AI Era's 'Scarce Assets'? Goldman Sachs: HALO—Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence
In the AI era, market focus is shifting from scalable, light-asset business models to valuing hard-to-replicate physical assets and infrastructure, a trend Goldman Sachs terms "HALO" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence). This reflects a repricing of scarcity driven by higher real interest rates, geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain restructuring, and massive AI-driven capital expenditure.
HALO assets—such as power grids, pipelines, utilities, and critical industrial capacity—have high replication barriers (cost, regulation, engineering complexity) and remain economically durable across technology cycles. Meanwhile, AI is undermining the profitability and terminal value of some light-asset sectors (e.g., software, IT services) by reducing information costs and increasing competition. Notably, major tech firms are now becoming large-scale capital spenders, with projected Capex of $1.5 trillion from 2023-2026—surpassing their cumulative historical investment.
Since 2025, Goldman’s heavy-asset portfolio (GSSTCAPI) has outperformed its light-asset counterpart (GSSTCAPL) by 35%, driven by valuation rerating rather than broad de-rating of light assets. Macro factors support this shift: higher rates compress valuations of long-duration growth stocks, while manufacturing and capex cycles benefit heavy-asset firms. Earnings momentum is also stronger for heavy-asset companies, with higher expected CAGR (14% vs. 10%) and improving ROE. Despite recent gains, institutional positioning remains underweight value/heavy-asset stocks, suggesting further potential for outperformance.
marsbit02/25 08:50
