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Nvidia's Wednesday Earnings Night: The Battle That Decides the Fate of the AI Bull Market is Here

NVIDIA is set to report its quarterly earnings after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday, May 20. This event is widely seen as a crucial test for the current AI-driven bull market. The semiconductor sector is exhibiting severe technical overbought conditions, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) trading approximately 60% above its 200-day moving average—the most extreme deviation since the dot-com bubble peak of 1999/2000. Market sentiment is highly concentrated on a few AI-related stocks, raising concerns about overall market breadth. Analysts highlight a key contradiction: while fundamentals for AI and semiconductors remain strong, significant technical pressures are building. Option market activity reflects this tension. Positions are heavily skewed towards bullish calls, yet there is also notable hedging activity through put options on broad indices and sector ETFs, signaling preparation for potential downside volatility. An unusual pattern of rising stock prices alongside rising implied volatility further underscores the market's expectation for a major move. For NVIDIA specifically, the market's primary focus will be on its forward guidance for the next quarter, which is deemed more critical than the immediate earnings results. Despite a recent seven-day rally adding roughly $1.7 trillion in market cap, historical data shows NVIDIA's stock has often declined the day after its past five earnings reports. The outcome of this report is expected to have a significant ripple effect across the broader technology and semiconductor markets, given NVIDIA's pivotal role.

marsbit05/18 12:02

Nvidia's Wednesday Earnings Night: The Battle That Decides the Fate of the AI Bull Market is Here

marsbit05/18 12:02

Lock.com Enters Early Access With Isolated Signing and Post-Quantum Architecture

Quantography Labs has launched the early-access phase for Lock.com, a hardware-free cryptocurrency wallet designed with an isolated, air-gapped security architecture. The platform eliminates the need for dedicated hardware wallets by separating the private key storage and signing process from internet-connected devices. Private keys remain entirely offline on a user-owned signer, while transaction creation and broadcasting occur on a connected device. This approach aims to remove dependency on third-party hardware manufacturers and their supply chains. Additionally, Lock.com integrates post-quantum cryptographic standards, including ML-DSA and ML-KEM. The early access release seeks user feedback ahead of a full public launch.

TheNewsCrypto05/18 11:52

Lock.com Enters Early Access With Isolated Signing and Post-Quantum Architecture

TheNewsCrypto05/18 11:52

Harvard University May Have Lost $150 Million in Cryptocurrency Trading! Has Liquidated Ethereum and Significantly Reduced Bitcoin ETF Positions

Harvard University's endowment fund, managed by Harvard Management Company (HMC), recently disclosed significant reductions in its cryptocurrency holdings. According to its latest 13F filing, HMC sold its entire position in the BlackRock Ethereum Spot ETF (ETHA) and reduced its stake in the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) by 43% in Q1 2026. This marks a sharp reversal from its peak holdings of $443 million in crypto assets just two quarters prior, bringing the current value to approximately $117 million. Analysis suggests these sales likely resulted in substantial losses. Estimates indicate HMC's Bitcoin ETF trades incurred a roughly 28% loss (over $100 million), while its brief Ethereum position fell about 35% (over $30 million), totaling potential losses exceeding $150 million. The timing of HMC's trades—aggressively adding to Bitcoin near its all-time high in late 2025 and buying Ethereum just before a market downturn—has drawn criticism as potential "buying high and selling low." However, the context points to broader pressures. Harvard faced a $113 million operating deficit in FY2025 due to cuts in federal research funding and a significant tax increase on endowment income. With much of its portfolio locked in illiquid private equity and hedge funds, the highly liquid crypto ETFs presented the most straightforward assets to sell for liquidity and risk management. Furthermore, HMC's Bitcoin ETF holding had grown to 20% of its public portfolio by Q3 2025, prompting necessary rebalancing. The move contrasts with other institutions like Mubadala (increasing Bitcoin ETF holdings) and Dartmouth College (maintaining and diversifying crypto exposure). Ultimately, Harvard's actions appear driven by a confluence of fiscal stress, liquidity needs, and portfolio risk control rather than a simple market-timing strategy, highlighting how traditional institutional risk calculus applies even to volatile crypto assets.

marsbit05/18 11:50

Harvard University May Have Lost $150 Million in Cryptocurrency Trading! Has Liquidated Ethereum and Significantly Reduced Bitcoin ETF Positions

marsbit05/18 11:50

Harvard University May Have Lost $150 Million in Cryptocurrency Trading! Has Liquidated Ethereum and Significantly Reduced Bitcoin ETF Holdings

Harvard University's endowment fund, Harvard Management Company (HMC), significantly reduced its cryptocurrency holdings in Q1 2026, reportedly incurring substantial losses. According to its latest 13F filing, HMC completely sold off its position in the BlackRock Ethereum ETF (ETHA) and cut its BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) holdings by 43%, leaving a position worth approximately $117 million. This marks a sharp decline from a peak public crypto allocation of $443 million just two quarters prior. Analysis suggests these trades resulted in estimated losses exceeding $150 million, with Bitcoin positions sold at an average loss of around 28% and Ethereum positions at roughly 35%. The moves have sparked debate on whether HMC engaged in counterproductive "buy high, sell low" behavior. The article contextualizes HMC's crypto journey, beginning with its initial disclosed investment in IBIT and gold ETF GLD in Q2 2025 as an "inflation hedge." Aggressive buying in Q3 2025 made IBIT its largest single public holding at 20% of the portfolio, coinciding with Bitcoin nearing all-time highs. Subsequent trimming began in Q4 2025, with an initial foray into ETHA. Explanations for the recent drastic cuts extend beyond market timing. Harvard faces significant financial pressure, including an annual operating deficit and a major increase in endowment tax rates. With illiquid assets like private equity dominating the portfolio, the highly liquid crypto ETFs became the most practical source for necessary portfolio rebalancing and liquidity. Furthermore, the impending retirement of HMC's CEO adds a layer of reputational risk to holding volatile assets. The article contrasts Harvard's retreat with other institutions, such as Mubadala's continued accumulation of Bitcoin ETFs and Dartmouth's expansion into staking-oriented crypto products. It concludes that HMC's actions reflect a complex interplay of fiscal needs, risk management, and institutional constraints rather than simple speculative trading, highlighting how traditional finance logic applies to crypto within large endowment portfolios.

链捕手05/18 11:44

Harvard University May Have Lost $150 Million in Cryptocurrency Trading! Has Liquidated Ethereum and Significantly Reduced Bitcoin ETF Holdings

链捕手05/18 11:44

WSJ: Unveiling the Secret Jury That Controls Disputes on Polymarket

Last month, Garrick Wilhelm lost a $567 bet on the Polymarket prediction platform about whether a ceasefire would be reached with Hezbollah. When a truce was announced, some traders argued it counted, but Wilhelm disagreed. The dispute was settled not by Polymarket, but by a decentralized group of UMA token holders who vote on such disagreements. As trading surges, resolving ambiguous outcomes is a growing challenge for prediction markets. Unlike competitors like Kalshi that decide internally, Polymarket outsources dispute resolution to UMA. Its token holders, mostly anonymous and with voting power weighted by holdings, arbitrate cases. Critics argue this system is prone to manipulation, as voters can also bet on the same markets they judge. A Wall Street Journal analysis found that over the past year, at least 60% of active UMA voters had corresponding Polymarket accounts and held positions in disputes they voted on. Voting power is also concentrated among a few large holders. Polymarket says only 0.2% of bets go to UMA and that the system disperses authority. Its founder has acknowledged flaws and promised fixes. UMA's backers deny any proven manipulation, dismissing critics as sore losers. The platform penalizes voters in the minority to incentivize "correct" outcomes. Disputes are rising, covering topics from a streamer's pregnancy announcement to Iran. This model also helps Polymarket argue it's an offshore platform outside U.S. regulation, a shift made after a 2022 settlement with the CFTC. Some losing traders have formed groups to protest, targeting entities like UMA.rocks, which aggregates votes. Its founder says traders often blame UMA for their own mistakes. A recently ousted committee member, Scout, admitted to both betting and voting but argued involved voters research more thoroughly. He highlighted the dilemma: "Either you have conflicted traders deciding, or you have uninformed outsiders voting. There is no perfect answer right now."

marsbit05/18 11:07

WSJ: Unveiling the Secret Jury That Controls Disputes on Polymarket

marsbit05/18 11:07

Bitcoin Social Euphoria Hits Yearly High Amid CLARITY Act Buzz

Bitcoin social sentiment has surged to a yearly high following the U.S. Senate Banking Committee's bipartisan approval of the CLARITY Act. Data from Santiment shows a ratio of 1.55 bullish comments for every 1 bearish comment, indicating a "FOMO zone" similar to a peak in late April. Analysts note such high optimism often signals a short-term profit-taking opportunity, contrasting with the better contrarian buy signal seen during recent "FUD zone" pessimism. Despite near-term caution, the CLARITY Act is viewed as a long-term positive, aiming to establish a clearer federal regulatory framework for digital assets by defining roles for the SEC and CFTC. The bill, supported by major crypto firms, now awaits a full Senate vote, with a critical window for passage before the August recess.

bitcoinist05/18 11:02

Bitcoin Social Euphoria Hits Yearly High Amid CLARITY Act Buzz

bitcoinist05/18 11:02

China's AI Circle Has Just Established a Pecking Order, and Capital Is Already Changing the Rules Again

The article describes how the valuation logic for major Chinese AI model companies has undergone three dramatic shifts between 2022 and 2026, driven by capital's changing priorities. The first phase (around 2022) was **technology-driven valuation**, where funding was based on model performance and benchmark scores. This logic was disrupted when DeepSeek's R1 model demonstrated that comparable capabilities could be achieved at a fraction of the cost, challenging the notion of technical superiority as an unassailable moat. The second phase shifted to **IPO window-driven valuation**. Following favorable listing conditions in Hong Kong, capital flowed to companies like Zhipu and MiniMax with the clearest path to a public listing. However, this focus on liquidity over fundamentals became apparent as their Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) lagged far behind international peers like Anthropic. The third and current phase is **national strategy-driven valuation**. This shift was marked by the state-backed "Big Fund" leading a major investment in DeepSeek, signaling that leading domestic AI models are now viewed as strategic national assets comparable to semiconductor manufacturing. This new logic, combined with soaring US valuation benchmarks (e.g., OpenAI at $850B), propelled the combined valuation of China's top AI firms ("The Four Dragons"/"Five Strong") past 1 trillion RMB. The article presents a "pricing leap model": each shift is triggered by a key event that invalidates the old logic, leading to rapid capital reallocation under a new narrative before its flaws (particularly the gap in fundamental ARR metrics) become evident. It concludes that the next major test for these valuations will be a return to scrutinizing core business fundamentals, specifically ARR growth, suggesting a fourth pricing shift is imminent.

marsbit05/18 10:42

China's AI Circle Has Just Established a Pecking Order, and Capital Is Already Changing the Rules Again

marsbit05/18 10:42

'Stock God' Trump's 3,642 Trades Disclosed: The 'Perfect Closed Loop' of Policy and Portfolio

Summary: Donald Trump's First Quarter stock trades, totaling 3,642 transactions, have been disclosed. While the White House maintains the trades were managed by an advisor and complied with disclosure laws, they reveal a portfolio heavily aligned with his policy agenda. The trades show a rotation away from major tech stocks like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, and into semiconductor and AI hardware companies such as NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Dell, and Intel. Notably, Trump's account purchased Dell stock before he publicly praised the company, after which its stock rose. The Dell family also pledged funds to a Trump-affiliated policy project. A critical case is Intel. The Trump administration converted $8.9 billion in CHIPS Act subsidies into a 9.9% equity stake, making the U.S. government Intel's largest shareholder. Months later, Trump's personal account also bought Intel stock. This intertwines national industrial policy with potential personal financial interest. Unlike typical insider trading concerns, this situation creates a "closed loop": policy decisions (e.g., subsidies, tariffs, crypto regulation) can boost the value of his holdings, and those holdings may, in turn, influence future policy directions. This blending of presidential power and personal portfolio, while legally disclosed, raises profound questions about conflicts of interest that current rules do not address.

marsbit05/18 10:26

'Stock God' Trump's 3,642 Trades Disclosed: The 'Perfect Closed Loop' of Policy and Portfolio

marsbit05/18 10:26

Dialogue with Figure Robotics Founder: Behind the $39 Billion Valuation Lies Ambition to Mass-Produce Millions of Units

Title: Figure's Founder on the $39B Valuation and the Ambition to Mass Produce a Million Humanoid Robots In a Sourcery podcast interview, Figure founder and CEO Brett Adcock discusses the rapid rise of his humanoid robotics company. With a valuation that surged 15x in 18 months to $39 billion, Figure aims to create general-purpose humanoid robots for work in factories and homes. Adcock states that the company's primary goal is to make robots that perform real, paid work autonomously. He shares Figure's aggressive scaling plan: producing thousands of robots this year, with an ultimate ambition to reach one million units annually. Adcock explains Figure's vertically integrated strategy, designing its own motors, sensors, and joints to control its supply chain and destiny. He details the challenges, including achieving long-term, reliable, end-to-end autonomous operation—a feat no one has yet accomplished. The biggest risk is executing this complex vision at scale, but Adcock believes the potential market is enormous, representing a significant portion of global GDP. The interview also covers his departure from OpenAI, citing that Figure's internal AI team eventually surpassed OpenAI's capabilities for robotics applications. Adcock concludes by highlighting his focus for the year: large-scale commercial deployment of robots and advancing toward a "general robot" capable of any human task, potentially seeing the first signs of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) in the physical world at Figure.

marsbit05/18 10:26

Dialogue with Figure Robotics Founder: Behind the $39 Billion Valuation Lies Ambition to Mass-Produce Millions of Units

marsbit05/18 10:26

As the Market Prepares for the Next Expansion Phase, Ozak AI’s $7M+ Presale Is Strengthening Its Long-Term Story

The article reports that AI-powered crypto project Ozak AI has surpassed a $7 million milestone in its OZ token presale, coinciding with a market preparing for expansion. It highlights both short and long-term projections for the token, with potential ROIs of 71x at listing and up to 500x thereafter. The piece details the deployment of core technologies like the x402 Protocol and DePIN to enhance ecosystem efficiency and data security. It also notes strategic alliances, such as with Phala Network, that are strengthening the project's foundation for sustainable growth. The conclusion emphasizes Ozak AI's focus on a long-term trajectory, bolstered by presale performance, technological implementation, and key partnerships.

TheNewsCrypto05/18 10:20

As the Market Prepares for the Next Expansion Phase, Ozak AI’s $7M+ Presale Is Strengthening Its Long-Term Story

TheNewsCrypto05/18 10:20

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