Regulatory Policy

Focuses on global regulatory developments, policy changes, and compliance requirements. It provides in-depth analysis of government regulations and their impact on the cryptocurrency and blockchain industries, helping businesses and investors proactively manage policy-related risks.

Disrupting the Billion-Dollar Gambling Industry, Prediction Markets Are Being Hunted by the Old Order

Prediction markets are facing regulatory crackdowns in the United States, particularly from state-level authorities overseeing the lucrative sports betting industry. The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC) recently issued cease-and-desist orders to platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, demanding they halt sports-related prediction contracts for state residents. The SWC alleges these platforms are offering illegal gambling services without a state license, despite being registered with the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as designated contract markets. This conflict stems from the rapid growth of both sectors. Since the federal ban on sports betting was overturned in 2018, the legal U.S. sports betting market has exploded, reaching nearly $150 billion in total bets in 2024. Tennessee, which legalized online-only sports betting, collected over $97 million in tax revenue from it in 2024. Prediction markets, which frame their offerings as "event contracts" (financial derivatives under CFTC purview) rather than gambling, have seen even more explosive growth, with trading volume surging 400% to $40 billion in 2025, with sports-related contracts being the largest category. This creates a "regulatory arbitrage," allowing prediction markets to operate without state licenses, addiction controls, or high gambling taxes, directly competing with and eroding the tax base of the traditional sports betting industry. The friction is not isolated to Tennessee; multiple other states have taken similar action. Kalshi has challenged several states in court, arguing federal regulation preempts state law, but court rulings have been mixed and the issue is expected to eventually be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. The core of the conflict is the fundamental similarity of the services offered versus their differing regulatory classifications, setting the stage for a prolonged legal battle over this grey area.

Odaily星球日报01/12 02:50

Disrupting the Billion-Dollar Gambling Industry, Prediction Markets Are Being Hunted by the Old Order

Odaily星球日报01/12 02:50

National-Level Players Enter the Game: Deciphering the Escalation and Transformation of Crypto Crime in 2025

In 2025, state-level involvement in cryptocurrency-related activities has significantly increased, marking a new phase in the maturation of illicit on-chain ecosystems. Illicit addresses received at least $154 billion, a 162% year-over-year surge, largely driven by a 694% increase in transactions involving sanctioned entities. Even excluding these, 2025 was a record year for crypto crime, with growth across most illegal categories. Stablecoins now dominate illicit transactions, accounting for 84% of the total. Nation-state threats were particularly prominent: North Korean hackers stole $2 billion, including a historic $1.5 billion attack on Bybit. Russia launched the ruble-backed A7A5 token, which saw $93.3 billion in transactions within a year, facilitating large-scale sanctions evasion. Iranian proxy networks and China-based money laundering networks also expanded their operations, offering specialized services like fraud, terror financing, and sanctions avoidance. The rise of full-stack illicit infrastructure providers has enabled both criminals and state actors to conduct malicious activities more effectively. Moreover, the connection between crypto crime and real-world violence is growing, with increased use in human trafficking and violent coercion attacks. Despite these challenges, illicit activity still represents less than 1% of all traceable cryptocurrency transaction volume. Collaboration among law enforcement, regulators, and crypto businesses remains crucial to address these evolving threats.

marsbit01/12 02:02

National-Level Players Enter the Game: Deciphering the Escalation and Transformation of Crypto Crime in 2025

marsbit01/12 02:02

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