Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)
Recently, due to continuous hints from Polymarket's official team members regarding POLY token-related content, major airdrop farming communities have analyzed the timing and scale of a potential POLY airdrop from various angles. According to data from predict.fun, the probability of the event "Polymarket will launch its official token before the end of this year" is currently reported at 56%; there is even a 7% probability that "Polymarket will launch its official token before Q2 this year."
Furthermore, regarding market cap, the probability of the event "Polymarket's FDV exceeds $6 billion one day after launch" is currently reported at 51%; there is a 34% probability that "Polymarket's FDV exceeds $10 billion one day after launch."
Timeline of Polymarket's Official Token Hinting
October 2025: Initial Hints and Official Confirmation of the POLY Token
Signals from the Polymarket official team about the POLY token can be traced back to October last year.
On October 8, 2025, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan posted on platform X, listing POLY alongside BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, sparking community speculation about a Polymarket token launch. Although this was not an official token announcement, for the market, the founder personally writing $POLY was sensitive enough. After that, community discussion about a Polymarket token launch began to noticeably heat up.
Subsequently, the airdrop expectation was further brought into public discussion by official team members. On October 23, 2025, Polymarket Growth Lead William LeGate mentioned "prospective airdrop farmers" in a podcast or related discussion. While not an official rules clarification, this acknowledged the existence of user behavior and expectations surrounding a potential Polymarket airdrop in the market.
What further solidified the POLY token expectation was on October 24, 2025. Polymarket CMO Matthew Modabber explicitly stated in a podcast, "Polymarket will have a token, and there will be an airdrop." This statement became a key turning point for Polymarket's token expectation, shifting from community speculation to official confirmation.
After entering November, the focus of official discussions began to shift from whether there would be an airdrop to what kind of behavior would NOT qualify for an airdrop. On November 11, 2025, William LeGate explicitly stated in response to Sybil farming, "I can tell you for sure that these Sybil accounts will not get airdrop allocations. They are wasting their time."
April This Year: Major Price Tracking Platforms Launch POLY Preview Pages
Entering April this year, the POLY token expectation extended to major crypto price-tracking websites.
Currently, preview pages for Polymarket (POLY) have appeared on both CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap. While these pages do not equate to the formal token launch and do not represent an announced TGE date by Polymarket, the fact that external price-tracking platforms are reserving space for $POLY further reinforces the community's expectation for a Polymarket token launch.
May This Year: POLY Token Moves from Airdrop Expectation to Product Hinting
After entering May, discussions about the POLY token have progressed further towards specific functionalities and airdrop eligibility.
On the evening of May 4, Polymarket official team member Mustafa responded to a question about the POLY token during a community interaction. A user asked when it would be possible to stake POLY to reduce taker fees or potentially future maker fees. Mustafa replied: "Soon." The community quickly interpreted this official response as an indication that Polymarket is preparing for the token's launch.
On May 13, more clues around the POLY token emerged. Polymarket Product Lead Dustin Karp posted a photo of a workstation, saying he passed by Mustafa's desk. The photo appeared to show an internal page related to the POLY token airdrop. Upon zooming in, the community spotted an "Airdrop" label, further increasing expectations for the POLY token airdrop.
Subsequently, Polymarket Growth Lead LeGate also responded in a community discussion regarding official badges. LeGate replied that blue badges represent Polymarket employees; Traders badges are mainly for traders with cumulative profits reaching $100,000, or other high-volume users (in other tweet replies he mentioned transaction volume exceeding $10 million, adding that if users are active traders on Polymarket, profit amounts and transaction volumes could be slightly adjusted), and notable community contributors; Builders badges are for projects developing and building based on the Polymarket ecosystem.
Badges may not be the sole criterion for receiving an airdrop. The community inquired whether X content contributions would be rewarded with POLY tokens. LeGate replied that connecting an X account to a Polymarket account is only one-third of the conditions. Additionally, users should perhaps also put their Polymarket profile link in their X bio, actively share their trades, profit records, and market views on X, and engage with the community.
Although this reply did not explicitly confirm whether "jaw farming" (creating content for potential airdrops) would actually yield an airdrop, major communities are relatively optimistic and are actively posting Polymarket-related content on X to vie for potential token airdrops.
Personal Strategy
For me, having been deeply involved in prediction markets throughout the first half of this year, I still lean towards Polymarket not launching its token before the World Cup.
The reason is simple: Polymarket's more important task right now might not be launching a token immediately, but first refining the trading experience and infrastructure. Whether it's the continuous optimization of the V2 version or even changing chains, the essence is to prepare for high-traffic, high-frequency trading scenarios like the World Cup. For Polymarket, if the platform experience is unstable during the World Cup, launching a token beforehand might not effectively capture new users and trading volume.
Therefore, recent trading has primarily been hedging: placing orders for points on predict.fun, and then hedging the acquired positions on Polymarket. At the same time, I participate in various events on Polymarket with the goal of making profits. Additionally, I will bind my personal X account information on Polymarket and post Polymarket-related content on X, hoping that future token launches might allocate a portion of airdrops to "jaw-farming users."
