# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Macro

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Macro", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Global Asset Rotation: Why Does Liquidity Drive the Cryptocurrency Cycle? (Part 1)

This article introduces a new series on global asset allocation and rotation, arguing that liquidity—not new narratives—is the primary driver of cryptocurrency market cycles. While narratives like RWA or X-402 can attract attention, they are triggers, not fundamental drivers. The real force is capital flow: ample liquidity amplifies even weak narratives, while liquidity contraction undermains the most compelling ones. The framework begins by mapping global assets not by traditional labels (stocks, bonds, commodities) but by their roles and dependencies within economic and liquidity cycles. Cryptocurrency is reclassified not as a traditional risk asset (like equities, which have cash flows and valuation models) but as a non-cash-flow alternative asset. Its price action is driven primarily by capital inflows and outflows, making it highly sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite. Five key macro indicators are identified as core drivers: interest rates (especially real rates), inflation metrics (CPI, PCE), economic growth indicators (PMI, GDP), systemic liquidity (central bank balance sheets, money supply), and risk appetite (volatility indices, credit spreads). A causal chain is proposed: inflation influences interest rates, which affect liquidity, which then drives risk preference and ultimately asset prices. The U.S. remains the anchor for global capital flows, and understanding its monetary policy cycle is crucial. During loose monetary conditions, risk assets like crypto thrive; during tightening, defensive assets like cash and bonds outperform. The article concludes that a structured framework focusing on macro drivers and cyclical patterns is essential for understanding asset rotation, avoiding emotional decisions, and identifying when liquidity shifts toward high-risk assets like cryptocurrency.

marsbit12/26 23:39

Global Asset Rotation: Why Does Liquidity Drive the Cryptocurrency Cycle? (Part 1)

marsbit12/26 23:39

Japan’s CPI eases – Could a BOJ rate cut really help Bitcoin?

Japan's recent CPI slowdown, with Tokyo inflation dropping to 2% in December, has raised expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may maintain or even cut rates to boost liquidity. While such monetary easing is typically seen as bullish for crypto, the article suggests it may not significantly benefit Bitcoin. Despite potential BOJ support, investor risk appetite appears to be shrinking, with capital flowing strongly into traditional safe-haven assets like gold, silver, and platinum instead of digital assets. This trend, coupled with a declining Coinbase Premium Index for Bitcoin, indicates that macro improvements alone may not spark a crypto rally, as the hedge narrative for Bitcoin loses momentum.

ambcrypto12/26 17:05

Japan’s CPI eases – Could a BOJ rate cut really help Bitcoin?

ambcrypto12/26 17:05

Gold and Silver Repeatedly Hit New Highs, Why Has Bitcoin Fallen Instead of Rising?

In 2025, precious metals surged dramatically, with silver breaking above $50 and reaching a record high of $72/oz, gaining 143% annually, while gold hit $4,524.30/oz with a 70% yearly increase. In contrast, Bitcoin fell 8% year-to-date to $87,498, down 30% from its October peak of $126,000. This divergence challenges the "digital gold" narrative, as macro tailwinds driving metals—such as a weaker USD, Fed rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks—did not extend to cryptocurrencies. Investors preferred established safe havens like gold and silver, with central banks and retail buyers increasing physical holdings. Studies confirmed gold's stability during macro shocks, while Bitcoin behaved more as a high-beta risk asset, correlating with equities. Structural demand differences widened the gap: silver benefited from both safe-haven and industrial demand (e.g., solar panels, electronics), whereas Bitcoin lacks real-world utility and relies solely on financial speculation and on-chain settlements. Without industrial demand, Bitcoin depends on ETF inflows, which have recently turned negative. Silver's rally reflects macro pricing of low real rates and a weak dollar, underscoring Bitcoin's exclusion from the hard asset system. For Bitcoin to recover, clearer regulation, renewed institutional interest, or heightened appreciation of its censorship-resistant features may be needed. However, silver's crowded positioning poses indirect risks to Bitcoin if volatility spikes. The 2025 divergence shows Bitcoin has not yet achieved "hard asset" status. While it may outperform under specific conditions, it currently lacks the institutional trust and industrial utility that support precious metals.

marsbit12/26 05:57

Gold and Silver Repeatedly Hit New Highs, Why Has Bitcoin Fallen Instead of Rising?

marsbit12/26 05:57

Huobi Growth Academy | 2025 In-Depth Crypto Market Research Report: Institutions, Stablecoins, and Regulation, 2025 Crypto Market Review and 2026 Outlook

The 2025 crypto market marked a structural turning point, shifting from retail-driven speculation to an institutionally-dominated landscape. Capital inflows via ETFs and regulated channels transformed market dynamics, reducing volatility but increasing sensitivity to macro interest rates. Stablecoins evolved into core global settlement infrastructure, with RWA (particularly on-chain U.S. Treasuries) scaling significantly, merging crypto with traditional finance. Regulatory clarity lowered institutional barriers, accelerating adoption of crypto as a configurable, auditable financial infrastructure. However, vulnerabilities in algorithmic and yield-bearing stablecoins exposed systemic risks, highlighting the need for transparency and quality differentiation. Looking to 2026, key variables include the cost of compliant capital, the quality of on-chain dollar systems, and the sustainability of real yield. Success will favor infrastructure and assets that thrive under capital, yield, and regulatory constraints.

深潮12/25 09:19

Huobi Growth Academy | 2025 In-Depth Crypto Market Research Report: Institutions, Stablecoins, and Regulation, 2025 Crypto Market Review and 2026 Outlook

深潮12/25 09:19

Huobi Growth Academy | 2025 In-depth Crypto Market Research Report: Institutions, Stablecoins, and Regulation, 2025 Crypto Market Review and 2026 Outlook

The 2025 crypto market underwent a structural transformation driven by three key shifts: institutional adoption, the maturation of the on-chain dollar system, and regulatory normalization. Institutional capital became the marginal buyer via ETFs and regulated vehicles, reducing volatility but increasing sensitivity to macro factors like interest rates. The market shifted from narrative-driven speculation to liquidity-driven, macro-sensitive asset allocation. Stablecoins evolved into core infrastructure, serving as the primary settlement layer and dollar proxy for on-chain economy, with transaction volumes rivaling major payment systems. Real-World Assets (RWA), particularly tokenized U.S. Treasuries, scaled significantly, introducing low-risk yield curves on-chain and merging DeFi with traditional finance. However, algorithmic and yield-bearing stablecoin failures exposed systemic fragility due to leverage and opacity. Regulatory clarity reduced institutional entry barriers, turning compliance into a competitive moat. Valuation models began incorporating regulatory costs, legal stability, and compliance efficiency, shifting focus from growth metrics to sustainable infrastructure. Looking ahead to 2026, key variables include macro liquidity conditions, the quality stratification of on-chain dollar instruments, sustainability of real yields, and the institutional moats built around compliance and distribution. The winners will be assets and infrastructures that thrive within these new constraints of capital, yield, and regulation.

marsbit12/25 08:49

Huobi Growth Academy | 2025 In-depth Crypto Market Research Report: Institutions, Stablecoins, and Regulation, 2025 Crypto Market Review and 2026 Outlook

marsbit12/25 08:49

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

Kalshi Research's inaugural report demonstrates that prediction markets significantly outperform Wall Street consensus forecasts in predicting year-over-year CPI data, particularly during economic shocks. The study, analyzing data from February 2023 to mid-2025, shows Kalshi’s predictions had a 40.1% lower mean absolute error (MAE) than consensus forecasts overall. During major shocks (deviations >0.2 percentage points), Kalshi’s MAE was 50–60% lower, and for moderate shocks (0.1–0.2 points), it was 50–56.2% lower. When market predictions diverged from consensus by over 0.1 points, they correctly signaled a shock about 81% of the time and were more accurate in 75% of cases. The outperformance is attributed to diverse participant insights, direct financial incentives for accuracy, and efficient aggregation of dispersed information. These findings suggest prediction markets provide a valuable complementary signal, especially in volatile periods where traditional models often fail.

marsbit12/24 04:21

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

marsbit12/24 04:21

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

Kalshi Research's inaugural report demonstrates that prediction markets consistently outperform Wall Street consensus forecasts in predicting the U.S. year-over-year CPI inflation rate. The study, covering over 25 monthly CPI releases from February 2023 to mid-2025, shows Kalshi’s market-implied forecasts had a 40.1% lower mean absolute error (MAE) than consensus predictions across all environments. The advantage was most pronounced during economic "shocks." For large surprises (over 0.2 percentage points), Kalshi's forecasts were 50% more accurate a week before the data release, improving to 60% more accurate the day before. For medium surprises (0.1-0.2 percentage points), the advantage was similarly 50%, rising to 56.2% closer to the release. Crucially, a divergence of over 0.1 percentage points between the market forecast and consensus served as a strong signal, with an 81.2% probability that a shock would occur. When the two forecasts disagreed, the market prediction was more accurate 75% of the time. The report attributes this "Shock Alpha" to three factors: the "wisdom of crowds" aggregating diverse information, superior incentive structures that reward accuracy over conformity, and more efficient information synthesis, even with the same public data. This suggests prediction markets provide a valuable, differentiated signal for investors and policymakers, especially during periods of high uncertainty.

Odaily星球日报12/24 04:00

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

Odaily星球日报12/24 04:00

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs see persistent outflows as institutional appetite weakens

Institutional demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has weakened significantly, with net outflows persisting for over six weeks, according to data from Glassnode and SoSoValue. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $142.19 million recently, reducing total assets to $114.99 billion, while Ethereum ETFs saw a one-day inflow of $84.59 million but remain in a negative 30-day trend. Both assets have declined from their summer peaks—BTC trading around $88,351 and ETH near $2,976. The outflows reflect broader year-end de-risking, reduced risk appetite, and fading post-ETF approval enthusiasm. While this suggests a temporary cooling period rather than structural rejection, sustained positive flows will be essential for a strong price recovery in early 2026.

ambcrypto12/23 20:32

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs see persistent outflows as institutional appetite weakens

ambcrypto12/23 20:32

Why Analysts Are Predicting XRP Price Volatilty This Week

Financial markets are experiencing unusual ripples, with analysts predicting increased volatility for XRP this week. A key driver is the surge in Japan’s 10-year government bond yields, which have climbed above 2008 financial crisis levels to 1.8–2.0%. This reflects a break from Japan’s long era of ultra-low interest rates and tighter global liquidity conditions. The Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike to 0.75%—a 30-year high—has contributed to this shift. Rising yields make leveraged positions more expensive and reduce investor appetite for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Analysts Levi and Ted Pillows warn that these macro developments could spill over into crypto markets, leading to significant price swings for XRP in the coming days.

bitcoinist12/23 18:10

Why Analysts Are Predicting XRP Price Volatilty This Week

bitcoinist12/23 18:10

Macro Distortion, Liquidity Restructuring, and the Repricing of Real Returns

In an increasingly unreliable macroeconomic environment, this article examines the distortion of data, the resurgence of geopolitical risks, and the reevaluation of genuine yield sources. Key points include: - The unadjusted U.S. CPI for November came in at 2.7%, below expectations, but New York Fed President John Williams signaled caution, citing "technical factors" and the need for further validation. This reflects a broader loss of trust in macroeconomic data reliability. - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. pressure on Venezuela and potential Israeli strikes on Iran, are reintroducing inflation risks. These conflicts could disrupt oil supply chains and reignite global inflationary pressures. - In this context, the focus shifts from anticipating further rate cuts to identifying durable income sources: short-duration U.S. Treasuries, credit assets with clear cash flows, and structured trade or consumer finance assets. - R2 is positioned not as a predictive tool but as an adaptive system that offers transparent, verifiable yields from real-world assets—immune to policy shifts, liquidity illusions, and unexplained returns. The conclusion emphasizes building resilient income structures that remain valid across multiple macro scenarios, prioritizing clarity, sustainability, and risk-aware returns over speculative positioning.

marsbit12/23 13:57

Macro Distortion, Liquidity Restructuring, and the Repricing of Real Returns

marsbit12/23 13:57

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