# Volatility Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Volatility", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Has Bitcoin's 'Rebound Ended', Officially Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?

**Title: Has Bitcoin's Rebound Ended, Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?** **Summary:** Bitcoin's price has declined by 13% this week, signaling a potential return to late-stage bear market conditions. The price fell to around $67k, positioned between the Realized Price and Realized Cap Weighted Average. For the first time since early 2022, the Short-Term Holder cost basis has dropped below this key average, confirming a hallmark of late-cycle bear markets. Profitability metrics have collapsed sharply. The 7-day average of the Realized Profit/Loss ratio plummeted from a local high of 3.16 to 0.29, mirroring the February panic sell-off. Critically, the 90-day average never breached the threshold of 2, indicating the recent rally to $82k was a bear market bounce, not a structural shift. Realized losses surged to $1.35 billion daily, with $770 million coming from Long-Term Holders selling at a loss. This accelerating redistribution of supply from weak to strong hands is a necessary but ongoing process for a market bottom. The rally stalled almost precisely at the aggregate cost basis (~$83k) of US spot Bitcoin ETF investors, turning that level into strong resistance and leaving the average ETF holder underwater again. Spot market flows have turned decisively negative, showing sellers are dominating order books despite the price drop. While a significant futures long liquidation event cleared over $400 million in leverage, providing a potential reset, sustained spot demand is yet to materialize. Options markets continue to price in higher future volatility (Implied Volatility) than recent price action (Realized Volatility) has shown, with a persistent skew towards put options, indicating ongoing demand for downside protection. In conclusion, multiple metrics point to a fragile market structure. Resistance at the ETF cost basis, accelerating realized losses, dominant spot selling, and cautious options pricing all suggest the bear market trend persists. A sustainable recovery likely requires a resurgence of spot demand, ETF holders returning to profit, and a clear reduction in selling pressure.

marsbit06/05 11:07

Has Bitcoin's 'Rebound Ended', Officially Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?

marsbit06/05 11:07

Bitcoin's 'Rally Ends,' Officially Entering the Later Stage of a Bear Market?

Bitcoin prices declined 13% this week, reversing the recent rebound and signaling a likely transition into the later stages of a bear market. Key on-chain metrics deteriorated, with the short-term holder cost basis falling below the Realized Price—a pattern last seen in early 2022, characteristic of bear market maturity. The rally to ~$82k proved to be a bear market bounce, as evidenced by the 90-day realized profit/loss ratio failing to sustain above the bullish threshold of 2. Daily realized losses surged to $1.35B, including significant selling from long-term holders who accumulated near cycle tops, indicating ongoing supply redistribution. Price was rejected almost precisely at the aggregate US spot ETF cost basis of ~$83k, turning that level into resistance and leaving the average ETF investor underwater again. Spot market selling pressure intensified, with the 7-day volume delta turning significantly negative to its weakest level since February. While a major long liquidation event cleared over $400M in leverage, spot demand has not yet stepped in to absorb the resulting supply. Options markets continue pricing in higher future volatility (elevated volatility risk premium) and maintain a skew toward put options, reflecting persistent demand for downside protection, though not yet panic. Overall, market structure remains fragile. Sustained recovery likely requires a reclaim of the ETF cost basis, a shift back to positive spot demand, and a slowdown in realized loss-taking. Until then, the market risks further downside or extended consolidation within the broader bear trend.

Foresight News06/05 08:33

Bitcoin's 'Rally Ends,' Officially Entering the Later Stage of a Bear Market?

Foresight News06/05 08:33

Trump's 'Bitcoin Retirement Plan' Hits Roadblock: Democrats Claim It Endangers American Workers' Pensions?

Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), along with Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA), are urging the Labor Department to repeal a proposed rule that would open U.S. retirement savings accounts, like 401(k) plans, to investments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In a letter to Acting Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling, they argue the rule would endanger workers' financial futures and contradicts long-standing legal precedents under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA). The rule, stemming from a Trump executive order, would shift the legal standard for plan fiduciaries. Instead of requiring them to prove they conducted due diligence on volatile assets, it would presume prudence if they followed a specified process. The lawmakers warn this exposes the $14.2 trillion in 401(k) savings to highly volatile and less-regulated assets, citing FINRA warnings on crypto's risks and FBI data on massive crypto scam losses. The letter also alleges a conflict of interest, noting that President Trump's adult children manage the family's crypto business, which has raised billions. They claim the rule could allow the Trump family to profit at the expense of workers and retirees. Consumer advocates echo concerns that it could turn retirement savings into a lifeline for a risky industry. The Trump administration defends the rule as expanding worker choice, with officials stating it ends the department "picking winners and losers" and requires fiduciaries to follow a prudent process.

foresightnews_api06/05 04:11

Trump's 'Bitcoin Retirement Plan' Hits Roadblock: Democrats Claim It Endangers American Workers' Pensions?

foresightnews_api06/05 04:11

The Bitcoin Roadmap To $500,000: Analyst Shows How Price Will Get There

An analyst projects Bitcoin could reach $500,000 based on technical chart analysis, mapping out a multi-phase roadmap within a long-term ascending channel. The analyst, Crypto Tice, states Bitcoin has completed the first phase ("First touch") of the pattern and is entering a second phase that could trigger its strongest rally yet, potentially driving a more than 693% increase from current levels above $63,000. This would be followed by a final pullback. This outlook comes as Bitcoin faces significant selling pressure, having fallen 17% over three days to around $61,300, erasing roughly $250 billion in market cap. The downturn has also impacted other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum. Despite the crypto market decline, U.S. equities remain near highs, creating a notable divergence that some suggest could indicate market manipulation or crypto front-running a potential stock market correction.

bitcoinist06/05 00:44

The Bitcoin Roadmap To $500,000: Analyst Shows How Price Will Get There

bitcoinist06/05 00:44

What To Expect For The Bitcoin Price By EOY 2026

A crypto analyst, Aralez, provides predictions for Bitcoin's price through the end of 2026. For the remaining Q2 2024, a bearish outlook is forecasted, with Bitcoin potentially dropping to around $58,000. The third quarter is expected to see Bitcoin enter a capitulation phase, followed by whale accumulation and a potential price bottom as the Federal Reserve eases interest rates. The final leg of the year is predicted to bring a major bullish surge, with Bitcoin potentially rising over 30% and targeting $100,000 by the end of 2026, driven by factors like the AI narrative and increased crypto market liquidity.

bitcoinist06/04 15:31

What To Expect For The Bitcoin Price By EOY 2026

bitcoinist06/04 15:31

Bitcoin Eyeing $60,000 Support As Iran Strikes Hammer Crypto Markets

Bitcoin faces crucial support at $60,000 following a market sell-off triggered by escalating Middle East tensions. The cryptocurrency fell 4.5% to an intraday low of $65,700, pressured by a record $1.44 billion in weekly outflows from US spot Bitcoin funds—the highest of 2026. Geopolitical events, including new US attacks on Iranian targets and reports of missile strikes in Bahrain, have fueled risk aversion, impacting oil prices and inflation fears. Technical analysis indicates Bitcoin has breached key support levels, with a close below $65,000 potentially opening a path toward the $60,000 mark. The conflict has also disrupted diplomatic ceasefire talks between the US and Iran.

bitcoinist06/04 09:01

Bitcoin Eyeing $60,000 Support As Iran Strikes Hammer Crypto Markets

bitcoinist06/04 09:01

STRC Breaks Below $95: Why Does It Continue to Depeg? Is There Default Risk?

"STRC Falls Below $95: Why the Persistent Depegging and Is There Default Risk?" The article discusses the recent decline in the price of STRC, a perpetual preferred stock issued by Strategy (MSTR) designed to trade around a $100 par value. As of publication, STRC traded at $94.65, raising market concerns. STRC is described as a high-yield cash flow product, offering an 11.50% annual dividend paid monthly. Its "preferred" status grants it priority over common stock for dividends and in liquidation. Key reasons cited for the price depegging include: 1. **Bitcoin's Price Drop:** MSTR's assets are heavily tied to Bitcoin (BTC), which fell over 21% from its recent high, pressuring all Strategy-related products. 2. **Competitive Pressure:** Rival Strive Asset Management's similar product, SATA, offers daily dividends and has maintained its $100 par value with a ~13% yield. In response, Strategy has proposed changing STRC's dividend frequency from monthly to bi-weekly, pending shareholder vote. 3. **Technical Selling:** A break below $100 may have triggered algorithmic selling and stop-losses, exacerbating the decline. Regarding default risk, the analysis suggests it is currently low. Strategy founder Michael Saylor confirmed the June 2026 dividend rate remains at 11.50% with no cuts or suspensions. The company's massive reserve of 843,706 BTC provides a significant backstop for its obligations. Industry opinions are mixed. Some analysts view the BTC holdings as reliable support for dividends, while critics like Peter Schiff warn of potential dividend cuts leading to price crashes and lawsuits. Others highlight inflation risk and the company's ability to reduce dividends without a formal default. In summary, STRC's drop is attributed to BTC volatility, competition, and technical factors. While immediate default risk appears contained, the product faces challenges from market conditions and competitive dynamics.

marsbit06/04 08:13

STRC Breaks Below $95: Why Does It Continue to Depeg? Is There Default Risk?

marsbit06/04 08:13

Broadcom's Q3 Guidance Misses Expectations by $12 Billion, After-Hours Trading Plummets Over 13%, AI Narrative "Cooling"?

On June 3, Broadcom released record Q2 FY26 results with revenue of $22.19B, up 48% YoY, and AI chip sales of $10.8B, up 143%. Adjusted EPS of $2.44 beat estimates. However, its Q3 AI semiconductor revenue guidance of $16B, while up over 200% YoY, fell roughly $1.2B (7%) short of analyst consensus expectations of $17.2B. This miss, coupled with slightly weaker-than-expected software revenue, triggered a severe market reaction. CEO Hock Tan maintained the FY26 AI revenue outlook of over $100B but did not raise it, disappointing investors who had priced in more robust growth. The stock plummeted over 13% in after-hours trading, erasing roughly $270B in market cap. The sell-off extended to peers like Marvell. A key concern for markets, particularly for Chinese optical module suppliers, was Tan's comment that the contribution of AI networking (e.g., Ethernet switches, optical interconnect chips) to AI revenue, currently near 40%, is expected to normalize to around 30% over time, signaling a potential peak in growth for that segment. Despite the guidance shortfall, Tan reiterated that AI demand remains "insatiable" and reaffirmed the long-term target of exceeding $100B in AI revenue by FY27. The reaction highlights the heightened sensitivity and premium valuation placed on AI-exposed stocks, where anything less than stellar guidance can prompt significant profit-taking. The broader question is whether this represents a cooling AI narrative or a correction in overstretched valuations.

marsbit06/04 04:47

Broadcom's Q3 Guidance Misses Expectations by $12 Billion, After-Hours Trading Plummets Over 13%, AI Narrative "Cooling"?

marsbit06/04 04:47

Analyst Who Predicted The Bitcoin Crash from $82,000 Reveals What’s Next

A crypto analyst known as Tony, who previously predicted Bitcoin's drop from around $82,000, shares his outlook for the leading cryptocurrency. He asserts that Bitcoin is currently in a bear cycle and is likely to decline further, potentially setting new lows this year. Tony points to technical factors like the 200-day moving average and Fibonacci levels as resistance. He outlines a potential scenario where Bitcoin could see a fake breakout above $85,000 to trap retail traders before falling to new lows. His chart analysis suggests possible declines to around $50,000 by July, with a cycle bottom potentially below $40,000. Tony notes that while short-term bounces, possibly from the $67,000 region, could occur, the main trend remains downward. Another analyst, Colin, suggests the $65,000-$66,000 range might offer short-term support for a bounce but reiterates that a retest of $60,000 and lower is still likely, as Bitcoin has not yet seen the typical >70% decline from its peak observed in past bear cycles. Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,300.

bitcoinist06/03 19:17

Analyst Who Predicted The Bitcoin Crash from $82,000 Reveals What’s Next

bitcoinist06/03 19:17

The Rally That Wasn't

The article analyzes Bitcoin's sharp decline amid a shift in macroeconomic expectations, with strong US job data leading markets to price out Fed rate cuts. Bitcoin fell 13% to around $67,000, triggering significant outflows from US spot ETFs and indicating institutional de-risking. On-chain data confirms a bearish structure. Price has dropped back into the "bear market range," with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis falling below a key mean level—a pattern last seen in early 2022. The profitability bias has collapsed, with loss realization now dominating, mirroring a panic wave from February. Recent buyers who accumulated near the $82k top are under pressure, and loss realization is accelerating across both short-term and long-term holder cohorts. Off-chain, the rally failed at the aggregate US ETF cost basis near $83k, turning it into resistance. Spot market demand has deteriorated sharply, with sellers dominating order books. While a major long liquidation event cleared over $400M in leverage, spot buyers have not returned to absorb supply. Options markets show sustained demand for downside protection (elevated put premiums) but not panic, with volatility premiums near three-month highs. The conclusion is that the market remains fragile, with overhead supply from trapped ETF investors, weak spot demand, and accelerating losses. Without a return of spot buying and a reclaim of key cost bases, Bitcoin is vulnerable to further downside within the prevailing bear market structure.

insights.glassnode06/03 17:39