# Strait of Hormuz Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Strait of Hormuz", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Ceasefire Drama Escalates—Trump Points Finger At Iran, Bitcoin In Focus

Iran's Foreign Ministry accused the U.S. of committing war crimes through an unlawful naval blockade, citing violations of the UN Charter and a 1974 resolution. President Trump, meanwhile, claimed Iran fired shots in the Strait of Hormuz, breaching the ceasefire. Both sides blamed each other for escalating tensions. Bitcoin reacted immediately, dropping from $76,250 to $75,400 amid the news, reflecting the market's sensitivity to the conflict. Earlier volatility occurred when Trump announced—and Iran denied—a nuclear deal suspension. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical flashpoint, with markets closely monitoring whether negotiations will hold or collapse.

bitcoinist04/20 06:01

Ceasefire Drama Escalates—Trump Points Finger At Iran, Bitcoin In Focus

bitcoinist04/20 06:01

Arthur Hayes' New Article: It's 'No-Trade Zone' Time

Arthur Hayes argues that the current market is in a "no-trade zone," a period of high uncertainty created by two converging forces: the deflationary shock from AI and the inflationary shock from geopolitics. AI agents are rapidly displacing knowledge workers, eroding their incomes and creditworthiness, which will eventually trigger a deflationary financial crisis in consumer credit-dependent Western economies. Simultaneously, the war in the Middle East, particularly the potential disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, threatens global energy supplies and could force nations to abandon the dollar system. Hayes outlines three main scenarios: 1) A return to normalcy, where the deflationary AI shock remains the primary concern; 2) The "Tehran Toll Booth," where Iran controls the Strait and demands payment in gold or yuan, accelerating the end of dollar hegemony; and 3) "Empire Strikes Back," where the US destroys Iran's capabilities but risks a catastrophic regional war that sends commodity prices soaring. In all but the most extreme scenarios, Hayes posits that the key driver for Bitcoin's price will be the *quantity* of money, not its price (interest rates). He expects that governments, forced to fund wars and stockpile resources, will have to print money, expanding the money supply. This would be bullish for fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin, even if it occurs alongside rising rates. However, he cautions that until this liquidity is explicitly unleashed (e.g., when bond market volatility spikes), the risk/reward for new long positions is poor. His current strategy is to wait for a clear signal of monetary expansion before deploying capital, preferring to hold gold and select crypto assets in the meantime.

marsbit04/20 00:13

Arthur Hayes' New Article: It's 'No-Trade Zone' Time

marsbit04/20 00:13

Interest Rates May Not Be Cut This Year

The article discusses how a war in the Persian Gulf, leading to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven up oil prices, with Brent crude surging from $70 to over $118 per barrel. This energy shock has pushed U.S. retail gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, contributing significantly to inflation. The CPI rose to 3.3% in March, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, with energy costs affecting broader sectors like food and logistics. As a result, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026 has diminished. Market predictions now show a high probability of zero rate cuts, compared to pre-war expectations of multiple cuts. The Fed faces a dilemma between addressing inflation risks and supporting the economy. Politically, the situation poses challenges for President Trump and the Republican Party, as high inflation could impact the upcoming midterm elections. Trump's efforts to negotiate with Iran have stalled due to irreconcilable demands, and Iran's拖延 tactics may further strain U.S. economic and political stability. The article concludes that the prolonged conflict and sustained high oil prices could keep inflation elevated, delaying any monetary easing.

marsbit04/14 02:03

marsbit04/14 02:03

US-Iran Talks End Without Results, Strait of Hormuz Emerges as Key Sticking Point, US Military's High-Profile 'Mine-Clearing' Operation Met with Iranian Sinking Warning

High-level U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan ended without agreement after 21 hours of negotiations, with control of the Strait of Hormuz emerging as a critical sticking point. U.S. Vice President Vance led the American delegation, while Iran’s represented by Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. During the talks, a military standoff occurred in the strait: the U.S. claimed its destroyers conducted a mine-clearing operation and transited the waterway, while Iran asserted it issued a stern warning threatening to sink the vessels within 30 minutes if they proceeded. Tehran denied the U.S. narrative and emphasized its full control over the strait, currently permitting only non-military vessels under specific rules. The negotiations, the highest-level since 1979, made no progress on core issues like Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence. Analysts suggest the strait’s status remains the most urgent and market-sensitive issue, with Iran restricting transit and charging fees. Despite tensions, both sides showed restraint during the incident, avoiding escalation. The failure to reach a deal raises uncertainty over future diplomatic efforts and stability in the vital energy corridor.

marsbit04/12 05:42

From Threat to Ceasefire: How Did the U.S. Lose Its Dominance?

From escalating threats to a sudden ceasefire, the US appears to have lost its dominant position in the confrontation with Iran. The conflict has entered a more complex phase where ceasefire and strategic maneuvering coexist. A key shift lies in the reversal of the diplomatic structure: rather than forcing Iranian concessions through military action, the US has been drawn into a negotiation framework based on Tehran’s "Ten-Point Plan." Although Washington has not formally accepted all terms, its de facto recognition of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz marks a significant strategic retreat. This has allowed Iran to regain diplomatic and economic leverage. The outcome is counterintuitive: the conflict has not weakened Iran but instead restored its deterrence capability. Meanwhile, the failure of US military means has undermined the credibility of American threats, forcing any future negotiations to be based on genuine compromise. However, the ceasefire remains fragile, with localized clashes continuing and Israel’s actions adding further uncertainty. The situation remains on the brink of escalation, highly dependent on external variables. More profoundly, a conflict originally intended to pressure or even topple the Iranian regime may instead consolidate its internal power structure. The US has shifted from a dominant party to a negotiator, while Iran has moved from a pressured state to an active player. The confrontation has thus entered a longer-term and more complicated stage.

marsbit04/09 17:03

From Threat to Ceasefire: How Did the U.S. Lose Its Dominance?

marsbit04/09 17:03

Iran’s $1 toll could cost ships 281 Bitcoin each through Strait of Hormuz

Iran is reinforcing Bitcoin's role as a censorship-resistant asset by proposing BTC payments for tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Following a ceasefire, Iran announced a $1 per barrel of oil charge, meaning a fully loaded ship could owe roughly 281 BTC (equivalent to $2 million). A spokesperson stated vessels would have seconds to pay via Bitcoin network to avoid traceability and sanctions. While the Chinese Yuan was previously accepted, the addition of BTC is notable for bypassing Western financial systems. The news sparked reactions, with some, like Jack Mallers, hailing it as a step toward BTC becoming a global reserve currency, while others, like Arthur Hayes, remain skeptical without on-chain proof. Iran has a significant history of using digital assets to circumvent sanctions, with its crypto activity previously surging to nearly $8 billion.

ambcrypto04/09 08:37

Iran’s $1 toll could cost ships 281 Bitcoin each through Strait of Hormuz

ambcrypto04/09 08:37

A 20% Oil Shortage: Why It Could Trigger Systemic Collapse?

A 20% global oil shortage is not a simple supply gap but a trigger for systemic risk through three behavioral chains: hoarding, speculation, and capital waiting for rivals to collapse. While strategic reserves and workarounds mask the physical deficit temporarily, market psychology amplifies the crisis. Once confidence erodes—signaled by depleting reserves or confirmed supply gaps—a rapid repricing occurs, akin to a bank run. Current market calm, despite real-world disruptions like factory shutdowns and fuel rationing, reflects fragile consensus. The critical period is mid-to-late April, when buffer exhaustion may be confirmed. The crisis hinges not on absolute scarcity but on widespread belief in its possibility, potentially leading to economic contraction, stagflation, and social unrest. Historical parallels include the 1973 oil crisis and 2008 financial collapse.

marsbit04/08 09:07

A 20% Oil Shortage: Why It Could Trigger Systemic Collapse?

marsbit04/08 09:07

Iran greenlights crypto for Strait of Hormuz tolls – Is BTC ultimate war hedge?

Iran now accepts cryptocurrency payments for tolls from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting crypto's emerging role as a hedge during geopolitical turmoil and inflation. While Bitcoin saw a recent 4.06% price increase, it continues to underperform gold and struggles to break out against the U.S. dollar. Market data indicates Bitcoin is in a stabilization, not recovery, phase, remaining weaker compared to traditional assets like gold—which leads in market cap rankings—while Bitcoin ranks 12th. Despite this, Bitcoin dominance stands at 59.02%, and influential figures like Michael Saylor express strong confidence in its long-term value. Analysts suggest crypto markets will retain a geopolitical risk premium until there is clarity on conflict resolution.

ambcrypto04/07 00:02

Iran greenlights crypto for Strait of Hormuz tolls – Is BTC ultimate war hedge?

ambcrypto04/07 00:02

Trump Says US Leaving Iran Soon — What This Means For Bitcoin And Oil

President Trump announced the U.S. may withdraw military forces from Iran within two to three weeks, conditional on achieving its military objectives. This news prompted immediate market reaction, with oil prices cooling and stocks rising as fears of a Strait of Hormuz blockade eased. However, ongoing strikes indicate potential continued volatility. Bitcoin, trading around $68,500, is highly sensitive to these developments. A swift U.S. exit could trigger a relief rally in risk assets like Bitcoin, while prolonged conflict could cause investors to flee to traditional hedges. The situation remains uncertain as the U.S. aims to degrade Iran's capabilities before departing.

bitcoinist04/01 21:32

Trump Says US Leaving Iran Soon — What This Means For Bitcoin And Oil

bitcoinist04/01 21:32

Soaring Oil Prices No Longer Drive Up Interest Rates, What Is the Market Afraid Of?

Oil prices surged nearly 60% in March 2026—the steepest monthly rise since Brent crude's inception in 1988—after the Strait of Hormuz closed, cutting off 17.8 million barrels per day of oil flow. Historically, such spikes pushed inflation expectations and bond yields higher, but this time, the 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply from 4.44% to 3.92% in late March, signaling a decoupling. This divergence reflects a market shift: growth risks now outweigh inflation concerns. Bond markets are betting on recession rather than persistent inflation. Historical oil shocks—like those in 1973, 1979, 1990, and 2008—often preceded economic downturns. The sole exception was the 2022 spike, which triggered severe inflation instead. Market expectations pivoted rapidly. Earlier, traders anticipated rate cuts, but by late March, weak consumer confidence and manufacturing data drove bets toward Fed dovishness. Chair Powell emphasized monitoring whether the supply shock is temporary, but the bond market has already priced in recession risks. If stagflation emerges—as during 1973–1982—real assets like gold and commodities may outperform, while stocks and bonds could suffer. The 60/40 portfolio would be particularly vulnerable. Analysts project Brent could average $115–125 in April, with a peak of $150 possible if the Strait remains closed. The bond market’s verdict is clear: fear of recession dominates.

marsbit03/31 03:05

Soaring Oil Prices No Longer Drive Up Interest Rates, What Is the Market Afraid Of?