Key Takeaways
What’s driving the recent crypto rally?
A $440 billion stimulus, Fed rate cuts, and controlled inflation have fueled bullish short-term positioning, pushing crypto market cap.
Are there risks ahead for investors?
Rising inflation, mounting U.S. debt, and insufficient tariff revenue could trigger a 2022-style pullback into 2026.
The U.S. economy is starting to look like it’s getting back on its feet.
After nearly 40 days, the government shutdown is finally getting lifted. And, right on cue, this came shortly after President Trump posted about a $2,000 “tariff dividend” for Americans, excluding higher-income brackets.
From there, the crypto market didn’t wait around.
It ripped almost 40%, pushing total market cap to roughly $3.57 trillion. But the bigger question is what this means going forward. Is stimulus really the core engine driving crypto’s momentum into late 2025 and 2026?
Capital flows surge as stimulus boosts risk assets
Short-term crypto investor positioning has turned solidly bullish.
From a macro perspective, this move isn’t random. The stimulus check lands in a relatively stable spot, supported by “softer-than-expected” data, such as inflation remaining under control despite ongoing tariffs.
Add in the Fed’s easing cycle, with two rate cuts already in place, and the liquidity backdrop becomes even more supportive for risk assets. Bottom line, crypto investors are pricing in that the stimulus will fuel capital flows.
Source: X (Kobeissi Letter)
From a technical angle, analysts see a $440 billion stimulus on the horizon.
Based on the chart above, there are roughly 220 million U.S. adults who meet the income criteria, with the top 15% excluded as “high income”. That works out to roughly 220 million × $2,000, or $440 billion in payouts.
Against this backdrop, crypto enthusiasts were quick to draw parallels with the 2020 COVID stimulus cycle and the 2021 bull run. That said, analysts still advise caution. So, is the long-term crypto positioning still in limbo?
Crypto bulls face headwinds from stimulus and debt
The 2020 stimulus cycle later played out during the 2022 bear market.
For context, back in 2020, the U.S. government rolled out three rounds of stimulus checks to boost liquidity, totaling over $814 billion.
The result? These payouts fueled a bullish rally, pushing the crypto market up 180%+.
That said, as noted by the Kobeissi Letter, the influx of liquidity also sparked a massive inflation cycle, sending the U.S. inflation index to 9% by June 2022, which in turn triggered the crypto market’s 70% annual drop.
Source: X (Kobeissi Letter)
In short, the long-term impact of the stimulus could be bearish for crypto.
That said, the question is, will the tariffs offset some of this pressure?
In August 2025, the U.S. collected $30 billion in tariff revenue. Still, the deficit that month was $345 billion, so tariffs covered just 10% of the shortfall.
Add in $37 trillion in U.S. debt, and a stimulus of this size could add more strain. Hence, short-term positioning looks bullish, but rising inflation and mounting debt could spark a 2022-style crypto pullback heading into 2026.
