# Volatility Related Articles

2026 Outlook (Part 2): Bitcoin, The Shift in Pricing Power from Digital Gold to Neutral Value Reserve

Bitcoin 2026 Outlook: Transition from Digital Gold to Neutral Reserve Asset By 2026, Bitcoin is at a historic turning point, with its pricing power irreversibly shifting from crypto-native capital to traditional asset allocation logic. The core narrative is evolving from "digital gold" to a "neutral reserve asset," driven by geopolitical fragmentation and the restructuring of the global financial order into a multipolar system. Key drivers include institutional adoption via ETFs and corporate treasury strategies (DATs), which collectively lock up significant supply, reducing volatility and decoupling Bitcoin from its traditional four-year halving cycle. Market consensus confirms three key trends: 1) pricing is now demand-driven by institutional flows rather than halving-induced supply shocks, 2) Bitcoin is becoming a strategic asset on institutional and national balance sheets, and 3) long-term volatility will converge toward commodities like gold. The year will see a divided first half with wide price swings due to macro uncertainty and technical resistance near $100k, followed by a calmer second half as Fed rate cuts and growing institutional holdings solidify the new paradigm. Key risks include macro policy shifts, regulatory changes, ETF outflow reversals, and potential DAT company failures. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s value will be determined by its adoption as a non-sovereign, strategic reserve asset in global institutional allocation models.

marsbit10m ago

Is Bitcoin’s ‘supercycle’ still possible as on-chain signals turn red?

Bitcoin's price declined from near $97k to around $90k, testing investor conviction as on-chain signals turn bearish. This drop is driven by institutional selling, significant ETF outflows, and potential selling from major holders like GameStop, which may realize substantial losses. Despite weak sentiment and cautious on-chain metrics indicating building bear momentum, prominent figures like CZ remain bullish, forecasting a "supercycle" and a year-end target of $215k. This divergence between weak fundamentals and optimistic predictions risks creating a liquidation trap, especially as leverage increases. The current setup challenges the motivation to HODL amid macro uncertainty.

ambcrypto1h ago

US SEC and CFTC to Discuss Crypto Harmonization Ahead of Wall Street Week

The US SEC and CFTC are set to hold a joint public session on crypto harmonization on January 27, 2026, to discuss regulatory collaboration and support for the crypto industry. This comes ahead of a busy Wall Street week featuring key quarterly earnings reports from major companies like Tesla and Apple, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. These events are expected to influence market volatility. Meanwhile, the crypto market remains relatively calm, with a slight dip in total market cap to $3.03 trillion, while major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum show minimal price changes.

TheNewsCrypto3h ago

Years Later, Bitcoin Open Interest In BTC Still Fails To Break Past Previous Peaks

Bitcoin's price remains volatile below $90,000, with attention shifting to cautious signals from Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) measured in BTC terms. According to analyst Joao Wedson, OI in BTC has not reached new all-time highs since 2022, indicating restrained leverage usage and more careful capital allocation by traders. While speculation exists, the market shows no extreme euphoria. Additionally, analyst Darkfost notes that insufficient investor profitability—currently around 71% of BTC supply in profit—hinders a sustainable bullish recovery. Historically, stability requires over 75% supply in profit. Recent price rebounds briefly reached this threshold before rejection, prompting some investors to exit positions.

bitcoinist9h ago

Arbitrum drops 15% – Can $17M bridge inflows spark ARB’s rebound?

Arbitrum (ARB) dropped over 15% in a week, falling below key multi-month support levels. Despite the decline, $17 million flowed into its native bridge in a single day, suggesting institutional interest. Whale orders clustered around the $0.17 level, indicating potential accumulation. Technical indicators like the MACD showed weakness, while the RSI suggested oversold conditions. The combination of whale activity and bridge inflows hints at a possible reversal, but broader market sentiment remains a risk. Reclaiming support is crucial for any rebound; otherwise, further downside or consolidation may follow.

ambcrypto12h ago

Dormant Bitcoin awakens – Analyzing BTC cycle’s key liquidity test

This cycle is witnessing an unprecedented reactivation of long-dormant Bitcoin supply, far exceeding the levels seen in the 2017-2018 bull market. Over 1.6 million BTC, valued at approximately $150-160 billion, have moved since 2024. This distribution is occurring during price expansions, signals calculated profit-taking by long-term holders rather than distress selling, which has bolstered market liquidity without causing structural breakdowns. Concurrently, significant ETF outflows, including a single-session withdrawal of over $700 million, are acting as a liquidity catalyst. These outflows are not purely bearish; they represent a broader rebalancing where long-term holders supply liquidity as ETF demand cools. This rotation has led to price consolidation but not a market collapse. The released dormant coins are being absorbed by short-term holders (STHs), whose supply has climbed toward the upper end of its historical range. This absorption is increasing market volatility and fostering a sentiment geared toward short-term trading, likely sustaining choppy price action before a clearer trend can resume. The overall dynamic points to a major liquidity rotation feeding into price strength, with near-term volatility expected to remain elevated until the redistribution is complete.

ambcrypto15h ago

Matrixport Research: Tariffs Stir the Market, Bitcoin Becomes the 'First-React Asset' to Macro Volatility

This Matrixport research report analyzes recent Bitcoin price volatility in the context of former President Trump's tariff threats. It argues that the market pullback is not due to a deterioration in crypto fundamentals, but rather a tactical repricing driven by external macro shocks. The report posits that Trump's trade strategy has evolved into a "two-step escalation" mechanism designed to create immediate liquidity shocks and strengthen negotiation leverage. Bitcoin is increasingly acting as a high-beta proxy for global liquidity, often being the first asset to price in such macro shocks, especially over weekends when traditional markets are closed. The subsequent deeper sell-off upon the reopening of equity futures suggests the moves are driven more by institutional portfolio rebalancing than retail sentiment. The analysis concludes that these tariff-induced pullbacks (typically 3%-7%) are tactical and create repeatable trading opportunities rather than signaling a structural trend reversal. As the market adapts to this pattern, the report advises investors to focus on disciplined accumulation during these liquidity-driven dips rather than overinterpreting short-term headlines.

marsbitYesterday 09:30

Ethereum Approaches A “Never Broken” Support Line: Accumulators Step In

bitcoinistYesterday 07:33

Japan Maintains its Policy Rate, Inflation Forecasts Rise Slightly, and Crypto Market Walks Silently

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its policy rate at 0.75%, a decision widely anticipated by markets. The central bank also slightly raised its inflation forecast for fiscal 2026 to 1.9%, citing balanced economic and price conditions. Despite these developments, the global crypto market remained largely stable, though its total capitalization dipped slightly to $3.03 trillion. Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum saw minor declines, failing to hold key support levels. Meanwhile, U.S. equity markets posted gains, potentially providing underlying support to crypto assets. Analysts note persistent volatility across financial markets amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions.

TheNewsCryptoYesterday 06:48

Bitcoin Whales Keep Buying Through Volatility As Retail Steps Away

Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, dropping sharply from near $97,000 to around $87,000 amid escalating geopolitical tensions and trade-war concerns. Despite the sell-off, on-chain data indicates that Bitcoin whales have continued accumulating during the downturn, absorbing supply even as prices weakened. In contrast, retail investors are reducing their market participation, highlighting a divergence where larger holders use volatility to build positions at discounted levels. While the $90,000 level remains a key psychological support, the market's structure appears intact, with whale holdings not declining monthly. If accumulation by large investors continues, it could establish a stronger base and support a more stable recovery, depending on whether Bitcoin holds above $90,000 amid ongoing macro pressures.

bitcoinistYesterday 05:06