BTC supply keeps draining off exchanges
Even with Bitcoin down 14% from early October highs, supply on exchanges keeps falling, and that’s a bullish sign.
Santiment data shows 208,980 fewer BTC sitting on exchanges compared to six months ago, equal to about 1.08% less circulating supply available to sell.
Source: Santiment
When coins don’t move to exchanges, it usually means holders are not preparing to dump… they’re holding. This is why the drawdown looks less panicky than past corrections.
Bitcoin is dropping in price, yes. But the market is behaving like it wants to wait.
An inverted repeat of 2022
Source: Joao Wedson/X
Joao Wedson, CEO, Alphractal, noted in an X (formerly Twitter) post that the current structure looks like a flipped reflection of the late-2022 accumulation base.
Back then, BTC drifted sideways between $15k-$18k before a breakout. Now, that same sideways bend is similar, but this time at $105k-$110k.
Source: Joao Wedson/X
If history rhymes in reverse, this fractal implies BTC could retest the mid-$100k range before choosing direction. It fits the narrative so far: markets are not euphoric, but structurally they’re not broken either.
Price is simply coiling in a familiar shape, just at a much higher altitude.
Near-term momentum is still weak
The daily chart showed price sliding to $104.5K, at press time, with back-to-back red candles, confirming sellers were still in control.
Source: TradingView
The RSI shows that Bitcoin isn’t oversold yet, but it’s approaching that level—indicating fading strength. At the same time, the MACD remains below the signal line, with expanding red bars, confirming that bearish momentum continues.
From a structural standpoint, this leaves BTC vulnerable to a quick retest of the key psychological zone between $102K and $103K, unless buyers step in soon.
While the broader bullish fractal may still unfold over the long term, the short-term outlook remains weak. For now, the bulls must focus on defending lower support levels before any recovery can take shape.
