# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Bitcoin

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Bitcoin", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Your Backtest Is Lying: Why You Must Use Point-in-Time Data

The article warns that backtests using revised historical data are misleading due to look-ahead bias. It illustrates this with a hypothetical trading strategy based on Bitcoin exchange outflows from Binance: entering the market when the 5-day moving average of BTC balance falls below the 14-day average, and exiting on the reverse. Initial backtest results using current data appeared reasonably successful, even comparable to buy-and-hold at times. However, the author argues this is deceptive because metrics like exchange balances are often revised retroactively as new data arrives, meaning a backtest uses information that wasn't available in real-time. Re-running the identical strategy using Point-in-Time (PiT) data—which is immutable and reflects only what was known when the data was first published—yielded significantly worse performance. The PiT-based strategy failed to capture key market upswings as effectively, resulting in meaningfully lower cumulative returns. The key takeaway is that only immutable, Point-in-Time data ensures a backtest accurately replays history without look-ahead bias, and that using revised data will produce lying backtests.

insights.glassnode03/13 14:12

Your Backtest Is Lying: Why You Must Use Point-in-Time Data

insights.glassnode03/13 14:12

Bitcoin Policy Institute to Assess Federal Reserve Basel Proposal on Bitcoin Risk Rules

The Bitcoin Policy Institute announced it will review an upcoming Federal Reserve proposal that could influence how U.S. banks handle Bitcoin under international banking rules. The Fed is expected to release a proposal next week detailing how major banks should apply Basel risk-weighting regulations, followed by a 90-day public comment period. Currently, Basel rules assign Bitcoin a 1250% risk weight, classifying it as an extremely high-risk asset. This requires banks to hold significantly larger reserves to cover Bitcoin-related exposures, which critics argue discourages banking engagement with the cryptocurrency sector. The policy could restrict services for Bitcoin firms, custody solutions for investors, and overall financial infrastructure supporting Bitcoin. The Institute plans to analyze the proposal and submit formal feedback, as the outcome may shape traditional banks' future involvement in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

TheNewsCrypto03/13 14:03

Bitcoin Policy Institute to Assess Federal Reserve Basel Proposal on Bitcoin Risk Rules

TheNewsCrypto03/13 14:03

Altcoin Spot Activity Slumps, But Bitcoin Volume Stays Resilient

On-chain data reveals a divergence in cryptocurrency spot trading volumes. While the combined spot volume for the top 500 digital assets has been in a sustained slump since October 2023, Bitcoin's volume has shown resilience. After initially declining with the broader market, BTC's spot activity saw a significant uplift in February, including a large spike during a sharp price drop. This suggests the ongoing market-wide decline is primarily driven by reduced altcoin activity. In related news, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recently registered positive weekly net flows after a period of outflows, potentially signaling a shift in institutional sentiment. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is trading around $70,400.

bitcoinist03/13 13:03

Altcoin Spot Activity Slumps, But Bitcoin Volume Stays Resilient

bitcoinist03/13 13:03

Bitcoin and Gold Diverge as Iran Conflict Shifts ETF Flows

According to a JPMorgan investor note, the traditional correlation between Bitcoin and gold has significantly broken down due to the Iran conflict, with the two safe-haven assets moving in opposite directions. While geopolitical instability typically drives unified flows into havens, capital is now shifting toward Bitcoin. Since February 27, major gold ETFs have seen outflows of about 2.7% of assets under management. In contrast, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded inflows of approximately 1.5% in the same period. This reversal indicates growing institutional preference for Bitcoin ETFs over gold, despite crypto's higher volatility. JPMorgan also noted rising short interest in IBIT amid the conflict, even as ETF inflows continue.

TheNewsCrypto03/13 12:59

Bitcoin and Gold Diverge as Iran Conflict Shifts ETF Flows

TheNewsCrypto03/13 12:59

The Next Bitcoin Bull Market May Begin with a Private Credit Crisis

The next major Bitcoin bull market may be triggered by a crisis in the private credit sector, according to an analysis by Jordi Visser. Although Bitcoin and other liquid assets are typically sold off first during a liquidity crisis, the core opportunity arises in the subsequent phase when governments intervene with stimulus measures. The private credit market, valued at around $3 trillion and projected to reach $5 trillion by 2029, is showing signs of stress, including redemption limits and asset write-downs. A significant risk stems from heavy exposure to software companies, whose business models are being disrupted by AI, undermining assumptions about stable cash flows and high margins. Bitcoin is currently under pressure due to its correlation with both software stocks and global liquidity conditions. However, historical patterns—such as during the March 2020 crash and the 2023 regional banking crisis—show that Bitcoin tends to decline sharply during initial panic but rebounds strongly once policymakers inject liquidity. The U.S. financial system, characterized by high sovereign debt and deep financialization, is unlikely to tolerate prolonged credit contraction. When retail and institutional funds are exposed to opaque private credit risks, government intervention becomes inevitable. Bitcoin, originally conceived as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system resistant to centralized financial control, stands to benefit from such interventions. Its underlying value is reinforced when governments bail out over-leveraged, non-transparent systems. As financial infrastructure evolves toward 24/7 operation and AI accelerates economic transactions, Bitcoin’s role as a neutral, scarce, digital asset may grow more critical. In summary, a private credit crisis could catalyze Bitcoin’s next bull run by exposing systemic fragility, triggering policy responses, and ultimately validating Bitcoin’s original thesis: a hedge against financial instability and arbitrary monetary expansion.

marsbit03/13 11:55

The Next Bitcoin Bull Market May Begin with a Private Credit Crisis

marsbit03/13 11:55

Bitcoin Tax Battle: Bitcoin Policy Institute Pushes For Inclusion, Coinbase Tackles Allegations

The Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) has released a report addressing ongoing U.S. legislative efforts to establish a Bitcoin de minimis tax exemption. Pro-crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis is advocating for a standalone bill proposing a $300 transaction threshold and a $5,000 annual cap, alongside measures to prevent double taxation for miners and stakers. The bill is projected to generate $600 million over a decade. However, with midterm elections approaching and Lummis leaving the Senate in 2027, BPI warns that the window for passing such legislation is narrowing. Meanwhile, Coinbase has denied allegations that it lobbied against the tax exemption to favor stablecoins, with its Chief Policy Officer stating the company "has never and will never lobby against Bitcoin."

bitcoinist03/13 11:32

Bitcoin Tax Battle: Bitcoin Policy Institute Pushes For Inclusion, Coinbase Tackles Allegations

bitcoinist03/13 11:32

Buy BTC or MSTR? Analyzing the Capital Flywheel of MicroStrategy

MicroStrategy's mNAV (market cap to Bitcoin holdings ratio) has compressed to near parity, sparking debate about whether the premium will re-expand. The core argument centers on the company's ATM equity issuance strategy. Critics view it as shareholder dilution, while supporters see it as rational Bitcoin accumulation. However, both miss the deeper strategic shift: MicroStrategy is building a layered capital structure that operates differently across mNAV regimes. At ~1x mNAV (current phase), equity issuance is used to buy Bitcoin directly, justified by long-term undervaluation. In high mNAV regimes (3-4x+), equity becomes a tool to repay debt from preferred securities, not just acquire Bitcoin. The introduction of preferred stock attracts yield-seeking investors, creating a continuous funding source for Bitcoin purchases but also dividend obligations. The ATM acts as a proactive de-leveraging tool, building equity ahead of future payment needs. mNAV expansion may return not only from Bitcoin price appreciation but also from the market valuing MicroStrategy as a scalable Bitcoin capital markets platform. The company is evolving from a Bitcoin treasury into a financial engine with distinct investor segments: yield investors in preferred securities and growth investors in equity. This could form a self-reinforcing "capital flywheel": preferred demand funds Bitcoin buys, equity demand values platform growth, and Bitcoin appreciation strengthens the balance sheet. The discussion may shift from *if* mNAV premium returns to *how large* this financial platform can become.

marsbit03/13 11:08

Buy BTC or MSTR? Analyzing the Capital Flywheel of MicroStrategy

marsbit03/13 11:08

Matrixport Research: After Five Consecutive Months of Bitcoin Decline, Conditions for a Market Rebound Are Gradually Forming

Matrixport Research: Conditions for a Market Rebound Gradually Forming After Bitcoin's Consecutive Five-Month Decline Amid low trading volumes and weak market sentiment, with many investors shifting focus to traditional assets like gold and oil, underlying market conditions are quietly improving. Bitcoin has declined for five consecutive months—a historically rare occurrence—which has often preceded阶段性反弹 (stage-wise rebounds) in the past. Similarly, the total market cap of altcoins has fallen to a range that has historically triggered multiple rebound initiations. Although the overall altcoin model has not yet turned bullish, the number of altcoins reclaiming their 30-day moving average and showing improved momentum through quantitative screening has significantly increased. With stablecoin funds flowing back into the market, overall liquidity conditions are also improving, pointing to a potential market inflection window. From a historical perspective, Bitcoin often experiences阶段性反弹 (stage-wise rebounds) after three consecutive months of decline in a bear market. A sustained decline of four to six months with little recovery is relatively rare. The market is currently in such an extreme sequence, increasing the probability of a short-term counter-trend recovery. Simultaneously, the valuation of the altcoin sector has entered a range where周期性反弹 (cyclical rebounds) have historically been more likely. When the total altcoin market cap deviates approximately 30% from its 90-day moving average, the market is often in a bottom-building phase, followed by sustained recovery in Bitcoin and altcoins. Although trading volume remains low, the price structure of some altcoins has begun to improve, and Bitcoin is potentially building a阶段性底部 (stage-wise bottom) near $66,000. If prices hold the current support zone and gradually break through key resistance levels, the recovery process is expected to continue. Despite the overall weak performance of altcoins this cycle, some structural changes are emerging. More altcoins are reclaiming their 30-day moving average and beginning to outperform Bitcoin—often an early signal of improved market momentum. The number of altcoins selected through quantitative momentum screening has also increased significantly, with some tokens simultaneously exhibiting improved momentum and fundamental catalysts. More importantly, the market funding environment is changing. The previous dynamic dominated by liquidations and capital outflows is gradually shifting towards capital回流 (inflows). The re-expansion of stablecoin liquidity is a key signal; in the past month, Circle's USDC alone recorded approximately $8 billion in net inflows, indicating that capital is re-entering the crypto market. As liquidity gradually improves, the probability of capital being reallocated to Bitcoin and Ethereum is also rising, which will provide support for a broader market. Overall, while crypto market sentiment remains subdued, multiple key conditions are gradually forming. After a historically rare streak of monthly declines, Bitcoin appears to be building a potential bottom; stablecoin funds are回流 (flowing back), improving market liquidity. Simultaneously, the altcoin market breadth is expanding, with more tokens reclaiming their 30-day momentum threshold. Although the altcoin model has not yet officially turned bullish, trading setups meeting screening conditions have risen to their highest level in months. If Bitcoin confirms a trend breakout above key points, the probability of a broader阶段性反弹 (stage-wise rebound) will further increase.

Matrixport03/13 10:14

Matrixport Research: After Five Consecutive Months of Bitcoin Decline, Conditions for a Market Rebound Are Gradually Forming

Matrixport03/13 10:14

A New Round Every 5 Minutes: Polymarket Is Stealing the Futures Trading Platform Business

A friend who used to trade perpetual contracts has switched to a "cleaner" form of speculation: Polymarket’s 5-minute Bitcoin price prediction markets. Here, users buy “Yes” or “No” shares on whether Bitcoin’s price will be higher after 5 minutes. A $10 bet on “Yes” returns $100 if correct; if wrong, the user loses only the $10 stake—no liquidation, funding fees, or sudden price spikes causing unexpected losses. This product has quickly gained traction. Within a month of launch, daily trading volume reached over $60 million, accounting for 67% of all crypto directional predictions on Polymarket. The market runs 24/7, with a new 5-minute round starting every five minutes. The appeal lies in its simplicity and transparency. Unlike perpetual contracts, where leverage can lead to rapid liquidations and complex fee structures, the 5-minute market offers capped risk and instant outcomes. It attracts users looking for high-frequency, low-barrier, and instant-result speculation. Polymarket operates on a conditional token framework (CTF) on Polygon, with prices settled via Chainlink Data Streams. To prevent latency arbitrage, it uses dynamic fees: higher when market probability nears 50% (max uncertainty), lower when outcomes are clearer. Twenty percent of fees are rebated to market makers to improve liquidity. However, AI trading bots are active, with some developers claiming over 80% win rates by leveraging vast amounts of intraday data. Polymarket has partnered with Palantir and TWG AI to monitor trading and detect market abuse, creating an AI-vs-AI dynamic. Major exchanges are responding by integrating prediction markets. Binance launched Opinion (OPN), Coinbase integrated Kalshi, and Gemini built its own predictions platform after securing a CFTC license. Kalshi’s integration with Robinhood helped its annual volume surge from $300 million to $23.8 billion, showing the power of distribution. Regulatory challenges remain. In the U.S., the CFTC claims jurisdiction over prediction contracts as swaps, while many states treat them as gambling and have sued or banned platforms. Similar conflicts exist in the EU and Asia, where some countries outright ban such platforms. In summary, Polymarket’s success shows that many users prefer simple, high-frequency outcome-based speculation over complex leveraged products. As exchanges rush to adopt similar offerings, regulatory uncertainty persists, but user adoption continues to grow.

marsbit03/13 09:44

A New Round Every 5 Minutes: Polymarket Is Stealing the Futures Trading Platform Business

marsbit03/13 09:44

Gold Trapped in the Desert, Borderless Bitcoin: The New Paradigm of Wealth in an Era of War

Title: Gold Trapped in the Desert, Borderless Bitcoin: A New Paradigm of Wealth in Times of War The recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, has led to a severe disruption at Dubai International Airport—a critical global hub for trade and logistics. This crisis has exposed a significant vulnerability in the traditional financial system: the complete paralysis of physical gold transportation. Gold, often regarded as the ultimate safe-haven asset, relies on an intricate and high-security logistics network, including specialized transport, armed guards, and multi-million-dollar insurance policies. However, during times of war, this system collapses. Flights are grounded, airspace becomes unsafe, and gold suppliers are unable to move their inventories. As a result, gold traders in Dubai are forced to sell at discounts of up to $30 per ounce to avoid mounting storage costs, insurance premiums, and opportunity costs—highlighting the irony of a避险资产 becoming a financial burden. In contrast, Bitcoin demonstrates unparalleled resilience in such crises. While its price may experience volatility during geopolitical turmoil, its true value lies in its non-physical, censorship-resistant nature. Unlike gold, Bitcoin does not require physical transport, is not subject to confiscation at borders, and can be transferred across the globe instantly with just a 12- or 24-word seed phrase. This makes it an ideal store of value for individuals and businesses caught in conflict zones, where traditional financial systems and physical assets fail. The Dubai gold crisis underscores a broader shift in the paradigm of wealth preservation. Physical gold, despite its historical prestige, is constrained by its materiality and dependence on centralized infrastructure. Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital asset, offers a solution that transcends borders, governments, and physical limitations. In an era of increasing geopolitical instability, the ability to carry one’s wealth seamlessly and securely—without the constraints of weight, logistics, or censorship—positions Bitcoin as the modern embodiment of financial sovereignty.

marsbit03/13 08:11

Gold Trapped in the Desert, Borderless Bitcoin: The New Paradigm of Wealth in an Era of War

marsbit03/13 08:11

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