Bitcoin is About to Choose a Direction, How to Respond Flexibly | Invited Analysis
Odaily featured market analyst Conaldo provides a weekly trading report on Bitcoin (BTC). Last week, the strategy of shorting within the defined resistance zone of $89,500–$91,000 was successfully performed twice, yielding a total return of 3.62%. The core view that the market would experience wide-range volatility was validated, with price action accurately testing the identified support and resistance levels.
From a technical perspective, BTC has been in a confirmed medium-term bearish trend since its historic high on October 6th, with a maximum drawdown of approximately 36% over 82 days. However, multiple technical indicators suggest the market is approaching oversold conditions historically associated with bottoms. Since November 22nd, price has consolidated in a low-range, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces and a buildup of energy for a directional breakout.
A key possibility is presented: if the market is dominated by major players, a strategic move for bears could be to break down below the critical psychological level of $80,000. This would flush out remaining long positions via panic selling, potentially forming a final bottom before a powerful technical rebound.
**This Week's Outlook (Dec 29 - Jan 4):**
The market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with the core area to watch being **$86,000–$86,500**.
* A break below could lead to a test of the **$83,500–$84,500** support zone.
* Holding above could extend the current **$86,500–$91,000** consolidation.
**Trading Strategy:**
* Maintain a **65% core short position**.
* Use **30% of capital** for short-term "spread" opportunities based on support/resistance levels.
* Two contingency plans (A/B) are provided for price action relative to the $86,000–$86,500 zone, involving short entries on bounces or breakdowns, with defined stop-loss and take-profit levels.
**Key Events to Watch:**
* **Fed Meeting Minutes (Wed):** Clarity on internal divisions regarding the timing and pace of rate cuts could impact medium-term liquidity expectations.
* **Initial Jobless Claims (Wed):** A sustained increase could reinforce cooling labor market narratives, supporting looser monetary policy expectations.
* **Manufacturing PMI Final (Fri):** Will help gauge the "soft landing" narrative and overall risk asset sentiment.
*All analysis is based on technical models and is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. DYOR. Market risk exists.*
Odaily星球日报12/29 05:35
