# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Risk Assessment

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Risk Assessment", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

By The Numbers: How Much Bitcoin Supply Is Exposed To Quantum Risk?

Glassnode estimates that 6.04 million BTC, representing over 30% of the circulating supply, is potentially exposed to quantum computing risk. The risk arises when a wallet's public key is visible on the blockchain, which quantum computers could theoretically use to break cryptographic security. This exposed supply is divided into two categories: structurally unsafe coins (1.92 million BTC, 9.6%) due to older wallet designs, and operationally unsafe coins (4.12 million BTC, 20.6%) where practices like address reuse have revealed public keys. While structurally unsafe supply has decreased over time, operationally unsafe supply has grown. The remaining 13.99 million BTC are considered safe. Concurrently, Bitcoin's price is near $77,000, down over 3% weekly.

bitcoinist2 дня назад 14:03

By The Numbers: How Much Bitcoin Supply Is Exposed To Quantum Risk?

bitcoinist2 дня назад 14:03

At What Oil Price Would Systemic Market Risk Be Triggered?

Based on a UBS analysis, the key threshold for systemic risk in global markets is identified as $150 per barrel of oil. The report warns that breaching this level would trigger a dangerous negative feedback loop: soaring oil prices → resurgent inflation → tighter monetary policy → deteriorating financial conditions → collapsing demand → market panic. The impact of an oil shock is not linear but highly dependent on the initial economic vulnerability. In the current environment of high interest rates and weak growth, the damage from rising oil prices is significantly amplified. For instance, with a 40% baseline US recession probability, oil at $150 per barrel could cause an economic downturn nearly five times more severe than under milder conditions. UBS outlines two scenarios: in an ideal steady state, the US economy might withstand oil prices up to $200 per barrel. However, in a realistic risk scenario where financial markets react negatively, the critical threshold drops sharply to $150. At this level, three systemic pressures emerge: macroeconomic stagflation risks as central banks halt or reverse rate cuts; market-wide sell-offs due to compressed valuations and wider credit spreads; and a simultaneous slump in corporate profits and household consumption. The report cautions that markets are currently underestimating this nonlinear, cliff-like risk. While prices between $100-$130 may cause sector-specific stress, $150 represents a breaking point where localized damage transforms into a full-blown systemic crisis, accelerated by vanishing policy flexibility and collapsing market confidence.

marsbit04/03 07:32

At What Oil Price Would Systemic Market Risk Be Triggered?

marsbit04/03 07:32

Is Polymarket's Pricing Wrong? 200 AI Agent Simulation of Crisis Yields Unexpected Answer

An experiment used MiroFish, an open-source multi-agent simulation platform, to model the geopolitical crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and compare the results with Polymarket's prediction market. The system generated 200 AI agents—including government officials, media, energy firms, financial traders, and civilians—and simulated 7 days of social media interaction (Twitter-like environment) based on a 5,800-character background brief. Key findings: - Organic, free-form discussions among agents produced an average probability of 47.9% for the strait reopening by April 2026, significantly higher than Polymarket's market-derived probability of 31%. - When agents were individually questioned in a formal "interview" setting, they converged to overly optimistic responses (60–75% across categories), reflecting a cooperation bias. - The most accurate predictions came from a minority of pessimistic agents (e.g., Iranian officials, financial analysts, academics) who organically expressed probabilities near 22%—aligning closely with market pricing. - The simulation revealed a structural divide: public/official statements tend toward optimism, while genuine risk assessments emerge from unstructured, adversarial discourse. The study suggests that natural interaction among specialized agents can generate valuable signals, but LLM bias and limited context remain constraints. Future work will expand data scope, use stronger models, and increase agent diversity.

marsbit03/18 06:16

Is Polymarket's Pricing Wrong? 200 AI Agent Simulation of Crisis Yields Unexpected Answer

marsbit03/18 06:16

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