Reddit Weekly Hot Stock Watch: RKLB/LUNR/ASTS Plunge Collectively, Is the Space Sector Still Worth Considering?
Reddit's stock communities witnessed a concentrated surge in discussion around space stocks last week, with SPCE, RKLB, LUNR, and ASTS leading the chatter. This often signals an underlying catalyst for investor attention. However, despite being grouped as "space plays," these companies have vastly different fundamentals and recent performances.
While SPCE (Virgin Galactic) saw a 22% single-day surge—potentially fueled by short covering and fallout from Blue Origin's rocket test anomaly—the other three stocks declined sharply. RKLB dropped 15%, LUNR fell 13%, and ASTS was down 7%. This divergence highlights they are not a monolithic sector.
The downturn for RKLB, LUNR, and ASTS stemmed from multiple headwinds converging: Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket explosion (directly impacting ASTS's launch plans), anticipation of SpaceX's massive IPO drawing funds away from these "alternative" public space stocks, and insider selling at RKLB after significant rallies.
A closer look reveals key differences: RKLB stands out with substantial, growing revenue ($113.9M in Q1) and a $2.2B backlog, though its high valuation (~80x Forward P/S) prices in success for its upcoming Neutron rocket. LUNR's reported revenue growth is largely acquisition-driven, with its core moon landing business facing a crucial test with the upcoming IM-3 mission. ASTS has a large potential market in space-based cellular connectivity but faces significant execution risk, especially after the Blue Origin launch setback. SPCE, despite high discussion volume, has minimal revenue and its recent spike appears driven more by sentiment than fundamentals.
The analysis suggests it's premature to call a "buying opportunity" for the sector broadly. RKLB is considered the most fundamentally sound but may be more attractive at a lower price point ($96-$102). For the others, investors are advised to wait for specific catalysts: LUNR's IM-3 mission outcome, clarity on ASTS's revised launch timeline, and for SPCE, to avoid the speculative frenzy. The long-term space thesis remains, but short-term valuations have run ahead of fundamentals for most names.
marsbit06/08 06:18
