Trading Strategies

Shares practical strategies, techniques, and risk management methods. By combining market case studies with technical analysis, it helps traders optimize decision-making and enhance profitability.

4 Classic Bottom-Fishing Indicators All Failed, 3 New Indicators Point to the Bottom-Fishing Opportunity?

The article analyzes the shifting effectiveness of traditional Bitcoin bottom-buying indicators and proposes new metrics to identify potential market bottoms. Four classic indicators are discussed: - **MVRV Z-Score** (currently ~1.31) is distorted by institutional holdings, making historical "extreme negative" values unlikely. - **Ahr999 Index** has remained below 0.45 for nearly 50 days, but its long-term predictive power has diminished due to macro factors. - **SOPR Metrics** show STH-SOPR consistently below 1 (bearish), while LTH-SOPR remains between 0.75–1, indicating no full capitulation. - **Mayer Multiple** (price/200-day MA) has also stayed below 0.8 for 50 days but lacks consistent predictive strength. Three alternative indicators are suggested: 1. **CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed)**: Models a historical "iron bottom" near $45,000. 2. **NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)**: Currently at 0.2; negative values often signal market bottoms. 3. **Stablecoin Exchange Netflow**: Sustained inflows of USDT/USDC to exchanges typically precede rebounds by 2–4 weeks, but current outflows suggest no immediate bottom. The conclusion emphasizes that indicators are reference tools, not guarantees, and cautions that widespread public euphoria (e.g., mainstream adoption talks) may signal a sell opportunity rather than a buy.

Odaily星球日报Вчера 13:22

4 Classic Bottom-Fishing Indicators All Failed, 3 New Indicators Point to the Bottom-Fishing Opportunity?

Odaily星球日报Вчера 13:22

Heavy Recommendation in Less Than a Month, Goldman Sachs Suggests "Going Short" on HALO Trade

Goldman Sachs has executed a sharp reversal in its investment recommendation regarding the HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) trade within a month. After actively promoting the HALO narrative in late February, citing the AI-driven surge in capital expenditure from tech giants and structural tailwinds for physical assets, the bank now recommends shorting a specific basket of U.S. stocks, labeled GSXUHALT. This basket targets companies with high asset density but zero or negative earnings growth expectations, whose stock prices have rallied excessively alongside the broader HALO theme without fundamental support. Goldman's analysis indicates the market has been indiscriminately buying heavy-asset stocks, pushing some low-quality names to outperform higher-quality counterparts. The bank's data shows this basket peaked in late February and has begun to decline. The shift signals that the HALO trade's initial phase may be over, and internal differentiation is crucial. Goldman advises pairing this short position with thematic long opportunities, noting that the recent market pullback has created significant "buy-the-dip" potential in other sectors. The core message is that not all heavy-asset stocks are equal; investors must now distinguish between those with durable competitive advantages and those merely riding the trend.

marsbitВчера 02:21

Heavy Recommendation in Less Than a Month, Goldman Sachs Suggests "Going Short" on HALO Trade

marsbitВчера 02:21

Top 11 Telegram trading bots of March 2026

Telegram trading bots have become essential tools for crypto traders, offering speed, automation, and convenience directly within the messaging app. These bots help users execute trades quickly, manage portfolios, and automate strategies like sniping new tokens, copy trading, and setting limit orders. The top bots include BONKbot and GMGN for Solana-focused trading; BullX Bot and Maestro for multi-chain support; BananaGunBot and TrojanBot for security and speed; and beginner-friendly options like TradeSanta. While each bot has unique strengths—such as security features, low fees, or user-friendly interfaces—traders should research carefully to match a bot’s capabilities with their individual strategies and risk tolerance.

ambcrypto2 дня назад 12:46

Top 11 Telegram trading bots of March 2026

ambcrypto2 дня назад 12:46

Using AI for Weather Prediction: Earn $200 a Day While Doing Nothing?

Using AI for Weather Prediction: Can You Really Earn $200 a Day? This article explores how to leverage AI and data analysis to profit from weather prediction markets like Polymarket, focusing on Shanghai’s temperature forecasts. The system relies on Shanghai Pudong Airport (ZSPD) weather station data, sourced via Wunderground, rather than general city forecasts. Key insights include: - Temperature data is reported in whole Fahrenheit values in METAR format, not Celsius, affecting precision. - Historical data shows daily high temperatures most frequently occur between 11:00-13:00, peaking at 12:00 in summer (27.6% of days). Three effective prediction methods were implemented: 1. **Integrated Forecasting**: Combines Weather Company (WC) and ECMWF model data, weighted by weather conditions (e.g., sunny days favor WC). 2. **Real-Time Correction**: Uses morning temperature rise data and historical patterns to extrapolate the daily high, adjusted for cloud cover and wind. A Kalman filter dynamically weights real-time data vs. forecasts. 3. **Temperature Trend Model**: Predicts whether the day will be warmer/cooler than the previous day using pre-dawn data (pressure changes, wind, cloud cover, recent trends). It performs best in winter (clear signals) but poorly in autumn (63.7% accuracy). Two failed methods—Fourier analysis (systematic underestimation) and ERA5 peak-time prediction (insufficient precision)—were discarded. Case studies demonstrate the system identifying mispriced market opportunities, such as recognizing nighttime warming from moist air during rainfall, when public sentiment lagged. Limitations include autumn inaccuracy, lack of real-time pressure data, and unresolved coastal wind effects. Ultimately, the goal isn’t perfect accuracy but leveraging informational edges when odds are favorable.

marsbit2 дня назад 12:18

Using AI for Weather Prediction: Earn $200 a Day While Doing Nothing?

marsbit2 дня назад 12:18

Now is the Best Time to Interact with Polymarket (Exclusive Tutorial Included)

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, is currently offering an exceptional opportunity for users to earn liquidity provider (LP) rewards, particularly due to a massive $2 million subsidy program for NCAA's "March Madness" basketball tournament events. The core strategy for effective interaction is to focus on accumulating these LP rewards instead of solely trading, as a significant majority of users have never received any. To qualify, users must provide liquidity on specific, subsidized events by placing orders within a maximum spread (e.g., ±1¢) and a minimum share amount (e.g., 1000 shares). Rewards are distributed daily, but only if they exceed $1. The article provides a step-by-step guide: First, select an event with high subsidies from the Rewards page, preferably one starting later to minimize price volatility and inventory risk. For example, a game starting days later showed almost no price movement. Next, use the Split function to create equal buy and sell shares from a minimum of $1000, then place limit sell orders on both sides. It's advised to place orders slightly away from the market price (e.g., the second position) to reduce the risk of orders being filled, which would require rebalancing. Users should monitor their positions and consider withdrawing orders about one day before the event starts to avoid last-minute volatility, then potentially move funds to a later event. The author reports earning $4.31 in rewards over a few hours with minimal effort, highlighting that the current high subsidies and low volatility make this a relatively low-risk strategy to enhance one's Polymarket activity profile.

Odaily星球日报2 дня назад 09:49

Now is the Best Time to Interact with Polymarket (Exclusive Tutorial Included)

Odaily星球日报2 дня назад 09:49

From 'Scientist' to 'Prophet': How Did OpenClaw Help Him Earn $100,000 in 10 Days?

This article features an interview with Kevin, a trader who used OpenClaw to turn $30,000 into over $100,000 in just 10 days on the prediction market platform Polymarket. Originally an ERP architect and later a developer of sports betting systems, Kevin entered the crypto space in 2018. He made his first significant profit during the 2023 "inscription summer" with ORDI. In summer 2025, he shifted to Polymarket, attracted by its improved liquidity and user experience. Initially, he used automated arbitrage strategies between betting odds, doubling his initial $100,000 investment. Since late February, he integrated OpenClaw into his strategy. While 60% of his funds still run automated arbitrage, 40% are now managed with OpenClaw-assisted subjective betting. OpenClaw helps by gathering and weighting factors like smart money movements, public sentiment, and team lineups—even uncovering new influencing factors. It also automates backtesting and execution. Kevin highlights Polymarket’s AI-friendly API as a key advantage. Currently, OpenClaw is experimenting mainly in sports betting with small automated bets (~$1,000). Kevin plans to develop and sell packaged OpenClaw "Skills" based on his strategy in the future.

比推03/16 13:13

From 'Scientist' to 'Prophet': How Did OpenClaw Help Him Earn $100,000 in 10 Days?

比推03/16 13:13

If You Bought One Deep OTM Bitcoin Put Option Every Month Since 2018, Could You Make Money in the Long Run?

Based on a systematic backtest from 2018 to 2026, this study examines the long-term profitability of a monthly strategy of buying one deep out-of-the-money (OTM) put option on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with a target delta of 0.01 and a 30-day expiration. The results are highly divergent. The strategy is not a stable source of profit but a classic, path-dependent tail insurance tool characterized by extreme right skew, very low win rates, and severe drawdowns. For BTC, the strategy yielded a final total return of 97.62% (CAGR: 8.66%), while for ETH, it resulted in a -73.07% loss (CAGR: -14.78%). The performance difference is attributed to BTC's extreme payouts being sufficient to cover the long-term cost of premiums, whereas ETH's were not. Key characteristics of the strategy include: * Extremely low win rates (BTC: 2.04%, ETH: 1.02%). * Catastrophic maximum drawdowns (BTC: -97.24%, ETH: -93.82%). * The median trade return was -100% for both assets. * Profits are driven entirely by a few extreme winning trades, with the top 5 trades contributing over 10x the net profit for BTC. * Notably, not all major market crashes (e.g., March 2020, LUNA, FTX) resulted in profitable positions due to timing and strike price placement. Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that a delta of 0.02 offered a more balanced risk-return profile across metrics. The strategy is best suited for investors who can tolerate years of continuous losses, view it as portfolio insurance rather than a primary alpha generator, and seek convexity against extreme downside events. It is not suitable for those seeking stable returns or with low risk tolerance.

marsbit03/16 11:11

If You Bought One Deep OTM Bitcoin Put Option Every Month Since 2018, Could You Make Money in the Long Run?

marsbit03/16 11:11

Post-Mortem of the Venus THE Attack: How to Profit in a Fleeting Window?

Approximately two hours ago, Venus Protocol's THE token was exploited using a classic Mango Markets-style price manipulation attack. The attacker targeted THE, a low-liquidity collateral asset, by depositing it, borrowing other assets, and using those to buy more THE, artificially inflating its price. Once the time-weighted average oracle updated, the inflated price allowed further leveraged borrowing. To bypass THE's borrowing cap, the attacker performed a "donation attack" by transferring THE directly to the vTHE contract, increasing the recognized collateral value. After the first manipulation phase, THE's price stabilized around $0.50. The attacker attempted to further amplify gains by continuing to buy THE, but mounting sell pressure limited price increases and pushed their health factor near 1.0, risking liquidation. The collateral, nominally valued around $30M, had extremely low liquidity, making large-scale liquidation at inflated prices impossible. Recognizing the situation, the writer opened a short position on THE with high leverage, anticipating a price collapse due to overvaluation, illiquidity, and forced selling. After liquidation, THE price plummeted to ~$0.24, below its pre-attack level, resulting in a ~$15K profit for the writer. Venus Protocol was left with ~$2M in bad debt. The attacker likely gained little or lost funds, though may have profited from off-chain positions. The event highlights that nominal collateral value in DeFi does not equal realizable value during liquidity crises.

marsbit03/16 08:37

Post-Mortem of the Venus THE Attack: How to Profit in a Fleeting Window?

marsbit03/16 08:37

Earning $100,000 in 10 Days: An Interview with OpenClaw's Practical Experience in Prediction Markets

In an interview with Odaily Planet Daily, Kevin, a former ERP architect and Web3 investor, shares how he used OpenClaw to generate a profit of approximately $100,000 in just 10 days, turning a $30,000 investment into over $130,000 at its peak (currently around $112,000). Kevin began his crypto journey during the "inscription summer" of 2023, earning his first significant returns from ORDI. He later transitioned to prediction markets, specifically Polymarket, in mid-2025, attracted by its improved liquidity and user experience. Initially, he used self-developed algorithmic strategies for arbitrage, primarily in sports betting markets, doubling a $100,000 investment over several months. Since integrating OpenClaw in late February, Kevin adopted a hybrid approach: 60% of his strategy remains automated arbitrage, while 40% uses OpenClaw for predictive betting. OpenClaw helps gather and analyze factors like smart money movements, public sentiment, team lineups, and player conditions—even identifying new influencing variables. It also automates backtesting, strategy discovery, and execution, making it effective in Polymarket due to its AI-friendly API. While currently focused on sports markets with limited automated capital ($1,000 per test account), Kevin plans to expand into other domains and may later offer paid OpenClaw "Skills" based on his methodology.

Odaily星球日报03/16 06:25

Earning $100,000 in 10 Days: An Interview with OpenClaw's Practical Experience in Prediction Markets

Odaily星球日报03/16 06:25

When the Spreads Reach 50%: The Rise of Pre-Market Crypto-Stock Arbitrage

In the context of the crypto bear market, a new arbitrage opportunity is gaining traction: pre-IPO stock tokenization trading across different platforms. The article highlights significant price discrepancies—sometimes exceeding 50%—for high-profile companies like Kalshi, Polymarket, and SpaceX (xAI) on platforms such as PreStocks, Jarsy, and Tessera. These gaps, driven by varying trading mechanisms and liquidity conditions, reveal a strong market demand for a unified platform that bridges traditional and crypto pre-market trading. The piece argues that building such an intermediary could capitalize on these arbitrage opportunities, especially with a wave of major IPOs expected in 2026, while generating revenue through trading fees and liquidity provision.

比推03/16 04:36

When the Spreads Reach 50%: The Rise of Pre-Market Crypto-Stock Arbitrage