Indepth Research

Provide in-depth research reports and independent analysis, leveraging data, technology, and economic insights to deliver a comprehensive examination of the blockchain ecosystem, project potential, and market trends.

Ethereum Overlooked by Wall Street

Ethereum experienced a significant "fundamental vs. price divergence" in 2025. Despite achieving major technical upgrades like Pectra and Fusaka, which enhanced scalability, and seeing explosive Layer 2 growth with Base chain's success, ETH's price dropped nearly 40% from its all-time high of $4900 to around $2900. A key reason was the Dencun upgrade (EIP-4844), which drastically reduced L2 transaction costs but collapsed fee revenue and ETH burning. This ended Ethereum's deflationary "ultrasound money" narrative, turning it into a mildly inflationary asset. While L2s like Base generated substantial revenue, they were seen as both a threat to L1 value capture and a source of long-term monetary premium for ETH. Ethereum faced intense competition, losing ground in areas like PayFi and DePIN to Solana, but maintained dominance in RWA (e.g., BlackRock's $2B BUIDL fund) and stablecoins. Wall Street remained cautious, with ETH ETF inflows ($9.8B) lagging behind Bitcoin's ($21.8B) due to the exclusion of staking rewards, making it less attractive as a yield-bearing asset. Potential catalysts for a turnaround include: the approval of staking-enabled ETFs, RWA expansion, a future surge in Blob demand, improved L2 interoperability, and upcoming upgrades like Glamsterdam and Verkle Trees aimed at enhancing scalability and decentralization. Ethereum is undergoing a painful transition from a retail-friendly platform to global financial infrastructure, sacrificing short-term gains for long-term, institutional-grade scalability and security.

marsbit01/02 08:28

Ethereum Overlooked by Wall Street

marsbit01/02 08:28

The Glory, Troughs, and Turmoil of DeFi

DeFi in 2025 experienced phases of growth, volatility, and consolidation, with key metrics showing sustained expansion despite market turbulence. Total Value Locked (TVL) remained above year-start levels, though influenced by crypto asset price fluctuations. Major events like the October liquidation event, triggered by macroeconomic news, led to $19B in liquidations and a 28% TVL drop but demonstrated DeFi lending protocols like Aave and Morpho handled清算 robustly with minimal bad debt. Notable successes included Pendle, a yield-trading protocol; Ethena, with its delta-neutral stablecoin USDe and "stablecoin-as-a-service" model; and Hyperliquid, a leading perpetual futures DEX. Key thriving sectors were perpetual trading, where DEX volume hit ~18% of CEX, and stablecoins, whose market cap grew over 50% to $309B, though still dominated by Tether and Circle. The collapse of over-leveraged stablecoins like Stream Finance's xUSD highlighted risks in high-yield, under-collateralized strategies. The industry shifted focus to fundamentals, with revenue generation becoming critical—stablecoin issuers led with 76% of sector revenue. Protocols increasingly adopted buyback mechanisms (e.g., Hyperliquid, Aave) to align value with token holders, emphasizing sustainable economics over speculation.

marsbit01/02 07:11

The Glory, Troughs, and Turmoil of DeFi

marsbit01/02 07:11

Crypto Predictions 2026: CoinFund President Shares His Forecast

Christopher Perkins, President of CoinFund, outlines seven key predictions for the crypto industry in 2026. He anticipates a major surge in mergers and acquisitions, projecting deal value to reach $25 billion, driven by consolidation and cross-industry integration. Stablecoin market cap is expected to double to $600 billion, fueled by their role as a settlement layer. Perkins also forecasts a major hack exceeding $2 billion that could trigger significant policy changes. He predicts a resurgence of regulated crypto derivatives in the U.S., but no passage of a comprehensive market-structure bill due to political gridlock. Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to reach new all-time highs of $150,000 and over $5,000, respectively. Finally, he foresees an NFT revival focused on financial applications rather than digital art.

bitcoinist01/01 13:02

Crypto Predictions 2026: CoinFund President Shares His Forecast

bitcoinist01/01 13:02

IOSG: Port and New City - Two Cryptographic Worldviews of BNB Chain and Base

IOSG: Ports and New Cities – Two Crypto Worldviews of BNB Chain and Base The article compares BNB Chain and Base as two distinct models in the crypto ecosystem, using the metaphor of cities. BNB Chain is portrayed as a bustling, efficiency-driven port city, deeply integrated with Binance. It serves users primarily from emerging markets who prioritize low gas fees, fast transactions, and immediate access to new opportunities, viewing the chain as a practical tool rather than an ideological commitment. In contrast, Base is described as a new city built with Ethereum’s values, attracting developers, creators, and institutions from Western markets. Its users care deeply about decentralization, technical design, and long-term ecosystem building. Base focuses on creating a compliant, developer-friendly environment for sustainable growth. Both chains represent the vertical integration strategies of their parent exchanges, Binance and Coinbase, but they leverage different strengths. BNB Chain excels at rapidly scaling applications and converting exchange traffic into on-chain activity, while Base emphasizes trust, compliance, and gradual ecosystem development. The piece concludes that these chains are not in direct competition but serve different user needs and cultural contexts. The future will likely see a coexistence of exchange-led ecosystems (like Binance and Coinbase) and community-driven infrastructures (like Ethereum and Solana), with the real winners being projects that can navigate and thrive across both models.

marsbit01/01 09:38

IOSG: Port and New City - Two Cryptographic Worldviews of BNB Chain and Base

marsbit01/01 09:38

After Achieving Financial Freedom, I Became a Slave to Money

Despite achieving financial freedom and material success, including a 4x growth in his media production company and purchasing a Ferrari, the author feels increasingly unhappy. He reflects that his obsession with wealth accumulation and constant digital engagement has turned him into a "slave to money," leading to a loss of purpose and joy. The always-online lifestyle and addiction to social media notifications have left him in a perpetual state of anxiety, prioritizing metrics over meaningful work. To reclaim his life, he commits to three changes: prioritizing creation over consumption, dedicating focused two-hour blocks to single tasks, and digitally disconnecting after 7 PM daily. He emphasizes the importance of balance, mental rest, and reconnecting with core values, recognizing that the pursuit of wealth should not come at the cost of one’s identity and well-being.

marsbit01/01 09:31

After Achieving Financial Freedom, I Became a Slave to Money

marsbit01/01 09:31

Vitalik: Decentralization Without Losing Commerciality, A 'Symbiotic' Solution from the Perspective of Power Balance

In his article, Vitalik Buterin explores the tension between the benefits and dangers of concentrated power in three key forces: Big Business, Big Government, and Big Mob. While these forces drive progress, their unchecked growth leads to monopolies, oppression, and populist extremism. Buterin argues that the solution lies in maintaining a balance of power, both within and between these forces. Historically, natural "diseconomies of scale" and diffusion effects prevented extreme centralization. However, modern factors like rapid technological advancement, automation, and proprietary technology have intensified scale economies, threatening this balance. To counteract this, Buterin proposes strategies to enforce greater openness and diffusion. These include regulatory measures (e.g., EU’s USB-C mandate, banning non-compete agreements), adversarial interoperability (e.g., third-party clients, decentralized exchanges), and pluralistic collaboration models. He also introduces D/acc (Defensive Accelerationism) to develop open, defensive technologies that reduce security anxieties without requiring centralization. Ultimately, the goal is to empower entities to have positive impact without achieving hegemony, ensuring a decentralized, robust, and ethical global ecosystem.

marsbit01/01 07:16

Vitalik: Decentralization Without Losing Commerciality, A 'Symbiotic' Solution from the Perspective of Power Balance

marsbit01/01 07:16

Under the Curse of TGE Peaking, Which Tokens Defied the Trend and Rose?

Amid the prevailing trend of tokens peaking at their Token Generation Event (TGE) and declining thereafter in 2025, a few exceptions managed to sustain price increases post-launch. Tokens like ASTER, FOLKS, AVICI, and SENTIS demonstrated resilience, driven by genuine buying support rather than temporary spikes. Key factors contributing to their success include fair token distribution (e.g., AVICI with 0% team allocation, SENTIS with activity-based emissions), reasonable initial valuations that allowed for market re-rating, observable product usage or adoption (such as Aster’s Perp volume and Avici’s real-world spending), transparent and linear unlock schedules, and strategic exchange listings that amplified rather than dictated performance. These tokens highlight a market shift towards valuing structural integrity—healthy circulation, fair launches, and tangible utility—over mere narrative potential, emphasizing survival through sound tokenomics and adoption in an increasingly competitive landscape.

比推12/31 14:42

Under the Curse of TGE Peaking, Which Tokens Defied the Trend and Rose?

比推12/31 14:42

Vitalik May Not Realize That Ethereum's Transition to PoS Actually Buried a Financial 'Hidden Bomb'

After transitioning from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), Ethereum introduced staking rewards for ETH, creating a "maturity mismatch" arbitrage opportunity with Liquid Staking Tokens (LSTs) and Liquid Restaking Tokens (LRTs). This led to leveraged lending, recursive borrowing, and yield arbitrage on platforms like Aave, becoming a major DeFi use case—similar to traditional finance’s reliance on arbitrage. However, this arbitrage does not generate additional liquidity or value for the Ethereum ecosystem. Instead, it creates persistent selling pressure, as institutions cash out their staking rewards. This dynamic forms a delicate balance between sell pressure, ETH buy demand, and deflationary mechanisms. Unlike traditional banking, where maturity mismatch helps transform savings into productive capital (e.g., long-term loans funding economic growth), DeFi’s version is purely speculative. Institutions engage in recursive staking—staking ETH via Lido to get stETH, using it as collateral on Aave to borrow more ETH, and repeating the process—amplifying staking yields without contributing to real economic activity or dApp development. This套利套利behavior essentially exploits Ethereum’s security budget. With over 34 million ETH staked—far exceeding the estimated 15 million needed to resist state-level attacks—the network experiences "excess security." Post-Dencun upgrade, with reduced gas fees and renewed ETH inflation, the selling pressure from staking rewards structurally suppresses ETH’s price. ETH’s staking yield, currently around 2.5%, trails behind U.S. Treasury yields, making ETH a less attractive asset institutionally. The rise of Real-World Assets (RWA) on-chain could create external demand, potentially boosting ETH’s value, but for now, the PoS shift has turned ETH into a perpetual bond with negative yield spread versus Treasuries, posing a financial risk rather than fostering organic growth.

marsbit12/31 04:23

Vitalik May Not Realize That Ethereum's Transition to PoS Actually Buried a Financial 'Hidden Bomb'

marsbit12/31 04:23

Here’s The XRP Fractal That Says Price Is Headed To $27

A technical analysis by EGRAG CRYPTO suggests that XRP's price movement may follow a "White Fractal" pattern, which has so far aligned with about 82% accuracy. This model projects a potential rise to as high as $27, though it is conditional and not guaranteed. The most probable target is around $3.20, with a 75% likelihood. Higher targets include $8 (65% probability), $15–16 (55%), and finally $20–27 (50%). The analyst estimates that if the pattern holds, the peak expansion phase could occur between June and October 2026. However, a drop below $1.60 would weaken the projection, and a break below $1.30 would invalidate the model entirely.

bitcoinist12/31 02:04

Here’s The XRP Fractal That Says Price Is Headed To $27

bitcoinist12/31 02:04

What are the characteristics and commonalities of tokens that have performed well after TGE in 2025?

In 2025, most tokens experienced significant price declines shortly after their Token Generation Event (TGE), but a few—such as ASTER, FOLKS, AVICI, and SENTIS—managed to sustain price increases. These tokens shared several key characteristics that contributed to their relative success: 1. **Token Distribution Over Hype**: Successful projects avoided large internal liquidity at TGE. Examples include AVICI (0% team allocation) and SENTIS (activity-based emissions). 2. **Reasonable Valuation**: Tokens launched at fair valuations, rather than during peak hype, allowed room for market reappreciation. AVICI, for instance, launched with a low FDV despite having a functional product. 3. Demonstrable Utility: Projects like ASTER (Perp DEX volume), FOLKS (lending scale), and AVICI (real-world card spending) showed observable usage rather than just promising future utility. 4. **Controlled Unlock Structures**: Linear and transparent token unlock schedules (e.g., SENTIS’s participation-based emissions) were better received than cliff-style unlocks. 5. **Exchange Listings as Accelerators, Not Foundations**: While major exchange support helped, it wasn’t sufficient alone. Strong fundamentals determined long-term performance. The market in 2025 shifted from rewarding potential to valuing structure: healthy circulation, fair distribution, real adoption, and predictable unlocks. Tokens that prioritized these elements demonstrated resilience post-TGE.

Odaily星球日报12/31 00:47

What are the characteristics and commonalities of tokens that have performed well after TGE in 2025?

Odaily星球日报12/31 00:47

活动图片

Популярные категорииright-arrow

Популярные тегиright-arrow

Project Updates

Indepth Research