital Being 'Squeezed Out' of Altcoins?

marsbit12/15 09:08

Small-Cap Tokens Hit Four-Year Lows: Is the 'Altcoin Season' Completely Lost?

Small-cap cryptocurrency tokens have plummeted to multi-year lows, with indices tracking altcoins outside the top assets by market cap showing severe underperformance in 2024–2025. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 delivered strong double-digit returns with limited drawdowns, the CoinDesk 80 Index (excluding the top 20 cryptocurrencies) fell nearly 40% by mid-2025, and the MarketVector Digital Assets 100 Small-Cap Index hit its lowest level since November 2020. Despite high correlation (0.9) with major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, small-cap tokens offered no diversification benefits and instead came with deeply negative risk-adjusted returns, high volatility, and severe drawdowns—often exceeding 30–46% in a single quarter. Liquidity has increasingly concentrated in high-value, institutionally accepted assets such as BTC, ETH, and a few altcoins like SOL and XRP, reflecting a flight to quality and regulatory clarity. The data suggests that, in the current cycle, broad altcoin exposure has failed to justify its risk, performing worse than both U.S. equities and core crypto assets.

深潮12/15 07:41

Small-Cap Tokens Hit Four-Year Lows: Is the 'Altcoin Season' Completely Lost?

深潮12/15 07:41

Altcoin ETFs Fully Opened: Data Analysis, Opportunities, and Risk Assessment

Altcoin ETFs have entered a period of mass approval in the US, with multiple single-asset ETFs like XRP, SOL, DOGE, LTC, HBAR, and LINK launching in Q4 2025. This follows the successful establishment of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which set a regulatory precedent and accelerated institutional adoption. Key drivers include the SEC's revised listing standards, which shortened approval timelines, and a unique regulatory window during the US government shutdown. Data shows significant capital inflows, with XRP and Solana ETFs leading, attracting hundreds of millions in assets. In contrast, ETFs for LTC and DOGE saw minimal interest. While these ETFs provide a compliant gateway for institutional and retail investors, they face risks including regulatory uncertainty, market volatility, liquidity constraints, and intense product competition. The trend signals a maturation of crypto markets toward diversified, institutional investment, though careful risk management remains essential.

深潮12/15 03:31

Altcoin ETFs Fully Opened: Data Analysis, Opportunities, and Risk Assessment

深潮12/15 03:31

Weekly Outlook: Macro 'Data Deluge' Week: Delayed CPI and the Bank of Japan's 'Rate Hike Pursuit'

This week marks a critical period for global markets as a flood of delayed macroeconomic data and major central bank decisions converge, breaking months of uncertainty. The key events include the US Labor Department's release of two months of non-farm payroll data (October and November) on Tuesday, which is expected to show contradictory signals—a decline in October jobs followed by a rebound in November. This data may reveal structural weaknesses in the labor market, potentially triggering "recession trading" and risk-off sentiment. On Thursday, the delayed US November CPI report will be released. A higher-than-expected reading could signal premature Fed rate cuts and strengthen the US dollar, negatively impacting risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, softer inflation would support the case for further rate cuts. The Bank of Japan's meeting on Friday is another major event, with a 98% market probability priced in for a 25-basis-point rate hike. This divergence from global monetary policy could disrupt yen carry trade, potentially causing leveraged capital to exit crypto markets and testing Bitcoin's support near $88,000. Amid the macro turmoil, crypto institutions are pushing forward strategically. Coinbase plans to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks on Wednesday, aiming to integrate traditional equity liquidity into crypto. Also on Wednesday, HashKey Group is listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, seeking to raise up to HK$1.67 billion and boost confidence in Asian Web3 markets. Additional factors include US regulatory discussions and delays in South Korea’s stablecoin regulations, which may dampen retail investor participation. In summary, macro events will test market stability, while institutional developments could define crypto’s next growth phase. Traders are advised to monitor the DXY and USD/JPY closely and adopt a defensive stance ahead of Friday’s BoJ decision.

marsbit12/15 03:18

Weekly Outlook: Macro 'Data Deluge' Week: Delayed CPI and the Bank of Japan's 'Rate Hike Pursuit'

marsbit12/15 03:18

The Silver Crisis: When the Paper System Begins to Fail

Silver Crisis: When the Paper System Begins to Fail In December, silver became the standout performer in the precious metals market, surging from $40 to over $60 per ounce, hitting a historic high of $64.28 on December 12 before experiencing sharp declines. Year-to-date, silver rose nearly 110%, far outpacing gold’s 60% gain. The rally appears justified by fundamental factors: expectations of Fed rate cuts, strong industrial demand from solar, EV, and AI sectors, and declining global inventories. However, the surge lacks stability. Unlike gold, which is backed by central bank purchases, silver has almost no official reserves, making it an isolated asset with low market depth and high volatility. The real driver behind the price spike is a futures squeeze. The market structure shifted into prolonged futures premium (contango), indicating either extreme bullish sentiment or deliberate market manipulation. Physical delivery demands surged on exchanges like COMEX and LBMA, exposing the fragility of the paper silver system—where paper claims vastly exceed actual physical silver. JPMorgan, a key player historically accused of silver market manipulation, now controls nearly 43% of COMEX silver inventories and acts as the custodian for major silver ETFs. Its influence over physical supply and delivery eligibility adds to market instability. The situation reflects a broader loss of confidence in financialized assets. Investors and central banks are increasingly shifting toward physical holdings, moving away from paper claims. This trend, coupled with declining Western gold and silver inventories and rising Asian demand, signals a structural shift in monetary and commodity markets. In essence, the rules of the game are changing. When the music stops, those holding physical metal will have a chair—everyone else may be left standing.

marsbit12/13 11:24

The Silver Crisis: When the Paper System Begins to Fail

marsbit12/13 11:24

Spot volumes drop 66% in ‘lulls’ that often precede next cycle leg: Bitfinex

Bitfinex reports a 66% decline in crypto spot trading volumes this quarter, dropping from over $500 billion in early November to around $250 billion. The exchange notes this mirrors historical market lulls that often precede the next cycle upswing. Analysts observe Bitcoin's tightening price structure near key levels of $89,000–$92,000, suggesting a breakout toward $100,000 is possible if resistance is broken. Despite a recent Fed rate cut and a large institutional purchase, momentum faded as the move was already priced in, leaving markets subdued amid softer ETF inflows and macroeconomic uncertainty.

cointelegraph12/13 11:09

Spot volumes drop 66% in ‘lulls’ that often precede next cycle leg: Bitfinex

cointelegraph12/13 11:09

Even 0.1 $BTC is Financial Independence for Decades. But That's Not Enough

The article argues that simply holding Bitcoin (BTC) is no longer sufficient for long-term financial gains. While BTC remains a foundational asset, its price volatility and the limitations of its base layer (slow speeds, high fees, lack of programmability) are driving a shift in focus. Capital is now flowing towards infrastructure that enhances Bitcoin's utility, particularly Layer 2 solutions. These projects aim to transform BTC from "digital gold" into a usable asset for daily payments, DeFi, NFTs, and gaming. The piece highlights Bitcoin Hyper as an aggressive example, which uses Solana's Virtual Machine (SVM) to enable fast, low-cost smart contracts on top of Bitcoin. Its modular architecture keeps security on the main chain while moving execution to L2. The project has reportedly attracted significant pre-sale funding, indicating market belief in the need for a Bitcoin execution layer. The core conclusion is that the next wave of ecosystem growth will come from Bitcoin's usefulness, not just its price appreciation.

bitcoinist12/12 17:59

Even 0.1 $BTC is Financial Independence for Decades. But That's Not Enough

bitcoinist12/12 17:59

Glassnode: Bitcoin Weak and Volatile, Big Fluctuations Coming?

Bitcoin remains trapped in a structurally fragile range, pressured by rising unrealized losses, elevated realized losses, and significant profit-taking by long-term holders. Despite persistent selling pressure, patient demand has anchored the price above the Realized Price (~$81.3K), though reclaiming the Short-Term Holder cost basis (~$102.7K) remains a key resistance level. On-chain metrics show increased capitulation from recent buyers and sustained distribution by long-term investors. Off-chain conditions are weak, with negative ETF flows, thin spot liquidity, and muted speculative interest in futures markets. Options traders are pricing in near-term volatility, accumulating downside protection ahead of the FOMC meeting. The market’s direction hinges on whether liquidity improves and selling pressure subsides, or if the current time-driven bearish pressure persists. Post-FOMC, implied volatility is expected to decay into year-end barring a hawkish surprise.

marsbit12/12 09:25

Glassnode: Bitcoin Weak and Volatile, Big Fluctuations Coming?

marsbit12/12 09:25

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction: Hanging by a Thread at $0.13 – The Start of a Deep Decline or the Eve of a Rebound?

Dogecoin (DOGE) is facing a critical moment as its price recently dropped over 5% in 24 hours, falling below the key support level of $0.14. Market sentiment is tense, with high trading volume accounting for over 8% of its circulating supply. The $0.13 level is now a decisive point: a break below could lead to deeper declines, while a successful hold may pave the way for a rebound. The price movement is influenced by broader market conditions, including volatility triggered by the recent Fed FOMC meeting. Technically, $0.13 has acted as strong support in recent weeks, and a break above the dynamic trendline could open a path toward $0.195. The RSI remains near 40, lacking a clear bullish signal. A move above its 14-period moving average would be needed to confirm a trend change.

金色财经12/12 02:43

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction: Hanging by a Thread at $0.13 – The Start of a Deep Decline or the Eve of a Rebound?

金色财经12/12 02:43

Digital Asset Vaults Lose Their Luster: Twenty One's Stock Plunges 20% on First Trading Day

Twenty One Capital, a Bitcoin-focused treasury company backed by Tether and SoftBank, saw its shares plunge approximately 20% on its first day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The sharp decline reflects investor skepticism toward the valuation and business model of Bitcoin treasury companies amid a significant cryptocurrency market downturn. The company, led by 31-year-old CEO Jack Mallers, holds around 43,500 BTC. However, Bitcoin holdings have fallen over 25% since October’s all-time high near $126,000, putting pressure on the "digital asset treasury" (DAT) model. Despite its large Bitcoin reserve and strong backers, investors remain cautious due to unclear revenue paths and heavy reliance on Bitcoin’s volatile price. Twenty One went public via a merger with SPAC Cantor Equity. Unlike traditional companies, its valuation is almost entirely tied to its Bitcoin holdings, using metrics like "Bitcoin per Share" (BPS). Yet, the firm has not detailed how it will generate sustainable profits beyond holding Bitcoin. The sell-off reflects broader pressures on crypto-linked stocks. Other Bitcoin-heavy companies like Metaplanet, Trump Media, and Empery Digital also face millions in unrealized losses and falling share prices as Bitcoin corrects. The debut underscores high volatility and valuation risks in crypto investing. Despite innovation and institutional support, long-term viability requires transparent business models and clear profitability strategies—lessons even high-profile crypto firms must heed.

cointelegraph_中文12/11 23:16

Digital Asset Vaults Lose Their Luster: Twenty One's Stock Plunges 20% on First Trading Day