Perspective: The current AI supercycle will last 15 years, but most are still buying stocks in the first FOMO stage

marsbitОпубликовано 2026-05-09Обновлено 2026-05-09

Введение

This article outlines a 15-year AI supercycle, segmented into four investment stages. It argues that while most investors are still focused on the first stage, smart money is already moving to the third. **Stage 1: The Foundation (2023-2025) - Priced In** The semiconductor layer (e.g., NVIDIA, AMD) is complete. While growth continues, the historic entry opportunity is over as risk/reward has compressed. **Stage 2: The Build-Out (2025-2027) - In Progress** This phase involves building the necessary physical infrastructure: power/utilities (CEG), cooling (VRT), networking (ANET), and nuclear SMRs (OKLO, SMR). Significant upside remains, but obvious names have already moved. **Stage 3: The Asymmetric Bet (2026-2028) - Positioning Window** AI moves into the physical world. Key areas include robotics/autonomy (Tesla Optimus), space/defense/drones (Rocket Lab, LUNR), and critical materials. This stage presents the best asymmetric risk/reward and is where positioning should occur now. **Stage 4: The Endgame (2028+) - Software Dominance** The mega-cap cloud platforms (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta), with their massive capital expenditure, will build the AI software layer and AGI infrastructure, aiming to win the entire cycle. **Core Conclusion:** The cycle is confirmed in Stage 2. Stage 3 (robotics, space, defense, nuclear SMRs) is where capital is currently rotating for maximum opportunity, while the majority of investors are expected to be 12 months behind this shift.

Author: Rand Group (@cryptorand)

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Intro: Crypto KOL Rand Group breaks down the AI supercycle into four stages, from chips to infrastructure to robots to platform software, marking the core targets and risk-reward ratios for each stage. His judgment is: Stage 1 (Semiconductors) is over, Stage 2 (Power/Cooling/Networks) is being priced, and the true asymmetric opportunity lies in Stage 3 — robotics, space, defense, nuclear energy.

The AI supercycle will last 15 years. This is year three.

Most investors are still buying Stage 1 stocks, but smart money is already rotating into Stage 3.

I've broken the entire cycle into four stages, with the most important tickers labeled for each.

The AI supercycle is the biggest investment theme of this generation. Bigger than mobile internet, bigger than cloud computing. A 15-year structural shift that will reshape every industry in the global economy. Hyperscale cloud providers just committed $725 billion in capex for 2026, nearly double last year's. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta — each over $100 billion individually.

This is not speculation.

🔴 Stage 1: Over (2023-2025)

The foundation layer is complete. AMD was up 78% in 2025, NVDA up 39%, Intel just delivered a blowout Q1, pushing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index above 10,000 for the first time. Chips still drive every stage, but the historic entry opportunity is gone; the risk-reward has compressed.

Tickers: NVDA, AMD, ARM, INTC, AVGO, MU, GLW

Sectors: Semiconductors, Memory, Photonics/Optics

Status: Foundation complete, still growing, but priced in.

🟡 Stage 2: Buildout Peak (2025-2027)

The stage most investors are just waking up to. CEG acquiring Calpine to become the largest private U.S. power producer at 55 GW. GEV up over 200% in a year. VRT co-designing cooling for NVIDIA's Rubin architecture. GLW up 74% YTD on fiber demand. Nuclear SMR is the biggest dark horse — OKLO, SMR, BWXT are laying direct power lines for data centers.

Still upside, but the most obvious names have moved.

Tickers: CEG, GEV, VRT, VST, TLN, ANET, GLW, MOD, EQIX, OKLO, SMR, BWXT, NNE

Sectors: Power/Grid, Cooling, Networking, Nuclear SMR Buildout Peak

Note: Nuclear SMR is the hidden major opportunity.

🟡 Stage 3: Positioning Window (2026-2028)

The stage where AI leaves the data center and enters the physical world. Most will be late.

Tesla is converting its Fremont factory into an Optimus robot production line — $25 billion capex, targeting mass production in H2 2026. Rocket Lab posted a record $602M revenue, backlog at $1.85B. LUNR up 47% YTD with $943M in contracts. KTOS's Valkyrie drone selected by the Marine Corps.

The positioning window is open now.

Tickers: TSLA, RKLB, LUNR, KTOS, AVAV, PATH, ISRG, MP, FCX, ALB, ASTS

Sectors: Robotics/Autonomy, Space/Defense/Drones, Rare Earths

Judgment: The asymmetric risk-reward is here.

🟢 Stage 4: Endgame (2028+)

The endgame. Microsoft capex $190B, Alphabet $190B, Amazon $200B, Meta $145B. Google Cloud backlog exceeds $460B. They are building AI software dominance and AGI infrastructure. Quantum computing is early, but IONQ and D-Wave are laying the groundwork.

The platforms controlling the software layer win the entire supercycle.

Tickers: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL, IONQ

Sectors: AI Software Dominance, AGI Infrastructure, Decade-long thesis

Strategy: Buy the dips.

Key Conclusions

  • Stage 2 is confirmed (hyperscale $725B capex)
  • Stage 3 is where smart money is positioning — robotics, space, defense, nuclear
  • SMR is the core trade from 2026 to 2028
  • Most will rotate into these names 12 months late

A 15-year supercycle. Not a single trade. Stage 1 is over, Stage 2 is being priced, Stage 3 is where you should be.

Связанные с этим вопросы

QAccording to the article, what is the author's view on the duration and current stage of the AI supercycle?

AThe author believes the AI supercycle will last 15 years and is currently in its third year. The first stage (2023-2025) is already over, the second stage (2025-2027) is in progress, and the third stage (2026-2028) is where the most asymmetric opportunities lie.

QWhat sectors or 'stages' does the author identify as having the best asymmetric risk/reward opportunity right now?

AThe author identifies the third stage as having the best asymmetric risk/reward opportunity. This stage includes robotics/autonomous systems, space/defense/drones, and rare earths, with specific mentions of companies like Tesla, Rocket Lab, and Intuitive Machines.

QWhich specific sector within the 'construction boom' (second stage) is highlighted as a major hidden opportunity?

AWithin the second stage (the construction boom), the author highlights nuclear energy, specifically Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), as the major hidden opportunity. Companies mentioned include Oklo, NuScale Power (SMR), and BWX Technologies.

QWhat key metric is cited as evidence confirming the transition to the second stage of the AI supercycle?

AThe author cites the $725 billion in committed capital expenditure for 2026 by hyperscale cloud providers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) as the key metric confirming the transition to the second stage. This amount is nearly double that of the previous year.

QWhat does the author suggest is the strategy for investing in the 'Endgame' (fourth stage) companies?

AFor the 'Endgame' or fourth stage companies (like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta), which control the AI software platform, the author's suggested strategy is to 'buy the dips,' indicating a long-term, patient accumulation approach.

Похожее

Dogecoin Price Just Entered A Critical Level, But Analyst Says It’s Not Time To Buy

Dogecoin has returned to a major long-term level on its monthly chart, entering what analyst Trader Tardigrade identifies as a critical resistance zone. Historically, this zone within a massive descending broadening channel has seen only two visits in the past decade—in 2017 and 2020—each followed by a strong rejection and deep correction. The coin has already dropped 8% after testing this area. Crucially, the analyst's chart is inverted; the "resistance" line is actually a bullish support line on a normal price chart. Past rejections from this line preceded major rallies. Therefore, the current price action near $0.0937 is viewed as a return to support, with potential for an upward bounce. A move above $0.10 could signal improving sentiment, while a break above $0.25 would confirm a bounce from support. The inverted chart structure even suggests room for significant upside toward double-digit targets.

bitcoinist6 мин. назад

Dogecoin Price Just Entered A Critical Level, But Analyst Says It’s Not Time To Buy

bitcoinist6 мин. назад

Ripple’s RLUSD Lands In Mastercard’s Stablecoin Settlement Expansion

Mastercard is expanding its stablecoin settlement capabilities, adding Ripple's RLUSD alongside other regulated stablecoins like USDC and PYUSD. This move allows issuers and acquirers to settle card transactions using digital assets on various blockchains, including Ethereum, Solana, and the XRP Ledger. The enhancement introduces intraday, weekend, and holiday settlement options, aiming to provide more flexibility, especially for cross-border payments and treasury operations. Mastercard positions this as a network-level addition that complements existing processes, with initial support focused on the US and Latin America. Ripple views RLUSD's inclusion as validation for regulated stablecoins in institutional payment infrastructure, highlighting the growing demand for faster, always-on settlement.

bitcoinist1 ч. назад

Ripple’s RLUSD Lands In Mastercard’s Stablecoin Settlement Expansion

bitcoinist1 ч. назад

Fei-Fei Li's Team Clarifies the Concept of 'World Models', Sora Merely a Renderer

"World Models" has become a widely used yet confusing term in AI. To address this, a team led by Fei-Fei Li and World Labs proposed a functional taxonomy based on the Partially Observable Markov Decision Process framework. This taxonomy categorizes systems called "world models" into three distinct projections: Renderers, Simulators, and Planners. Renderers, like OpenAI's Sora and other video generation models, focus on producing photorealistic visual outputs for human perception. They prioritize visual fidelity over physical accuracy. Simulators, such as NVIDIA Omniverse, aim to compute precise future environmental states for computational tasks like engineering analysis or digital twins. Planners, like Vision-Language-Action models, take in observations and goals to output executable actions for robots or agents. The article clarifies that most current "world models," including Sora, are primarily Renderers. They generate convincing visuals but lack the core ability to simulate state transitions based on actions, a key requirement for a true world model in classic reinforcement learning definitions. This conceptual confusion has practical implications, leading to potential misalignment in technology selection, investment, and public understanding of AI capabilities. Clear categorization is crucial. It helps enterprises avoid costly mistakes (e.g., using a renderer for robot training), allows investors to accurately assess markets, and enables researchers to build comparable benchmarks. While future systems may integrate these functions, recognizing current boundaries is essential for honest assessment and progress.

marsbit1 ч. назад

Fei-Fei Li's Team Clarifies the Concept of 'World Models', Sora Merely a Renderer

marsbit1 ч. назад

From Web3 to AI Agent: Veteran Crypto VC Variant Bets $300 Million on Pivot

Variant Fund has announced the launch of Variant 4, a new $222 million early-stage venture fund. Its investment thesis has evolved from "digital ownership" to a broader theme of "sovereignty," focusing on technologies that enhance user agency—the control individuals have over their lives, assets, and identity. The firm distinguishes between mere automation and systems that genuinely empower users, emphasizing that the key question is who ultimately benefits: the user or the platform. This new framework encompasses Variant's existing investments in areas like public blockchains (Ethereum, Solana), developer infrastructure, decentralized finance (e.g., Uniswap), and consumer applications. It also informs recent early bets on projects such as Honcho (for self-custodial AI agent memory), Octet (cryptographic verification of physical location), and here.now (an "agent cloud" for owning and composing generative content). Variant's core mission remains to back founders building technologies that expand user sovereignty, moving towards an internet where users possess unprecedented agency rather than being the product.

marsbit1 ч. назад

From Web3 to AI Agent: Veteran Crypto VC Variant Bets $300 Million on Pivot

marsbit1 ч. назад

Solana Explosive Growth Pushes Its Monthly Perps Volume Beyond Prior Records

Despite bearish market conditions and price volatility, Solana is demonstrating significant strength in its derivatives market. The network's monthly perpetual futures volume has surged to a new record, exceeding $76.7 billion in May 2026—a 34% increase from the previous high. This growth reflects heightened speculative activity and trader engagement. Analysts note that perpetual contracts are becoming crucial financial primitives, with Solana positioning itself as a network for genuine on-chain price discovery and execution. Concurrently, Solana is experiencing a massive increase in stablecoin activity, processing over $79.9 billion in stablecoin volume in one week, underscoring its role as a major hub for on-chain liquidity and transactions.

bitcoinist1 ч. назад

Solana Explosive Growth Pushes Its Monthly Perps Volume Beyond Prior Records

bitcoinist1 ч. назад

Торговля

Спот
Фьючерсы

Популярные статьи

Неделя обучения по популярным токенам (2): 2026 может стать годом приложений реального времени, сектор AI продолжает оставаться в тренде

2025 год — год институциональных инвесторов, в будущем он будет доминировать в приложениях реального времени.

1.8k просмотров всегоОпубликовано 2025.12.16Обновлено 2025.12.16

Неделя обучения по популярным токенам (2): 2026 может стать годом приложений реального времени, сектор AI продолжает оставаться в тренде

Обсуждения

Добро пожаловать в Сообщество HTX. Здесь вы сможете быть в курсе последних новостей о развитии платформы и получить доступ к профессиональной аналитической информации о рынке. Мнения пользователей о цене на AI (AI) представлены ниже.

活动图片

Топ вопросы

Популярные категорииright-arrow

Популярные тегиright-arrow