# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Gemini

AI Prediction Record: Want to Make Money in Prediction Markets with AI? But It Might Not Even Have Read the Question Clearly

Based on an experiment comparing AI predictions against human "smart money" on Polymarket, this article investigates whether AI can reliably profit in prediction markets. The author tested Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro and xAI's Grok (via OpenRouter), both equipped with web search, on 21 resolved non-crypto market questions. The core finding is a divergence in performance: Grok achieved the highest win rate at 75%, outperforming humans (66.7%) and significantly beating Gemini (52.4%). However, a detailed analysis of the AI's reasoning revealed critical flaws. Gemini frequently misjudged the current date, leading to erroneous conclusions. Both models sometimes relied on superficial or commonsense assumptions instead of deep, evidence-based logic. A major failure mode was misinterpreting the specific settlement conditions of a market, such as confusing "any files" with "all files" being released. While Grok's results are promising, the experiment concludes that AI often fails to fully comprehend the question's nuances, highlighting a significant gap between raw information retrieval and true contextual understanding needed for reliable prediction.

marsbit01/04 08:59

Fintechs prediction market addons will cost them in churn: Inversion CEO

cointelegraph12/22 02:04

Gemini nabs US license to offer prediction markets

Crypto exchange Gemini, founded by the Winklevoss twins, has received a designated contract market license from the CFTC, allowing it to offer prediction markets in the US. Through its affiliate Gemini Titan, the company plans to let users trade event contracts and expand into crypto derivatives like futures and options. The announcement caused Gemini's stock to surge 13.7% in after-hours trading. The license marks the end of a five-year application process and could significantly boost the company, which has seen its stock decline since its public debut. President Cameron Winklevoss stated that prediction markets could potentially rival or exceed traditional capital markets in size.

cointelegraph12/11 01:55

Bitpush Daily News Highlights: Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points as expected; Fed to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills within 30 days; Gemini approved by CFTC to enter prediction market

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.50%-3.75%. The Fed will purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills over the next 30 days. Gemini receives CFTC approval to enter the prediction market with its new platform, Gemini Titan, initially offering binary contracts and planning to expand into crypto derivatives. State Street Bank and Galaxy Digital announce plans to launch SWEEP, a tokenized liquidity fund on Solana in 2026, using PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin for redemptions. If SpaceX IPOs at a $1.5 trillion valuation, Elon Musk’s net worth could reach $952 billion. Sei partners with Xiaomi to pre-install a Web3 wallet and app discovery platform on new smartphones outside China and the US, with plans to introduce stablecoin payments in retail by 2026.

比推12/10 23:46