# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Politics

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Politics", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

The Art of Speculation: When Coin Launches Become a Mind-Reading Game Centered on Leaders' Social Dynamics

The article "The Art of Reading Between the Lines: When Coin Listings Become a Game of Guessing Leaders' Social Cues" critiques the culture of speculation and sycophancy in the cryptocurrency space, particularly around Binance’s listing process. It draws a parallel to a Shandong dining custom where the fish head is pointed toward the guest of honor as a sign of respect—a tacit social rule that requires intuition rather than explicit instruction. The piece centers on a recent event where He Yi, Binance’s co-founder, posted a cryptic New Year’s tweet saying “我踏马来了” (roughly: “Here the f*ck I come”). Shortly after, a community-created meme token with the same name was listed on Binance Alpha, despite He Yi’s earlier statements against favoritism and “insider coins.” The author argues that this reflects a deeper cultural issue: the shift from merit-based innovation to a system where success depends on interpreting the subtle hints of influential figures. Unlike traditional industries where technical skill or product quality drive progress, the crypto industry often prioritizes access to information, relationships, and the ability to please key decision-makers. The piece suggests that this “Shandong mindset”—where insiders learn to “read the room” rather than challenge or create—undermines transparency and rewards those who excel at flattery rather than genuine contribution. While He Yi may not have directly endorsed the token, the very fact that her social media activity can trigger such market behavior highlights a structural problem: the concentration of influence in the hands of a few, and the culture of speculation that follows. The author concludes that such an environment may signal decline, where those who master the art of揣摩 (speculation/interpretation) thrive, often at the expense of real innovation.

比推01/08 13:53

The Art of Speculation: When Coin Launches Become a Mind-Reading Game Centered on Leaders' Social Dynamics

比推01/08 13:53

Dissecting 290,000 Data Points: We Uncovered 6 Secrets of Polymarket's Liquidity

Based on an analysis of 295,000 markets on Polymarket, this investigation uncovers six key truths about its liquidity. A significant finding is that 67.7% of markets have a lifespan of less than 7 days, with 63.16% of current short-term markets having zero trading volume, resembling the high failure rate of meme coins. These short-term markets, dominated by sports and crypto predictions, suffer from extremely low liquidity, often under $100. In contrast, long-term markets (over 30 days), though fewer in number, attract substantial capital, with an average liquidity of $450,000. U.S. politics is the most capitalized category. The platform exhibits a stark divide: sports markets are either ultra-short-term with high volume or long-term "season bets," with mid-term interest lacking. New, complex markets like U.S. real estate face a "cold start" problem due to high expertise requirements and low volatility, deterring participation. The market is highly polarized; a tiny fraction of high-value contracts (1,000+ with over $10M volume) capture 47% of all trading volume, while the vast majority of markets are illiquid. Finally, the "Geopolitics" category is the fastest-growing, indicating rising user interest. The core insight is that liquidity in prediction markets is not evenly distributed but concentrates around events that offer either instant gratification (sports/crypto) or deep macro bets (politics), transforming Polymarket into a specialized financial tool rather than a universal prediction platform.

比推01/08 08:17

Dissecting 290,000 Data Points: We Uncovered 6 Secrets of Polymarket's Liquidity

比推01/08 08:17

Digging into 290,000 Market Data Points: Revealing 6 Truths About Polymarket's Liquidity

Based on an analysis of 295,000 markets on Polymarket, this report uncovers six key truths about its liquidity. A significant portion (22.9%) of markets are ultra-short-term (under 1 day), with 63% of these currently having zero trading volume, resembling the illiquidity of meme coins. While short-term crypto and sports markets exist, sports dominates short-term volume ($1.32M average) compared to crypto ($44k). Conversely, long-term markets (over 30 days), though fewer in number, are liquidity powerhouses, attracting large capital with an average liquidity of $450k. U.S. politics is the top category here, with an average trading volume of $28.17M. The analysis reveals a clear market dichotomy: short-term "casino-like" markets (crypto, sports) for small, high-frequency players, and long-term "macro" markets (politics, geopolitics) for large, patient capital. Most markets are concentrated in a few high-volume events, with 47% of all trading volume occurring in just 505 markets. New, complex markets like U.S. real estate face a "cold start" problem due to high expertise requirements and low volatility. Finally, the "Geopolitics" category is the fastest-growing, with the highest ratio of active-to-total markets (29.7%), indicating rising user interest. The core finding is that liquidity is not evenly distributed but clusters around events that offer either instant feedback or deep macro narratives.

marsbit01/08 07:34

Digging into 290,000 Market Data Points: Revealing 6 Truths About Polymarket's Liquidity

marsbit01/08 07:34

2025 Prediction Market Review: Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion, Top Two Players Hold Over 97.5% Market Share

2025 Prediction Market Review: Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion, Duopoly Holds Over 97.5% Market Share In 2025, the prediction market sector reached a total trading volume of $50.25 billion, with Kalshi and Polymarket dominating the landscape by capturing over 97.5% of the market share. The remaining ecosystem accounted for just $1.25 billion in trading volume, involving emerging platforms like Azuro, TrendleFi, and others. Kalshi reported a record-breaking year with a nominal trading volume of $23.8 billion, marking a 1,108% year-over-year increase. December alone saw $6.38 billion in trades, setting multiple historical highs. Polymarket’s annual volume was estimated at approximately $22 billion, though data varied across sources like DefiLlama and Dune. Sports dominated Kalshi’s trading volume (85%), while Polymarket saw a more diversified distribution: sports (39%), politics (34%), and cryptocurrency (18%). Other categories like economics and tech/science also saw significant growth, with open interest expanding substantially throughout the year. Trading activity surged in the second half of 2025, driven by major events and elections. November and December were particularly strong, with combined monthly volumes for Kalshi and Polymarket nearing $10 billion and exceeding $13 billion, respectively. The top platforms by historical trading volume were Kalshi ($27.1B), Polymarket ($23.2B), Opinion ($13.1B), Limitless ($512M), and Azuro ($444M). The sector is poised for further growth in 2026, fueled by events like the U.S. midterm elections and the World Cup.

Odaily星球日报01/08 01:36

2025 Prediction Market Review: Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion, Top Two Players Hold Over 97.5% Market Share

Odaily星球日报01/08 01:36

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