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Retail Investors Are Leaving, What Will Drive the Next Bull Market?

A significant market correction has seen Bitcoin drop 28.57% from $126,000 to $90,000, causing panic, liquidity drying up, and widespread deleveraging. However, structural positives are emerging: the U.S. SEC plans an "Innovation Exemption" in January 2026 to ease compliance, and the Federal Reserve is expected to end quantitative tightening and begin rate cuts, potentially boosting risk assets. The previous retail and leverage-driven bull cycle is unlikely to repeat. While over 200 companies hold $115 billion in crypto via Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) strategies, this represents less than 5% of the crypto market and is insufficient to fuel the next bull run. Instead, three key institutional pipelines are being established: 1. **Institutional Entry via ETFs and Infrastructure**: Global Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs provide a standardized investment channel. Improved custody and settlement solutions (e.g., from BNY Mellon, Anchorage Digital) enable efficient capital deployment. Pension funds and sovereign wealth funds may soon allocate 1-3% to crypto, potentially moving trillions of dollars. 2. **Real World Assets (RWA) Tokenization**: Tokenizing traditional assets (bonds, real estate) onto blockchains could grow the RWA market from $309 billion today to $4-30 trillion by 2030. Protocols like MakerDAO using U.S. Treasuries as collateral bridge DeFi with traditional finance, offering stable yields and reducing volatility. 3. **Infrastructure Upgrades**: Layer 2 solutions reduce transaction costs and times, crucial for institutional scale. Stablecoins, with a $1.66 trillion market cap and $4 trillion in on-chain volume, have become pillars for cross-border payments and liquidity, especially as regulators mandate full reserve backing. Short-term, Fed policy and SEC rules may drive a speculative rebound in early 2026. Medium-term, gradual institutional capital will provide stability. Long-term, RWA integration could structurally anchor crypto to global finance, enabling sustainable, trillion-dollar growth. The market's evolution from speculation to infrastructure marks its path to maturity.

marsbit12/09 19:39

Retail Investors Are Leaving, What Will Drive the Next Bull Market?

marsbit12/09 19:39

Behind Cryptocurrency 'Thefts and Scams': Why Does Civil Relief Frequently Encounter Obstacles?

Behind the surge in cryptocurrency "thefts and scams", why does civil relief frequently hit roadblocks? This article explores the legal challenges through two representative cases. In Case 1, a company paid 800,000 USDT to a Chinese employee of an overseas exchange for a listing service, only to have the employee disappear. Despite cross-border complexities and initial police refusal to accept the report (citing the company’s foreign status and claims that crypto "is not protected by law"), lawyers eventually secured case acceptance by invoking criminal procedure rules and citing regulatory recognition of virtual assets as property. However, formal立案 (case filing) is still pending. Case 2 involved a woman scammed into transferring over RMB 3 million to a USDT exchanger for a fake investment. While police quickly arrested the exchanger, the main scammer remained abroad. The exchanger was released due to lack of criminal intent, and a civil lawsuit against them for unjust enrichment was rejected at filing. The judge indicated that even if accepted, such cases rarely succeed. The analysis highlights key obstacles: the "criminal procedure takes precedence" principle often blocks civil suits until criminal proceedings conclude; if a criminal judgment orders restitution, further civil claims are barred; and bypassing criminal reporting to file civilly usually results in the case being referred back to police, wasting time. Ultimately, when crypto crimes are involved, civil relief is extremely difficult. The more viable path remains criminal prosecution, despite its own challenges, as civil victories are exceptionally rare in practice.

marsbit12/09 19:39

Behind Cryptocurrency 'Thefts and Scams': Why Does Civil Relief Frequently Encounter Obstacles?

marsbit12/09 19:39

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