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Scrolling Through Crypto Twitter, But No More Profit Opportunities

The article "Scrolling Through Crypto Twitter, But No More Profit Effect" discusses the transition into the "Post-Crypto Twitter (CT)" era, where CT—as a mechanism for market discovery and capital allocation—is losing its ability to repeatedly generate significant market-wide events. CT previously functioned by compressing three key market functions into one interface: narrative discovery (creating shared focus and converting attention into common knowledge), trust routing (enabling informal reputation-based capital allocation), and reflexivity (where narratives drive prices, which in turn validate and amplify narratives). This allowed a "monoculture" to form around simple, widely understood "toys" or narratives that coordinated the entire ecosystem. However, the Post-CT era has emerged due to several failures: "toys" are industrialized and exploited faster, reducing inefficiency windows and concentrating profits; value extraction overwhelms value creation, leading to widespread cynicism; and attention has fragmented across niches, weakening shared context and synchronized liquidity flows. CT is not dead but has evolved from an engine driving market-wide coordination to an interface layer. Real capital allocation now occurs more in high-trust, private "subgraphs" (e.g., closed groups), while CT serves as a surface for signals and narratives. The author argues that the era of CT reliably coordinating the entire market around a single meta-narrative and creating broad, nonlinear returns is over, though the industry continues with shifted dynamics.

比推01/08 03:01

Scrolling Through Crypto Twitter, But No More Profit Opportunities

比推01/08 03:01

Who is Placing Counterintuitive Bets in Prediction Markets?

Who Bets Against Common Sense in Prediction Markets? This article explores the counterintuitive players who provide liquidity by betting "Yes" on seemingly improbable events on prediction markets like Polymarket. Contrary to appearing irrational, these participants are often driven by calculated strategies. Three key groups are identified: 1. **The Lottery Players:** These individuals focus on high odds, betting small amounts for a potentially large payoff. They capitalize on the small but non-zero chance of a black swan event or a market settlement error, making such high-risk, high-reward bets a rational part of a diversified strategy. 2. **Bots:** Automated trading algorithms are significant liquidity providers. They quickly engage in new markets, scooping up ultra-cheap "Yes" shares and then placing slightly higher sell orders to profit from subsequent buyers (like lottery players or other bots). Some bots also trade to generate volume, potentially aiming to qualify for future airdrops. 3. **The Prediction Platforms:** Polymarket itself incentivizes liquidity through programs like maker incentives and holding rewards (e.g., a 4% APY for holding shares in specific markets). These financial incentives make providing liquidity on unlikely outcomes attractive, as rewards can offset potential losses or enhance gains, contributing significantly to market depth and volume. The analysis concludes that those betting against the consensus are not merely "stupid" but are often rational actors employing specific strategies to profit, with the platform's own incentive structures playing a major role in fueling this activity.

Odaily星球日报01/08 02:57

Who is Placing Counterintuitive Bets in Prediction Markets?

Odaily星球日报01/08 02:57

2025 Prediction Market Review: Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion, Top Two Players Hold Over 97.5% Market Share

2025 Prediction Market Review: Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion, Duopoly Holds Over 97.5% Market Share In 2025, the prediction market sector reached a total trading volume of $50.25 billion, with Kalshi and Polymarket dominating the landscape by capturing over 97.5% of the market share. The remaining ecosystem accounted for just $1.25 billion in trading volume, involving emerging platforms like Azuro, TrendleFi, and others. Kalshi reported a record-breaking year with a nominal trading volume of $23.8 billion, marking a 1,108% year-over-year increase. December alone saw $6.38 billion in trades, setting multiple historical highs. Polymarket’s annual volume was estimated at approximately $22 billion, though data varied across sources like DefiLlama and Dune. Sports dominated Kalshi’s trading volume (85%), while Polymarket saw a more diversified distribution: sports (39%), politics (34%), and cryptocurrency (18%). Other categories like economics and tech/science also saw significant growth, with open interest expanding substantially throughout the year. Trading activity surged in the second half of 2025, driven by major events and elections. November and December were particularly strong, with combined monthly volumes for Kalshi and Polymarket nearing $10 billion and exceeding $13 billion, respectively. The top platforms by historical trading volume were Kalshi ($27.1B), Polymarket ($23.2B), Opinion ($13.1B), Limitless ($512M), and Azuro ($444M). The sector is poised for further growth in 2026, fueled by events like the U.S. midterm elections and the World Cup.

Odaily星球日报01/08 01:36

2025 Prediction Market Review: Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion, Top Two Players Hold Over 97.5% Market Share

Odaily星球日报01/08 01:36

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