Dialogue with a Macro Analyst: AI Drains All Liquidity from U.S. Stocks, $40K Bitcoin is the True Bottom
In a recent discussion, macro strategist Luke Groman, founder of FFT LC, presented a sobering analysis of current markets. He argues that while the S&P 500 hits new highs, this is largely driven by just seven AI stocks, which are "sucking all the oxygen and liquidity out of the room." Bitcoin, which he calls the "last working smoke alarm for liquidity," is signaling trouble, having entered a difficult period.
Groman explains that the AI boom is fueled by accounting practices that front-load revenue, creating an illusion of high profits while cash is being depleted. He warns this cycle could reverse sharply when construction slows. His base case is that stocks will rise in dollar terms but fall significantly when measured in gold or Bitcoin, highlighting that long-term US Treasury futures have already lost 90% of their value against gold over the past decade.
He points to major structural risks, including China's dominance in rare earths—a small commodity market underpinning trillions in tech stock value—and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which he calls a "Suez Moment" for the US. This, combined with a shift towards a "no ticky, no washy" proof-of-work system for settling trade (using gold, not trust), signals deeper systemic distrust.
Regarding US debt, Groman notes that historically, all 58 countries that reached a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio defaulted, primarily through inflation. The US crossed this threshold in 2020. He also highlights a contradiction in the AI narrative: if it's as transformative as claimed, it must destroy white-collar jobs, threatening half of US tax revenue—a reality at odds with the "no job loss" messaging from tech leaders.
On Bitcoin, Groman sold most of his position near the top and hasn't fully re-entered. Citing technical analysis from Northstar Bad Charts, he suggests a potential bottom around $40,000 could materialize in Q3 or Q4. He concludes that while he may be labeled a doomsayer, his view is simply realistic, grounded in historical precedents and current macro pressures.
marsbit7 ч. назад
