Bitcoin

Bitcoin Futures Structure Favors Bulls as Short Liquidations Accelerate

Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $90,000 level as market structure signals suggest a tactical upside. According to analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s Regime Score has entered the +15 to +30 range, historically associated with positive returns, indicating an early recovery phase. Simultaneously, derivatives data show a dominance of short liquidations, creating mechanical buying pressure that supports upward movement. The current Regime Score of +16.3 suggests a favorable risk-reward setup, with backtested 30-day returns averaging +3.8% in this zone. While moving into a full bull regime above +30 has often led to local tops, the current neutral-positive transition and prevailing short liquidations indicate improving market structure and potential near-term gains.

bitcoinist12/23 04:02

2025 Asset Review: Why Did Bitcoin Significantly Underperform Gold and U.S. Stocks?

In 2025, Bitcoin underperformed compared to gold and U.S. equities, particularly AI-driven tech stocks like NVIDIA, due to several fundamental factors. First, the rise of generative AI created a more efficient energy-to-value conversion, diverting capital and electricity from Bitcoin mining to high-margin AI data centers. This shift prioritized productivity gains over digital scarcity. Second, gold’s atomic-level physical certainty made it a superior hedge against geopolitical instability and systemic risks, whereas Bitcoin remains reliant on digital infrastructure and liquidity channels. Third, Bitcoin ETFs institutionalized the asset, reducing its volatility and aligning it more with traditional risk models, dampening its speculative appeal amid prolonged high-interest rates. Finally, the opportunity cost of holding non-cash-flow-generating Bitcoin increased as investors chased exponential growth in AI. Bitcoin’s current phase represents a recalibration within a complex system—yielding temporarily to AI-driven productivity and defensive asset demand—rather than a long-term failure. It remains a potential long-term store of value awaiting future liquidity cycles.

比推12/23 03:33

BlackRock pins Bitcoin ETF as major theme alongside T-bills, tech stocks

cointelegraph12/23 03:02

Bitcoin’s Post-Quantum Shift Could Take A Decade, Crypto Exec Says

A debate is emerging regarding the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin and its potential market impact. While some investors, like Capriole's Charles Edwards, warn it could push Bitcoin below $50,000 by 2028 if unaddressed, developers urge caution. Bitcoin Core developer Jameson Lopp and Blockstream CEO Adam Back agree the threat is not immediate, but a migration to post-quantum cryptography could take 5-10 years due to the protocol's complexity and need for widespread coordination. The community is split; some VCs see imminent risk, while long-time advocates like Pierre Rochard question the urgency. Upgrading Bitcoin's cryptography is a massive undertaking, involving proposals like BIP 360, but enforcement and coordination remain significant challenges. The call is for funding research and building migration tools, as price concerns turn the issue from academic to practical.

bitcoinist12/23 03:01

2025 Asset Review: Why Did Bitcoin Significantly Underperform Gold and U.S. Stocks?

In 2025, Bitcoin underperformed compared to both gold and U.S. equities, particularly those driven by AI leaders like NVIDIA. This divergence stems from deeper physical and informational dynamics rather than mere price movements. A key factor is energy arbitrage and shifting computational priorities. AI's exponential growth in total factor productivity has attracted massive capital and energy investment, diverting resources away from Bitcoin mining. Electricity used for AI training now yields higher marginal economic returns than Bitcoin’s proof-of-work mechanism, leading many miners to transition to AI data centers. Gold’s strong performance reflects its atomic-level certainty amid rising geopolitical entropy. As a physical store of value, it remains viable without digital infrastructure—unlike Bitcoin, which still depends on internet connectivity and centralized liquidity channels. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a liquidity overflow asset, while gold serves as a hedge against systemic collapse. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has also diluted its volatility, integrating it into traditional portfolios and reducing its explosive potential. It now behaves more like a high-beta tech asset, sensitive to prolonged high-interest rates. Moreover, the opportunity cost of holding non-cash-flow-generating Bitcoin has risen as capital flocks to high-growth equities anticipating a productivity singularity led by AI. From a complex systems perspective, the current phase represents a recalibration. U.S. markets are in a parabolic AI-driven acceleration, while gold acts as a Cantor Set-like resilient core in a fragmenting global order. Bitcoin is caught between sell pressure from early adopters and steady institutional accumulation, leading to low volatility and price compression—a dynamic known as attractor reorganization. Bitcoin hasn’t been invalidated; it is being repriced. It temporarily yields to AI-driven growth and geopolitical safety but remains a long-term cross-cycle store of value, awaiting future liquidity expansion and shifts in technological efficiency.

marsbit12/23 02:09

Gold and Silver Have Gone Crazy: Is Bitcoin 'Lagging Behind' or Building Momentum During Christmas Week?

During the Christmas week, global markets have seen a surge in safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which hit new all-time highs amid a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields. In contrast, Bitcoin has remained stagnant, trading within a narrow range of $88,000–$89,000, failing to ride the macro tailwinds. The article questions whether Bitcoin is experiencing a "Santa Rally"—a seasonal uptrend often seen in traditional markets—or is instead consolidating for a potential move. Market analysts point to a cautious macro environment, with investors awaiting key U.S. economic data, including Q3 GDP and unemployment figures, to gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. This uncertainty has led to risk-off sentiment, with capital flowing out of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs while seeing minor inflows into altcoins like XRP and Solana. Technically, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase, with key resistance between $93,000–$95,000. A major $24 billion options expiration on Friday adds to near-term volatility, with bulls targeting $100,000 and bears defending $85,000. Analysts from CF Benchmarks and others describe the current behavior as digestion of prior gains rather than preparation for a new rally. Historical data shows mixed Christmas-week performance for Bitcoin, with an average gain of 7.9% since 2011. Overall, Bitcoin’s current stance reflects its perception as a risk asset amid broader market caution. The outcome depends less on seasonal trends and more on whether institutional capital returns at these levels. Until then, range-bound trading is likely to continue.

比推12/23 00:39

Recent Bitcoin miner capitulation may signal bottom is near: VanEck

Recent Bitcoin miner capitulation, indicated by a 4% drop in hashrate since mid-December, may signal a market bottom, according to VanEck analysts. Historically, such declines have preceded positive 90-day returns 65% of the time and even stronger 180-day gains averaging 72%. The current downturn, partly driven by China shutting down 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity, has pushed breakeven electricity costs for popular miners down 36% to $0.077/kWh. Despite challenges, around 13 nations—including Russia, France, and Japan—continue supporting Bitcoin mining. Bitcoin trades at $88,400, down nearly 30% from its October all-time high.

cointelegraph12/23 00:34

Bitcoin rejected at $90K again as gold correlation turns negative

Bitcoin faced another rejection near the $90,000 level on December 22, reinforcing the area as strong resistance amid a pattern of declining highs since early December. The short-term correlation with gold has turned negative, dropping to around -0.14, indicating Bitcoin is behaving more like a high-risk asset than a macro hedge. This shift often precedes increased volatility. Key support lies at $86K–$87K, with a break below potentially targeting $83K. A clear break above $90.5K is needed to restore bullish momentum. The market remains range-bound, balancing fading macro support and hesitant demand.

ambcrypto12/22 23:32

Bitcoin’s holiday rally: Are BTC bulls setting up a classic bear trap?

Despite a weak Q4 that erased 63% of Q2-Q3 gains, Bitcoin's market dominance remains strong near 60%, indicating underlying confidence as capital stays parked rather than rotating to altcoins. Altcoin dominance (ex-top 10) hit a five-year low at 6.73%. With thin holiday liquidity and $5.8 billion in leveraged shorts clustered near $95k, technicals suggest a potential bear trap. Oversold conditions, including an RSI of 35 and six weeks of consolidation under $90k, could fuel a short squeeze. A breakout may trigger a holiday rally, targeting $95k as near-term resistance.

ambcrypto12/22 23:05

Bitcoin Is Entering A Window For A Santa Rally, Analyst Says

Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential Santa rally, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. The market’s current “Regime Score” sits at +16.3, placing it in the upper neutral zone (+15 to +30), which historically has delivered average returns of +3.8% over 30 days. This suggests a tactical bullish setup without excessive optimism. Additionally, the derivatives market shows a skew toward short liquidations, creating mechanical upward pressure as forced buyers enter the market. However, Adler cautions that entering the formal Bull regime (above +30) has historically coincided with local tops. The current “bullish neutrality” offers a favorable window for upside, though a drop in the Regime Score below zero or a shift toward long liquidations would signal exhaustion. Bitcoin traded at $89,864 at the time of writing.

bitcoinist12/22 23:01