# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Compliance

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Compliance", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Why Did It Take Prediction Markets Nearly 40 Years to Explode?

This article explores the explosive growth of prediction markets in 2025, which saw an estimated 400% increase in trading volume, reaching $40 billion, and a user base growing to 15 million. It examines why, despite existing since the 1980s (e.g., Iowa Electronic Markets), prediction markets only recently surged in popularity. Key factors for the 2025 boom include major regulatory progress. The CFTC approved platforms like Polymarket as designated contract markets, allowing them to operate legally in the US. This compliance enabled wider distribution, integration into major apps like Robinhood, and attracted institutional investment, with both Polymarket and Kalshi securing over $1 billion in new funding. Regulatory clarity also allowed for a diversification of event types, including sports and crypto, which now dominate trading volume. The article contrasts prediction markets with traditional gambling, noting the US government distinguishes them based on their "positive externalities." Unlike sportsbooks that set odds, prediction markets facilitate peer-to-peer betting, aggregating collective knowledge to improve information efficiency and decision-making, which regulators view as socially beneficial despite gambling-like elements. A provocative section discusses insider trading. Some argue that insiders using non-public information on anonymous, decentralized platforms like Polymarket can enhance market accuracy and serve as a form of information discovery. However, this may harm retail trader trust and long-term liquidity. In conclusion, the convergence of regulatory approval, product improvement, and AI-driven tools created a perfect environment for prediction markets to thrive in 2025, though questions about fairness, competition, and global adoption remain open.

marsbit12/31 03:49

Why Did It Take Prediction Markets Nearly 40 Years to Explode?

marsbit12/31 03:49

2025 Global Crypto Regulatory Map: The Dawn of the Co-optation Era, The Year Crypto and TradFi Converged

The year 2025 marks a pivotal turning point for global crypto regulation, shifting from a period of "wild growth" to the beginning of an era of institutional "incorporation." This transition is characterized by a fundamental change in regulatory logic across major economies, moving crypto from the fringes into the mainstream financial system. In the U.S., a significant policy reversal occurred with the new administration. The SEC ended its aggressive enforcement-based approach under new leadership, and the passage of the GENIUS Act established a federal framework for stablecoins, granting holders priority claims in case of issuer bankruptcy. The U.S. also officially recognized Bitcoin as a strategic national asset. The EU fully implemented its MiCA framework, creating a unified regulatory landscape with high compliance costs that forced smaller players out of the market. It also exhibited "monetary protectionism" by imposing strict limits on non-euro stablecoins. Hong Kong adopted an aggressive strategy, enacting its Stablecoin Ordinance and positioning itself as a hub for institutional-grade asset clearing and RWA tokenization, creating a unique bridge between Chinese and international capital. Japan signaled a major shift by proposing to drastically reduce crypto taxation from 55% to 20%, aligning it with stocks, in an effort to reclaim its position in Asian crypto finance. The overarching theme of 2025 is "incorporation." Regulators are no longer trying to eliminate crypto but are instead systematically integrating it into the existing financial landscape under clear, auditable rules. This has triggered a massive reshuffling in the stablecoin sector, which sits at the intersection of Crypto and TradFi (Traditional Finance). The market is splitting into compliant, "whitelisted" stablecoins for payments and a parallel ecosystem of crypto-native stablecoins focused on decentralization. The conclusion is clear: compliance is not the end goal but a necessary gateway for Web3 to access trillion-dollar markets. The key challenge for participants is to discern between temporary noise and the foundational changes that will shape the future.

marsbit12/30 14:00

2025 Global Crypto Regulatory Map: The Dawn of the Co-optation Era, The Year Crypto and TradFi Converged

marsbit12/30 14:00

What Compliance Risks Lie Behind Trip.com's Overseas Version's USDT Payment?

Trip.com's overseas platform has introduced USDT payment, allowing users to book flights and hotels using the stablecoin. While this offers benefits like potential discounts from exchange rate differences and bypassing traditional cross-border payment fees and limits, it also carries significant compliance risks under Chinese regulations. For personal use, if the USDT comes from legal sources (e.g., mining or legitimate exchange purchases), occasional small transactions may not be criminally prosecuted but could still violate foreign exchange rules. A major risk is unknowingly using "black USDT" linked to illegal activities like fraud, which could lead to frozen bank accounts and lengthy legal investigations. Helping others book travel for profit, however, constitutes illegal business activity under Chinese law. Repeated or large-scale operations may lead to charges like illegal business operations or money laundering, especially if the USDT sources are suspicious. To stay compliant, users should ensure payment, booking, and user identities match exactly, retain proof of legitimate fund sources, and avoid profiting from exchange rate arbitrage. Engaging in "U booking" services for others is strongly discouraged due to high criminal liabilities. Ultimately, while USDT payments offer convenience, users must prioritize legal compliance to avoid severe financial and legal consequences.

深潮12/30 02:33

What Compliance Risks Lie Behind Trip.com's Overseas Version's USDT Payment?

深潮12/30 02:33

Looking Back at Prediction Markets by the End of 2025: Scale, Players, and the Watershed Moment

By the end of 2025, prediction markets have fundamentally shifted from being event-driven tools reliant on black swan events to platforms sustained by structural trading demand. The total monthly trading volume has grown from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $1 billion by late 2025, indicating a phase of explosive growth and consistent liquidity. The industry has evolved into five distinct segments: 1. **Compliant Markets**: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, exchange-like) and Polymarket (globally liquid, later US-compliant) lead with institutional and high-frequency trading, especially in sports contracts. 2. **Crypto-Native Experiments**: Platforms like Opinion explore high-risk, crypto-policy, and speculative events, driving innovation but facing regulatory uncertainty. 3. **High-Frequency Trading Platforms**: Limitless shortens contract cycles, blurring lines between prediction markets and derivatives trading. 4. **Embedded Markets**: Myriad Markets integrates prediction features into wallets and super-apps, reducing user acquisition costs and making participation more casual. 5. **Native Information Markets**: Platforms like predict.fun and media integrations use incentives and community mechanisms to blend prediction with content and social interaction. Regulation in 2025 has not meant full liberalization but rather the establishment of boundaries—predictive contracts are recognized as financial instruments, yet state-level gambling laws remain a friction point. The core shift for users is understanding that these markets now price uncertainty and reflect consensus, not just binary outcomes. Looking ahead, prediction markets are becoming tools for understanding uncertainty rather than mere betting arenas, with projections suggesting significant future growth. 2025 marks the beginning of this structural transformation.

比推12/29 23:05

Looking Back at Prediction Markets by the End of 2025: Scale, Players, and the Watershed Moment

比推12/29 23:05

Thirteen Ministries and Seven Associations Issue Document to Prevent Virtual Currency Risks, Where is the Path for RWA?

On December 5th, seven Chinese industry associations, including the Internet Finance Association and the Banking Association, jointly issued a "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Activities Involving Virtual Currencies." This follows a meeting on November 28th where thirteen government ministries and commissions discussed cracking down on virtual currency speculation. The document signals a tightening regulatory environment, causing concern among entrepreneurs planning Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization projects in mainland China. The core of RWA involves digitizing and tokenizing offline assets using blockchain technology for secondary market trading and financing. However, under China's current regulatory framework, any tokenization activity linked to public trading challenges the red lines established in the September 24, 2021 notice. The recent Risk Warning reinforces these strict prohibitions. The document explicitly states that no RWA activities have been approved by financial regulators in mainland China. Key legal obstacles include: 1. The定性 (qualification) of such activities as illegal fundraising and unauthorized securities offerings. 2. A complete ban on financial institutions and payment platforms providing settlement or promotional services for these businesses. 3. The non-legal status of stablecoins involved in RWA, which touches upon monetary sovereignty. Conducting RWA business in mainland China thus carries significant legal risks, including potential criminal penalties. This stringent stance is seen as a preventative measure to avoid systemic financial risks, akin to the previous P2P lending crisis. While the domestic market is effectively closed, opportunities may exist in offshore markets like Hong Kong and Singapore. The associations' warning also notes that overseas service providers offering services within China is illegal. However, purely offshore operations—where the underlying assets, funding, servers, and compliant entities are all outside mainland China and do not involve RMB outflow—might not be explicitly forbidden. This creates a potential "outlet" for assets to connect with international markets in a compliant manner. Theoretically, a path exists for Chinese companies to use an ODI (Overseas Direct Investment) structure to establish a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) and tokenize assets like factory or mineral rights in Hong Kong. However, in practice, this is extremely challenging due to complex cross-border asset verification rules, strict scrutiny over foreign exchange and capital repatriation (which could be deemed illegal fundraising), and legal risks for individuals within China managing overseas crypto businesses. The current period is one of heightened regulatory scrutiny and unified opposition from multiple ministries. The prevailing advice, even in Hong Kong, is to pause and wait. Existing projects are advised to heed "window guidance," either stopping operations or completely transitioning to a full offshore model. In conclusion, RWA was never truly viable in mainland China under the current rules. The recent notices simply reinforce existing red lines. The real opportunity for ambitious Chinese companies lies in complex, fully offshore operations that meticulously navigate legal compliance, foreign exchange management, and international private placement rules—completely severed from mainland RMB, retail investors, and domestic promotional channels. The paramount advice is longevity over speed; legal red lines are not to be tested. The current silence may precede future standardization. Those planning offshore RWA ventures are advised to seek professional legal consultation for compliance and structuring.

marsbit12/29 11:36

Thirteen Ministries and Seven Associations Issue Document to Prevent Virtual Currency Risks, Where is the Path for RWA?

marsbit12/29 11:36

Thirteen Ministries and Seven Associations Issue Document to Prevent Virtual Currency Risks, Where is the Path for RWA?

Summary: On December 5th, seven Chinese industry associations, following a prior inter-ministerial meeting, issued a "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Activities Involving Virtual Currencies." This article analyzes the implications for Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization in mainland China. The core conclusion is that RWA projects are effectively prohibited within mainland China. The warning explicitly states that no RWA activities are approved by financial regulators. Key legal obstacles include: 1) classification as illegal fundraising or unauthorized securities issuance, 2) a complete ban on support from financial institutions and payment platforms, and 3) the non-legal status of related stablecoins, which touches on monetary sovereignty. Operating such projects domestically carries significant legal risks, including potential criminal penalties. However, the article identifies a potential path for offshore operations. While the warning also states that overseas service providers targeting mainland customers is illegal, purely offshore businesses (with assets, capital, servers, and entities all outside China, and no involvement of RMB) might be feasible, particularly in jurisdictions like Hong Kong or Singapore. This is framed as a strategic "release valve" connecting China's internal economy with external cycles. Theoretically, using an ODI (Overseas Direct Investment) structure to transfer asset rights to an offshore SPV for tokenization is possible. But in practice, this faces major hurdles: complex cross-border asset verification (often viewed as capital flight), strict scrutiny and potential blockage of fund repatriation, and legal risks for individuals within China managing the business. The current environment is a high-pressure period. The pragmatic advice is to avoid any domestic operations, including targeting Chinese residents or using RMB. For existing projects, the best strategy is to pause or fully transition to a complete offshore model. The emphasis is on longevity over speed, advising thorough legal compliance and structure design for any overseas RWA ventures.

深潮12/29 11:33

Thirteen Ministries and Seven Associations Issue Document to Prevent Virtual Currency Risks, Where is the Path for RWA?

深潮12/29 11:33

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