Stop Gambling Within the Framework of Luck

marsbitОпубликовано 2026-01-05Обновлено 2026-01-05

Введение

Stop Gambling Under the Guise of Fortune Human instinct drives us to act quickly when facing problems, creating an illusion that action alone can ease the anxiety of the unknown. However, the greatest trap lies in the mismatch between rapid action and the resources invested. Most actions are merely pseudo-diligence aimed at alleviating anxiety. When the speed of action surpasses the precision of thought, the consumption of capital is no longer an investment—it becomes a gamble on luck. This is a common pitfall, and the ability to confront it and develop effective solutions truly separates individuals. The first step is to find your unique edge. Rather than following idealized or high-barrier methods, the author suggests using AI as a "cognitive leverage amplifier" to help identify personal strengths. By engaging in detailed self-analysis through AI conversations—discussing childhood, personality, investment experiences, and missed opportunities—one can uncover and refine their advantages through constructive dialogue and counterarguments. The second step involves building an execution framework. After identifying a direction, it’s crucial to establish a systematic approach that allows agile responses to dynamic market conditions. This framework is built through复盘 (review and reflection)—extracting underlying logical patterns from past experiences, such as recognizing similar opportunities like $AERO and $ZORA based on Coinbase’s strategic needs, and turning them into a reu...

Author: Yuzhong Kuangshui

Human instinct drives us to take immediate action when faced with problems, as if action can alleviate the anxiety of the unknown. However, the biggest trap lies in the fact that people's rapid actions often do not match the resources they commit. Most people's actions are merely pseudo-diligence to relieve anxiety. When the speed of action exceeds the precision of thinking, the consumption of your principal is no longer an investment but a gamble on luck—you are using tactical diligence to掩盖 strategic laziness.

This is a problem everyone encounters. Whether one can face this problem directly and develop effective solutions can truly widen the gap between people.

Remember, think before you act.

Step One: Find Your Unique Advantage

0xlykt has written two articles on how to "Finding Edge".

https://0xlykt.substack.com/p/finding-edge

https://0xlykt.substack.com/p/finding-edge-part-2-table-selection

I recommend reading these two articles before continuing.

Simply put, 0xlykt has constructed a capability framework to help the general public seek opportunities in the current crypto market environment. The core idea is to encourage market participants to actively choose a suitable table with many fish and engage in positive-sum games.

However, I believe these two articles are referential, but the described approach has a high threshold, is too idealized, and not suitable for everyone.

Personally, I think that at the practical level, we can completely find a path suitable for ourselves and effective through dialogue with AI. As @Wuhuoqiu mentioned, "AI is not a 'cognitive leveler' but a 'cognitive leverage amplifier'."

The specific form of prompts varies from person to person. The core idea is to analyze and extend. Analyze your own personality, cognition, and ability framework, thereby extending execution ideas and details for different scenarios.

Don't ask AI how to make money, whether to buy or sell, but confide your thoughts and current situation to AI.

Talk to AI about:

  • Your childhood, personality, hobbies, and early life experiences;
  • Your investment experiences and summaries, judgments about the future;
  • The assets you are bullish on, your holdings and logic, and holding period;
  • What opportunities you missed and why.

One thing to note here is that AI tends to agree with you, so you need to find points you don't understand or doubt in AI's responses and continue discussing them. Or, you need to remind AI not to be your yes-man but to refute you with reason.

This kind of conversation is essentially a dialogue between the superficial you and the inner you, more confrontational. The conversation should be against the current, not with it.

Advantages and potential advantages will emerge in the conversation. After all, using AI to perform elimination is much more efficient than thinking and practicing one by one. What follows tests your execution ability to monetize your advantages.

Step Two: Establish an Execution Framework

Finding an advantage is essentially finding the direction to make money. After finding the direction, it's not all smooth sailing; you need to make persistent efforts to build a systematic framework for your subsequent execution.

The core goal of building a systematic framework is to give you the ability to react agilely in a dynamically changing market—to respond quickly based on different market conditions and types of opportunities.

The core of building a systematic framework is review and summarization.

For example.

If you reviewed the pumping process of $AERO (listing, Coinbase spot listing, and pumping time nodes, etc.), you wouldn't have missed the opportunity of $ZORA's rise. Both trades correspond to Coinbase's core needs. $AERO corresponds to the Dencun upgrade; Coinbase needed to pump $AERO's price to capture liquidity for Base. Similarly, $ZORA corresponds to Coinbase's core needs; Coinbase is betting its future on Base App and Creator Coins. Zora is a core component of Base's new phase; Coinbase needed to pump $ZORA to expand the influence of Base and Creator Coins. In my view, the opportunistic nature of $AERO and $ZORA is identical.

Review and summarization are not limited to the empirical induction of each trade but to extract the underlying logical commonality from individual cases and transform it into a reusable decision-making model: signal recognition -> logic verification -> execution entry.

Finally

After all this rambling, simply put, what I want to say is to know yourself. Most of the pain in trading often comes from the mismatch between personality and holdings. Give up the fantasy of being omnipotent; human ability has boundaries. You can't have it all. Find or cultivate your advantages, and use your own strengths and the ability framework built upon them to make money.

Wish everyone a Happy New Year!

Связанные с этим вопросы

QWhat is the main trap the author warns against when facing problems, according to the article?

AThe main trap is that human instinct drives immediate action to alleviate anxiety about the unknown, but rapid action often doesn't match the resources invested. This leads to 'pseudo-diligence' where people are essentially gambling with their capital, using tactical busyness to掩盖 strategic laziness.

QWhat is the core idea behind 0xlykt's 'Finding Edge' framework as described in the article?

AThe core idea of 0xlykt's 'Finding Edge' framework is to encourage market participants to actively choose a 'table' (a market or opportunity) that suits them and has many 'fish' (opportunities or participants), engaging in a positive-sum game rather than a zero-sum one.

QHow does the author suggest using AI to find one's unique advantage, and what should the conversation focus on?

AThe author suggests having a dialog with AI that focuses on introspection and extension. One should talk to the AI about their childhood, personality, hobbies, early life experiences, investment history and summaries, future judgments, favored assets and the logic behind holding them, missed opportunities, and the reasons for missing them. The conversation should be adversarial, with the user prompting the AI to challenge their ideas rather than just agree.

QWhat is the purpose of building a 'system framework' after finding one's edge?

AThe purpose of building a 'system framework' is to equip oneself with the ability to react agilely in a dynamically changing market. It allows for quick responses based on different market conditions and types of opportunities, moving beyond just finding a direction to creating a structured approach for execution.

QWhat common underlying logic does the author illustrate using the examples of $AERO and $ZORA?

AThe author illustrates that the price surges of $AERO and $ZORA both stemmed from the same underlying logic: they corresponded to core needs of Coinbase. $AERO was tied to the Dencun upgrade and Coinbase's need to capture liquidity for Base, while $ZORA was a core component for Coinbase's new phase focusing on the Base App and Creator Coins, requiring a price pump to increase their influence. The commonality is identifying and acting on signals related to a major platform's strategic needs.

Похожее

Can a Hair Dryer Earn $34,000? Deciphering the Reflexivity Paradox in Prediction Markets

An individual manipulated a weather sensor at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport with a portable heat source, causing a Polymarket weather market to settle at 22°C and earning $34,000. This incident highlights a fundamental issue in prediction markets: when a market aims to reflect reality, it also incentivizes participants to influence that reality. Prediction markets operate on two layers: platform rules (what outcome counts as a win) and data sources (what actually happened). While most focus on rules, the real vulnerability lies in the data source. If reality is recorded through a specific source, influencing that source directly affects market settlement. The article categorizes markets by their vulnerability: 1. **Single-point physical data sources** (e.g., weather stations): Easily manipulated through physical interference. 2. **Insider information markets** (e.g., MrBeast video details): Insiders like team members use non-public information to trade. Kalshi fined a剪辑师 $20,000 for insider trading. 3. **Actor-manipulated markets** (e.g., Andrew Tate’s tweet counts): The subject of the market can control the outcome. Evidence suggests Tate’sociated accounts coordinated to profit. 4. **Individual-action markets** (e.g., WNBA disruptions): A single person can execute an event to profit from their pre-placed bets. Kalshi and Polymarket handle these issues differently. Kalshi enforces strict KYC, publicly penalizes insider trading, and reports to regulators. Polymarket, with its anonymous wallet-based system, has historically been more permissive, arguing that insider information improves market accuracy. However, it cooperated with authorities in the "Van Dyke case," where a user traded on classified government information. The core paradox is reflexivity: prediction markets are designed to discover truth, but their financial incentives can distort reality. The more valuable a prediction becomes, the more likely participants are to influence the event itself. The market ceases to be a mirror of reality and instead shapes it.

marsbit41 мин. назад

Can a Hair Dryer Earn $34,000? Deciphering the Reflexivity Paradox in Prediction Markets

marsbit41 мин. назад

First Day Review of "Musk's WeChat" XChat: Even Worse Than Expected

Elon Musk's much-anticipated "WeChat-like" app, XChat, has officially launched after multiple delays. The initial review reveals a product that falls short of expectations, offering an experience largely similar to X Platform's (formerly Twitter) direct messages, despite being marketed as an encrypted communication tool. Key observations from the first-day test include: 1. The app's promoted "end-to-end encryption" and its claimed relation to Bitcoin's architecture were criticized by experts as a superficial attempt to capitalize on crypto buzz, with no real technical connection. 2. Musk's vision of an ad-free "secure communication system" is technically met, but only because the app is currently extremely basic, featuring only a single chat interface. 3. A promised anti-screenshot feature appears inconsistent; it works in X Platform group chats but fails within the XChat app itself, where screenshots still capture avatars. 4. The app supports 45 languages and has a 16+ age rating, indicating a broader tolerance for content compared to WeChat's 13+ rating. 5. A puzzling login process requires users to verify the email associated with their X account. 6. The touted encryption" feels minimal in practice, with its presence only indicated by a simple "Encrypted - Yes" label on messages. 7. Disappearing message timers for groups can be set from 5 minutes to 4 weeks, with the timer starting upon being read by a user. 8. Group invite links are shared with X Platform groups. 9. Group size limits are planned to be increased, aiming for 1000 members, a move that has drawn user criticism. 10. The app offers 8 different colored icons, and its chat bubbles are notably similar to WeChat's. Message deletion options mimic Telegram's. Crucially, many pre-announced features like importing X contacts, integrating Grok AI, X Money payments, and Cashtags are not yet available. The initial release is seen as a bare-bones and underwhelming first step.

Odaily星球日报1 ч. назад

First Day Review of "Musk's WeChat" XChat: Even Worse Than Expected

Odaily星球日报1 ч. назад

Торговля

Спот
Фьючерсы

Популярные статьи

Как купить US

Добро пожаловать на HTX.com! Мы сделали приобретение Talus Network (US) простым и удобным. Следуйте нашему пошаговому руководству и отправляйтесь в свое крипто-путешествие.Шаг 1: Создайте аккаунт на HTXИспользуйте свой адрес электронной почты или номер телефона, чтобы зарегистрироваться и бесплатно создать аккаунт на HTX. Пройдите удобную регистрацию и откройте для себя весь функционал.Создать аккаунтШаг 2: Перейдите в Купить криптовалюту и выберите свой способ оплатыКредитная/Дебетовая Карта: Используйте свою карту Visa или Mastercard для мгновенной покупки Talus Network (US).Баланс: Используйте средства с баланса вашего аккаунта HTX для простой торговли.Третьи Лица: Мы добавили популярные способы оплаты, такие как Google Pay и Apple Pay, для повышения удобства.P2P: Торгуйте напрямую с другими пользователями на HTX.Внебиржевая Торговля (OTC): Мы предлагаем индивидуальные услуги и конкурентоспособные обменные курсы для трейдеров.Шаг 3: Хранение Talus Network (US)После приобретения вами Talus Network (US) храните их в своем аккаунте на HTX. В качестве альтернативы вы можете отправить их куда-либо с помощью перевода в блокчейне или использовать для торговли с другими криптовалютами.Шаг 4: Торговля Talus Network (US)С легкостью торгуйте Talus Network (US) на спотовом рынке HTX. Просто зайдите в свой аккаунт, выберите торговую пару, совершайте сделки и следите за ними в режиме реального времени. Мы предлагаем удобный интерфейс как для начинающих, так и для опытных трейдеров.

444 просмотров всегоОпубликовано 2025.12.11Обновлено 2025.12.11

Как купить US

Обсуждения

Добро пожаловать в Сообщество HTX. Здесь вы сможете быть в курсе последних новостей о развитии платформы и получить доступ к профессиональной аналитической информации о рынке. Мнения пользователей о цене на US (US) представлены ниже.

活动图片