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After the Valuation Collapse: The Crypto Market Enters the 'Revenue Pricing' Era

The crypto market is shifting from speculative narratives to a focus on real revenue generation, entering an "earnings-based valuation" era. Despite industry-wide fear and declining sentiment, crypto-native protocols have generated $74.8 billion in fees since 2018, with nearly half ($31.4 billion) occurring between January 2024 and June 2025. However, valuations have collapsed as novelty premiums fade. Key trends include: - **Stablecoin dominance**: Tether and Circle now account for 34.3% of all fees, benefiting from global demand and near-zero marginal costs. - **Trading platforms surge**: Meme coin trading and perpetual exchanges (e.g., Hyperliquid, Jupiter) grew from 1% to over 15% of total revenue by 2025, driven by consumer demand for high-risk, high-reward products. - **Protocol decline**: Layer 1 and Layer 2 tokens (e.g., Solana, Arbitrum) saw price-to-fee ratios drop sharply as infrastructure matured and competition increased. The median monthly revenue per protocol fell to $13,000. - **Valuation rationalization**: The average price-to-sales ratio for crypto assets compressed from 40,400x in 2020 to 170x today, aligning with or below traditional financial infrastructure multiples (e.g., Visa at 15x P/S). Protocols like Aave (4x P/S) and Hyperliquid (7x P/S) now trade at reasonable valuations. The era of building pure infrastructure is over. Success requires business models with real revenue, clear moats (first-mover advantage, liquidity, or distribution), and tokens that offer actual economic rights and governance—not just speculative value.

比推03/06 09:10

After the Valuation Collapse: The Crypto Market Enters the 'Revenue Pricing' Era

比推03/06 09:10

Matrixport Research: Why Is the Altcoin Bull Market Absent? Supply Pressure and Token Unlocks Become Key Variables

Matrixport Research: Why the Altcoin Bull Market is Absent? Supply Pressure and Token Unlocks Emerge as Key Variables The anticipated altcoin rally has not materialized over the past year. Historically, Bitcoin's rise leads to capital overflow into altcoins, but this transmission mechanism has significantly weakened in the current cycle. Retail participation remains low, and many projects lack compelling narratives or real-world utility to drive market momentum. Persistent supply pressure is a primary constraint. Early investors continue to divest, and new token unlocks are constantly adding to the circulating supply. Since August 2024, approximately $99 billion worth of tokens have been unlocked, creating sustained selling pressure. This explains why altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin and failed to reach previous cycle highs. Despite the overall bearish sentiment, historical patterns suggest that large-scale unlocks can sometimes improve short-term liquidity and spark temporary rebounds. An upcoming $4.7 billion unlock, the third largest since August 2024, is expected next week. However, the current rebound appears to have started only about a week in advance, indicating its influence may be weaker than previous cycles. A key market indicator is the altcoin total market cap's deviation from its 90-day moving average. The market is potentially approaching an oversold zone, which could set the stage for a tactical rebound. In summary, the altcoin market faces a structural shift. Weak retail demand combined with constant supply from unlocks and investor distributions has disrupted the traditional cycle where Bitcoin's gains fuel altcoin growth. The market remains in a critical phase, characterized by cyclical trading opportunities rather than a structural bull run.

Matrixport03/06 08:55

Matrixport Research: Why Is the Altcoin Bull Market Absent? Supply Pressure and Token Unlocks Become Key Variables

Matrixport03/06 08:55

On-Chain Economy: Past, Present, and Future

On-Chain Economy: Past, Present, and Future In 2014, before "Web3" became synonymous with blockchain and crypto assets, the core vision revolved around smart contracts and their potential to enable a self-managing decentralized network. This early idea evolved into the concept of a Smart Economy, where autonomous economic coordination could flourish. Today, Web3 is rapidly growing, largely driven by decentralized finance (DeFi). Stablecoins serve as global settlement tools, and crypto assets have reshaped public understanding of money. Beneath these developments lies a fundamental improvement in financial efficiency. At the same time, AI has moved from abstract concept to daily reality. While many see AI as a productivity tool, its deeper role is that of a new financial efficiency paradigm. By increasing productivity, AI raises the value of attention even during non-working hours, making it a natural core component of the next-generation on-chain economy. The future on-chain economy will be defined by three core features: 1. Minimal human involvement: Humans act as intent providers, while AI handles analysis, execution, and feedback. 2. Complete trustlessness: Systems must be fully secure and trustless. 3. Extreme efficiency: AI will push capital utilization to unprecedented levels. Key enabling technologies include rapidly evolving AI models, intent-based AI agents, agent networks, privacy-preserving tech like ZKP and FHE, enhanced security components, and sustainable monitoring systems. The convergence of AI and blockchain will lead to an organic, self-evolving, and autonomous on-chain economy—what we call the Intelligent Sensible Economy. This is not just a faster system but a structural shift: from human-centered operations to collaboratively intelligent networks. The economy begins to exhibit life-like traits, responding to data, adapting, and self-optimizing. This transformation raises a fundamental question: as systems become self-learning and self-coordinating, are we still building an economy—or a new form of intelligent life?

marsbit03/06 08:23

On-Chain Economy: Past, Present, and Future

marsbit03/06 08:23

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