Key Takeaways
Will the recovery extend to December?
It depends on how the macro front evolves, especially ahead of the Fed rate decision.
How is the market positioned?
Options flow suggested bullish positioning toward $90k-$100k, but elevated put skew signaled underlying caution.
After heavy losses in November, Bitcoin bulls are closely watching for signs of seller exhaustion and perhaps a possible Santa rally in December.
Earlier this month, renowned Polish analyst Robert Ruszale was one of the ‘Santa rally’ bulls.
He expected a bounce off the 50-Weekly Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a setup he believed would extend into December.
However, the bull market support was cracked, and the correction reached as low as $80k last week. Ruszale apologized for his failed projection.
At press time, however, BTC traded back above $85k ahead of the Fed rate decision.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView
Will recovery extend into December?
On the Options market, Deribit Insights noted that a key fund or miner that was active during the correction period has gone “quiet.”
These mega players were actively selling call options and buying puts (bearish positioning) over the past few weeks to “protect their AUM.”
Going quiet meant they somewhat expected a relief, hence no need to actively hedge against further downside. However, Deribit warned that there was still short-term caution with overall heavy put buying.
“Put Skew is consequently elevated with Put buying and (at best) pressure on Calls, often funding the downside.”
Source: Deribit
That said, the top Options volumes in the past 24 hours were bulls (green) eyeing $100k and $90k, with covering (hedging, red bars) for $84k and $70k.
Source: Arkham
For Amberdata, however, BTC’s sluggish performance was due to U.S. tech weakness. Amberdata’s Greg Magadini added,
“Note, the US tech weakness, however, can be a result of a global credit crunch (Japan raising interest rates). Therefore: Credit → US Tech AI → Crypto.”
According to Magadini, the tech weakness may have been triggered by concerns about Japan’s rising bond yield and the potential for another carry trade unwind scenario.
However, he downplayed such an outcome,
“Short-term rates matter most for ‘carry’ traders, and the JPY overnight rate is pinned down, while the USD Fed Funds December 10th FOMC rate cut is merely a coin-flip probability of happening.”
He added,
“Debt load is so high in Japan that they’re not likely to raise the short-term rates.”
If so, perhaps the macro front could turn positive for risk assets and aid BTC recovery towards $90k or $100k.
