Written by: Theclues
I. The Trap of Fixed Perceptions
For a long time, there was a deeply ingrained ranking of market difficulty in my mind: Commodities > A-shares > US stocks > Crypto. The logic behind this ranking seemed rigorous:
- Commodities require deep industry research, macroeconomic judgment, and understanding of geopolitics
- A-shares are filled with policy games and information asymmetry
- US stocks are a mature market with high institutional pricing efficiency
- Crypto is the youngest, with transparent information, "the simplest"
But this logic has a fatal flaw: equating the complexity of a market with the difficulty of making profits from investing. The result was hesitating before "complex" markets and only dabbling in "simple" ones.
II. Reflections at the End of 2025
Those markets deemed "simplest"恰恰是回报率最高的; those considered "most complex" and requiring in-depth research反而举步维艰.
I used to always ask: "How much professional knowledge does this market require?"
Now the question should be: "What determines the price in this market?"
III. Retail Investors Are Not Noise, They Are the Main Melody
The Misguidance of Traditional Financial Education
From the first day we接触投资, we are indoctrinated with a "rational market" narrative:
- Prices reflect fundamentals
- The market will eventually correct mistakes
- Retail investors are noise traders who will be taught a lesson by the market
This narrative might hold true in institution-dominated markets but fails completely in markets聚集散户.
The True Operating Logic of Retail Markets: In markets dominated by retail investors, like Crypto, Meme coins, and A-share thematic stocks, prices are not determined by fundamentals but by the collective sentiment of retail investors.
This is not a market "defect" but an essential characteristic of the market. When 1 million retail investors simultaneously believe a coin will rise to $1, their buying behavior itself pushes the price up, and the rising price attracts more retail investors—this is what Soros calls reflexivity.
Key Cognitive Shift:
- Before: Retail irrationality was an error that needed correction
- Now: The collective behavior of retail investors is itself the strongest price driver
In retail markets, emotion is not an干扰项 for price but a decisive variable.
IV. Reflexivity: The Core Mechanism of Retail Markets
What is Reflexivity? Soros's theory of reflexivity simply means: perception influences reality, and reality in turn reinforces perception.
In retail markets, this cycle is amplified to the extreme: Price increases → Retail investors notice → FOMO buying → Price continues to rise → More people FOMO → Price accelerates上升
This cycle doesn't stop because "valuation is too high," because retail markets have no stable valuation anchor.
Why is Reflexivity Weak in Institutional Markets?
In institution-dominated markets like US stocks:
- Valuation models constrain prices (PE, DCF, industry comparables)
- Quantitative strategies automatically arbitrage (deviations are corrected immediately)
- Fundamentals ultimately matter (failing to meet earnings expectations leads to crashes)
Reflexivity is suppressed by rational forces, limiting the amplitude of rises and falls.
Why is Reflexivity Strong in Retail Markets?
In retail-dominated markets like Crypto and Meme coins:
- No公认的 valuation system (How much is a Meme coin worth? No one knows)
- Lack of effective arbitrage mechanisms (Retail investors don't sell because "valuation is too high")
- Sentiment can脱离基本面 for a long time (Until the sentiment is exhausted)
Reflexivity can persist to absurd degrees, with astonishing price swings.
V. The Source of Predictability: Emotion is More Regular than Fundamentals
The Unpredictability of Fundamentals: Researching commodities or US stocks requires predicting:
- Macroeconomic trends (What will the Fed do?)
- Industry supply and demand changes (When will new energy demand explode?)
- Company operational conditions (Will next quarter's earnings beat expectations?)
These variables are full of uncertainty; even top institutions often misjudge.
The Predictability of Emotion: In retail markets, you only need to understand one thing: human nature. The emotional path of retail investors is highly predictable:
- Ignorance Phase: New thing emerges, most people ignore it
- Curiosity Phase: Minor discussion, small price increase
- Trial Phase: Early adopters enter, price rises steadily
- FOMO Phase: Social media buzz, price surges
- Mania Phase:全民参与, "financial freedom" topics刷屏
- Panic Phase: Price crashes, cries of "scammed"
- Despair Phase: Ignored, rumors of going to zero
This cycle repeats in every hype, differing only in duration and magnitude. The evolution of emotion is easier to track and predict than changes in fundamentals.
VI. Opportunities on Both Sides: Volatility Itself is Value
In the traditional investment framework:
- Find a good company → Hold long-term → Wait for value realization
- The core is "going long," shorting is seen as speculation
This works in long-term upward markets (like US stocks) but is a huge waste of opportunity in high-volatility retail markets.
Bilateral Opportunities in Retail Markets: In retail-dominated markets:
- Certainty of Rise: When sentiment turns from negative to positive, reflexivity pushes prices up
- Certainty of Fall: After sentiment peaks, collapse is inevitable
The certainty is equally high in both directions.
Key Insight: In retail markets, one shouldn't just focus on "rising" but understand the emotional pendulum—the complete cycle from one extreme to the other.
VII. Why Retail Markets?
The Dilemma of Institutional Markets: In institution-dominated markets (US stocks, commodities):
- Information Barriers: Retail investors cannot access deep industry chain information, first-hand research data
- Research Depth: Institutions have professional teams, retail can't match
- Pricing Efficiency: Price deviations are quickly arbitraged, little room for alpha
Retail is at an absolute disadvantage here. The Equality of Retail Markets: In retail-dominated markets (Crypto, Meme coins):
- Transparent Information: On-chain data is public, social media sentiment is trackable
- Emotion-Driven: No need for deep research, understanding human nature is enough
- High Volatility: Reflexivity creates huge long/short opportunities
Retail and institutions stand on the same starting line,甚至 retail is more flexible.
Essential Difference:
- Institutional markets compete on information and research depth (I have no advantage)
- Retail markets compete on understanding human nature (Everyone has a chance)
VIII. The Essential Cognitive Leap
From "Choosing a Market" to "Choosing a Crowd": Which market's price is determined by sentiment? Which market is dominated by retail?
- Go to the "predictable" market. From "Researching Assets" to "Understanding Sentiment"
- What stage of the emotional cycle are retail investors in now?
- How long can reflexivity last?
From "Seeking Value" to "Following Certainty"
- Identify the inflection points of retail sentiment,顺应 reflexivity
- Understand the operating laws of the market
IX. Conclusion: Redefining Investment Difficulty
The difficulty of investing lies not in how complex the market is, but in whether the factors determining prices are predictable. In markets聚集散户, emotional deviations are predictable, offering opportunities on both long and short sides.
This is not "降维打击" or "harvesting韭菜," but understanding the true operating mechanism of the market:
- In institutional markets, rationality is the dominant force
- In retail markets, emotion is the dominant force
The essence of investing is not finding the "right" market, but finding the "right" logic.
When I let go of the obsession with "professional" and "complex," and instead embraced "emotion" and "reflexivity," I understood what certainty is.
