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Matrixport Research: Bear Market Confirmed, the True Window for Bottom-Fishing May Not Have Arrived Yet

Matrixport Research confirms that the crypto market has entered a bear phase, with Bitcoin's recent break below a key support level signaling a confirmed downtrend. Historical cycle analysis suggests this correction aligns with typical bear market patterns in both scale and rhythm. The focus has now shifted from whether the trend has reversed to identifying the next optimal accumulation window. Key observations indicate that Bitcoin's break below its one-year moving average often marks the start of a bear market, which historically lasts about 12 months. This suggests the next bull cycle may not begin until Q4 2026, with a potential cycle low likely in Q3 2026. The report also posits that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle correlates more strongly with U.S. midterm election cycles than with halving events, citing heightened regulatory and political uncertainty as key drivers of market tops and bottoms. From a technical perspective, neither the monthly Stochastic oscillator (currently at ~39%) nor the monthly RSI (near 50) has yet reached key oversold thresholds that historically signaled major bottoms. A clear reversal confirmation—typically occurring after a break below extreme levels—has not appeared. The report concludes that the final market low has likely not been reached and emphasizes the need for patience. A sustainable recovery should be confirmed by clear signals of exhausted selling momentum, not just proximity to perceived low prices.

Matrixport02/13 08:37

Matrixport Research: Bear Market Confirmed, the True Window for Bottom-Fishing May Not Have Arrived Yet

Matrixport02/13 08:37

Crypto Continues to Expand in Asia as Thailand Clears Path for Digital Asset Derivatives

Thailand's Cabinet has approved amendments to the Derivatives Act, allowing digital assets like Bitcoin to serve as underlying instruments for regulated derivatives contracts. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will update licensing and supervision rules to enable crypto-linked futures and options on platforms such as the Thailand Futures Exchange. This move aims to enhance crypto's recognition as an investable asset class, expand investor access, and improve risk management tools. The reform aligns with Thailand's growing crypto market, valued at $3.19 billion as of August 2025, and supports plans for future crypto ETFs. The SEC will implement safeguards to address volatility and protect investors.

bitcoinist02/13 08:04

Crypto Continues to Expand in Asia as Thailand Clears Path for Digital Asset Derivatives

bitcoinist02/13 08:04

Fear is high, prices are falling, but why are companies loading up on crypto?

Amidst market fear and falling Bitcoin prices, a notable trend of corporate accumulation is occurring. While some companies sold over 10,000 BTC recently, a smaller group of confident buyers acquired significantly more. Leading the charge, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) added 27,234 BTC in 30 days—more than double the total amount sold by others. They are joined by firms like Strive Asset Management and, notably, non-tech company DDC Enterprise Limited, signaling adoption across industries. This aggressive buying contrasts with Bitcoin's 26% monthly price drop and an "Extreme Fear" market sentiment. Beyond Bitcoin, Ethereum is also gaining corporate interest, with BitMine becoming the world's largest known corporate holder of ETH. The overall theme is that long-term believers are seizing the opportunity presented by short-term fear and price weakness.

ambcrypto02/13 08:02

Fear is high, prices are falling, but why are companies loading up on crypto?

ambcrypto02/13 08:02

DOJ Charges Connecticut Man in $950,000 Crypto Investment Fraud

A 24-year-old Connecticut man, Elmin Redzepagic, has been charged with a 21-count indictment for allegedly orchestrating a crypto investment fraud scheme that resulted in approximately $950,000 in losses. According to the DOJ, Redzepagic promised investors substantial returns by trading cryptocurrency on their behalf. Instead of investing the funds, he transferred them to an offshore gambling platform, Stake.com. He faces multiple charges including wire fraud, international money laundering, and making false statements to the IRS. Redzepagic appeared in court, denied the charges, and was released on a $500,000 bond. This case emerges amid a broader increase in crypto-related fraud, with losses reaching $370.3 million in January 2026 alone.

TheNewsCrypto02/13 08:00

DOJ Charges Connecticut Man in $950,000 Crypto Investment Fraud

TheNewsCrypto02/13 08:00

Trading Moment: AI Panic Escalates Ahead of CPI, Bitcoin Grinds Bottom in Volatility, Unlikely to Repeat 'Spring Festival Rally'

Market Summary: AI Panic Deepens Ahead of CPI, Bitcoin Grinds Near Bottom, “Spring Festival Rally” Unlikely Macro markets are gripped by an AI-driven confidence crisis, shifting from “AI frenzy” to “AI panic.” This triggered a broad sell-off, erasing $1 trillion from U.S. stock market value. Major indices fell sharply, with tech giants like Apple and Amazon leading losses. The fear spread beyond software to sectors like commercial real estate and logistics, causing significant stock declines. This panic sparked a liquidity crunch, even dragging down safe-havens gold and silver. All eyes are on the upcoming U.S. CPI data for clues on the Fed's rate path. Bitcoin is struggling in a $60k-$72k range, facing heavy selling pressure above $82k. Analysts suggest a prolonged consolidation is likely without a major catalyst, with a strong structural bottom estimated between $52k-$58k. Predictions for a cycle bottom vary, with some targeting $40k-$50k by late 2026. Ethereum shows relative weakness, trading below $2,000 and its $3,500 average cost basis. Technical analysis points to potential further declines, with pessimistic targets as low as $1,006, though some see a bullish wedge pattern forming. Solana also faces pressure, with key support at $60. A broader altcoin downturn is noted, with a view that 99% may never reclaim all-time highs. Key data shows the market in "Extreme Fear" (index: 9). Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw significant outflows. Today's focus is on the U.S. January CPI release and other scheduled events like the FTX claims registration.

marsbit02/13 07:23

Trading Moment: AI Panic Escalates Ahead of CPI, Bitcoin Grinds Bottom in Volatility, Unlikely to Repeat 'Spring Festival Rally'

marsbit02/13 07:23

a16z Crypto Founder: Web3's WhatsApp Moment Has Arrived

Chris Dixon, a general partner at a16z Crypto, argues that stablecoins are ushering in Web3's "WhatsApp moment" by revolutionizing global payments, similar to how messaging apps eliminated SMS costs. These dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies processed over $12 trillion in transactions last year (excluding non-human activity), nearing Visa's volume but at a fraction of the cost. Stablecoins are making financial transactions nearly free, fast, and programmable, embedding the internet's openness into finance. While currently used mostly in crypto-native and global commerce, adoption is expanding as integration with traditional finance improves. Major companies like Stripe, Fidelity, and SpaceX are already using them to cut fees, facilitate cross-border payroll, and operate in regions with fragile banking systems. Importantly, stablecoins are reinforcing the dollar's dominance, with issuers like Circle and Tether now holding nearly $140 billion in U.S. Treasuries, potentially becoming top holders. With clear regulations, such as the proposed Clarity Act, stablecoins could form the backbone of a new, open global financial system.

marsbit02/13 07:12

a16z Crypto Founder: Web3's WhatsApp Moment Has Arrived

marsbit02/13 07:12

Is Bitcoin ‘no longer digital gold?’ Bloomberg analyst says NO!

Senior Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas defends Bitcoin as "digital gold," despite its 6% loss in 2025 compared to gold's 65% gain. He argues that judging Bitcoin's status based on one year of underperformance is absurd, noting it has outperformed gold in 10 of the years since 2012. While recent U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have weakened BTC's price, the BTC/gold ratio suggests the pullback may be nearing a key support level, similar to the 2022 bear market. Despite short-term weakness, Bitcoin's long-term performance against gold remains strong.

ambcrypto02/13 07:02

Is Bitcoin ‘no longer digital gold?’ Bloomberg analyst says NO!

ambcrypto02/13 07:02

US Banking Lobby Urges OCC To Delay Crypto Charter Applications Approval

The US's largest banking lobby, the American Bankers Association (ABA), has urged the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to delay its approval of crypto bank charter applications. The ABA cited regulatory uncertainty, the need for greater transparency in the application process, and a lack of finalized federal oversight. This follows the OCC's conditional approval of charters for several crypto firms in December, which raised concerns about blurred regulatory lines. The ABA argues the OCC should wait until Congress finalizes new rules. Additionally, the banking industry opposes granting crypto and fintech firms direct access to the Federal Reserve's payment systems, advocating for a 12-month waiting period to ensure safety and soundness standards are met.

bitcoinist02/13 07:01

US Banking Lobby Urges OCC To Delay Crypto Charter Applications Approval

bitcoinist02/13 07:01

Coinbase and Ripple CEOs Join CFTC Advisory Panel Overseeing Digital Assets

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has formed a new advisory committee focused on digital assets, appointing key industry leaders including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. The committee, established under the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act, will provide expertise on regulatory and market developments. It includes representatives from crypto exchanges, stablecoin issuers, derivatives desks, and blockchain firms. The group will meet at least four times in 2026 to address issues like compliance, risk management, market transparency, and regulatory coordination. Their input will help shape future CFTC rules and oversight approaches for digital asset markets.

TheNewsCrypto02/13 06:57