Host: Mr. Z (@168MrZ)
Guest: Haseeb Qureshi (@hosseeb)
"In the crypto world, survival is the greatest Alpha. As long as you are still at the table, you are qualified to enjoy the feast." Dragonfly Capital Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi, from the perspective of a veteran who has experienced eight years of crypto cycles, deeply analyzed the symbiotic relationship between AI and cryptocurrency, the survival rules for navigating bear markets, and the historic transition of the industry from "wild pioneering" to "institutionalization" in the special Consensus HK edition of the East-West Capital Dialogue program "168X".
This legendary investor, who emerged from the Texas Hold'em poker table, started playing professional poker with $50 at the age of 16, ranked among the top ten in global online heads-up no-limit Texas Hold'em by the age of 19, then made a brilliant transition to Silicon Valley, working at Airbnb and Earn.com(acquired by Coinbase), and finally helming one of the most influential venture capital institutions in the crypto industry—Dragonfly Capital, with total assets under management exceeding $5 billion. Just a week ago, Dragonfly announced the completion of a $650 million fundraising for its fourth fund, counter-trend attacking in the bear market winter, once again proving its investment philosophy of "layout at the bottom".
This article is a精华摘要 (essence summary) of the 168X(@168X_Fortune) program—a top-tier dialogue platform deeply connecting Eastern wisdom and Western innovation, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as AI, blockchain, robotics, space technology, and bioengineering, exploring how technology, capital, and human wisdom will reshape the future of human civilization.
The End of an Era: When Competitors Leave the Table
The interview began with industry-shaking news.
Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani announced his resignation, leaving the crypto industry he had深耕 (deeply cultivated) for nearly a decade, turning to emerging fields such as AI, robotics, and longevity technology.
For Haseeb, this was not just news, but a personal farewell.
"Interestingly, Kyle was the first VC I met after entering the crypto world," he recalled. "We entered the industry almost simultaneously in 2017. He and I are completely different; we disagreed on almost everything. But he is my most respected competitor."
Haseeb described Kyle as "an outsider": no prestigious investment background, no halo of a famous school, no support from top institutions, "just someone who figured it out on his own, carving a path with a personal brand and extremely contrarian thinking."
"Seeing him leave, I feel a deep melancholy," Haseeb admitted. "Because it feels like the youth of our generation is ending. We entered this industry in our twenties, when everything was dreamy and futuristic. And now, this industry has grown up."
We Won Too Much: From Rebels to Rule Makers
What is the sign that the industry has "grown up"? Haseeb answered with a highly visual metaphor:
"Back then, the stablecoin market cap was only a few billion dollars; now it's $3,000 billion. The US Treasury Secretary publicly predicts that stablecoins will reach $3 trillion in ten years, accounting for 15% of the total money supply."
"We thought we were breaking the rules. But now, we are the rule makers."
"In a way, we won too much," he said with complex emotions. "It's like we are a group of climbers who worked hard to climb to the top. But now there are观光巴士 (sightseeing buses) bringing tourists directly up. Yes, we won—but watching the victory arrive in this way, there's an indescribable mixed feeling in my heart."
BlackRock has entered, JP Morgan has issued its own tokenized dollar. The decentralized utopia chased in youth was ultimately realized by Wall Street's full-scale entry.
"When we entered the crypto world, we were chasing a crazy sci-fi future. This is not the future we imagined, but it is much more successful than we imagined."
The former crypto punks got the "Mass Adoption" they wanted, just with a different script.
AI Needs Cryptocurrency: Smart Contracts Are Laws Born for Machines
When AI steals the spotlight of the global capital market, is the value narrative of the crypto industry already outdated?
Haseeb's answer is unique:
"AI is the most important technology of the 21st century, but like many technologies, it needs the配合 (cooperation) of other infrastructure. AI needs energy, AI needs the network—it is the massive data on the network that feeds large language models. Cryptocurrency is the same道理 (reason)."
He具体化 (concretized) this intersection into a core scenario: When AI Agents start conducting commercial transactions, how do they settle between themselves?
"Your Agent and my Agent don't use the same fiat currency, they are not in the same banking system. You are in Taiwan, I am in the US, how will my Agent do business with your Agent? The answer has been there from the beginning: cryptocurrency."
Haseeb further proposed a profound insight: The real users of smart contracts are not humans, but AI.
"Think about the problem of legal contracts: I don't know which jurisdiction you are in, I don't know how to sue your Agent in court. Even if we go to court, it takes months to file a case, both sides hire expensive lawyers, and then spend years going through the legal process. But AI Agents operate at speeds far faster than the human brain—courts are designed for human speed; Agents operate on a completely different time scale."
"The law is random. How will the judge rule? What will the jury say? No one knows. But smart contracts say the same thing every time, as long as you can read the code. Predictability is exactly what AI Agents need."
This means that the long-touted narrative of "smart contracts replacing the law" in the crypto industry, which has always been difficult to land in the human world, has found its most perfect application scenario in the AI Agent economy.
The Industrial Revolution Took 50 Years: Don't Think of AI Too Radically
Facing market speculation on whether "Artificial Superintelligence" (ASI) is即将降临 (imminent), Haseeb displayed the calmness特有 (characteristic) of a top VC:
"When ChatGPT launched in November 2022, many predicted we were only years away from AGI. It's been almost four years now. Is this AGI? Maybe. But if it is, it's not reflected in GDP, nor in the unemployment rate. You walk on the streets of Hong Kong, everything looks normal, no buildings are on fire, no mass unemployment."
He used the Industrial Revolution as a mirror: "The Industrial Revolution was the most significant event in human economic history. But from the commercial application of the steam engine to having a measurable impact on GDP, it took a full 50 years. Before that, all the articles writing 'the end is near' were just too early."
Haseeb emphasized that no one can accurately predict the timeline. "If 'coming soon' means within two years? Unlikely. Within ten years? Possibly. Within twenty to thirty years? Almost certain. Everything depends on the timeline."
"AI will definitely be a disruptive technology. But 'when' is a completely different question. Don't draw the trend line too radically unless you have sufficient reason to believe it is already happening."
Bear Market Survival Rule: Stay at the Table
At the end of the interview, Haseeb brought the topic back to the current market: a crypto bear market with低迷 (low) sentiment and shaken confidence.
He frankly admitted this is a difficult period: "This is very difficult for those who entered this industry because of excitement and momentum. People treat price as a report card—when the price falls, they feel they did something wrong. But if you stay long enough, you know this isn't true."
Haseeb pointed out that the market event on October 11 last year was a key turning point (turning point). On that day, US President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods on Truth Social,叠加 (coupled with) China's刚刚宣布 (just announced) rare earth export controls, global risk assets were急剧抛售 (sharply sold off). The crypto market bore the brunt—Bitcoin plummeted 13% in an hour, Ethereum fell over 16%, and a large number of altcoins were halved or even zeroed out within minutes.
"Multiple exchanges went down that day; we experienced the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history—over $19 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly closed, 1.6 million trading accounts were liquidated," Haseeb recalled. The scale of this disaster was nearly 20 times that of the 2020 COVID crash, and far exceeded the liquidation volume during the 2022 FTX collapse.
"But what was truly puzzling was what happened afterwards," Haseeb said. "If you put Bitcoin's price trend together with the Nasdaq and S&P 500—they diverged after 10/11. US stocks rebounded, but crypto did not keep up. Some fundamental change occurred in the market structure, and we still don't have a satisfactory explanation."
He believed that precisely because of the lack of a clear "why", this bear market has been particularly psychologically damaging to people.
But for the future of the crypto market, he is not that pessimistic.
"The crypto market is driven by momentum; it is autocorrelated. When momentum starts in one direction, it continues. But the reverse is also true—when the rebound momentum starts, it will continue too."
He ended with a piece of wisdom from the poker table, which is also the core belief of his eight-year crypto career:
"In the crypto world, the first lesson you learn is the importance of 'survival'.
As long as you are still at the table, you can see what happens next.
The only way you lose is by being eliminated.
As long as you are not eliminated, you have a seat.
As long as you have a seat, you can enjoy the feast."
About Dragonfly Capital
Dragonfly is one of the world's most influential crypto venture capital institutions, with total assets under management exceeding $5 billion. Co-led by Bo Feng and Haseeb Qureshi, the team spans San Francisco and Asia, with a portfolio covering dozens of iconic projects such as Polymarket, Ethena, MakerDAO, Compound, Avalanche, and NEAR Protocol. In February 2026, Dragonfly completed a $650 million fundraising for its fourth fund, focusing on stablecoins, DeFi, prediction markets, and AI Agent payment infrastructure.
About 168X
168X is a top-tier dialogue platform deeply connecting Eastern wisdom and Western innovation, dedicated to exploring how technology, capital, and human wisdom will reshape the future of human civilization. The program focuses on cutting-edge fields such as AI, blockchain, robotics, space technology, and bioengineering, engaging in dialogue with global leaders and thought builders, revealing the core dynamics of future wealth and innovation with a unique East-West dual perspective. The program is hosted by ex-banker Mr. Z.
X | YouTube | Apple Podcasts
