# Speculation Related Articles

Bitcoin: The End of 'Faith-Based Trading'

Bitcoin is undergoing a painful transition from a purely speculative asset to an institutional one, marked by a 40% decline from its October 2025 peak of around $125,000 to approximately $73,000. This signals the end of the "Tinkerbell Effect," where prices were sustained by belief rather than fundamentals. Key drivers include hawkish signals from the Fed, sustained institutional outflows—with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing over $30 billion in outflows in January 2026 alone—and stalled regulatory progress, such as the delayed CLARITY Act. Bitcoin has decoupled from traditional assets, falling 11% in January while gold rose 13%, breaking its "digital gold" narrative. Correlation with equities has also dropped significantly. It is testing key technical levels, having broken below the average ETF entry price of $81,600 and approaching the psychologically critical $70,000 mark. Despite a 370% gain since early 2023, the current pullback reflects a withdrawal of speculative excess rather than a fundamental breakdown. The market is shifting from faith-based trading to value anchoring, though Bitcoin’s high volatility remains inherent. Concerns about a potential "crypto winter" persist if declines deepen, especially given Bitcoin’s sensitivity to Federal Reserve liquidity changes. The long-term outlook points to a complex maturation beyond pure speculation.

华尔街日报02/05 10:36

Bhutan Bitcoin transfers spark sell speculation as on-chain data shows no follow-through

Recent Bitcoin transfers from Bhutan-linked wallets, including a 184 BTC ($14M) transaction and a 100.8 BTC transfer days earlier, sparked market sell-off speculation. However, on-chain data indicates these were likely internal or custodial movements rather than direct exchange deposits. No sustained increase in exchange inflows or reduction in Bhutan’s ~5,700 BTC ($417M) holdings has been observed. In a weak market, such movements attract attention, but historical patterns suggest they are routine and not indicative of active selling. Without further evidence of exchange-bound transactions or declining balances, claims of liquidation remain unconfirmed.

ambcrypto02/04 18:03

"Big Short" Burry: Bitcoin Has Already Crashed 40%, If It Falls Another 10%, It Will Trigger "Disastrous Consequences"

Famed "Big Short" investor Michael Burry warns that a further 10% drop in Bitcoin, which has already fallen over 40% from its peak, could trigger "disastrous consequences." He argues Bitcoin has failed as a hedge asset and remains purely speculative, noting its inability to respond to typical drivers like dollar weakness or geopolitical risk. Burry highlights that nearly 200 public companies hold Bitcoin, and a continued decline could force corporate treasuries to sell, exacerbating losses. He specifically cautions that a 10% drop would push aggressive corporate holder Strategy Inc. into billions in losses and cut off its access to capital markets. Additionally, Burry warns that Bitcoin sell-off could spill over to broader markets, potentially causing a "collateral death spiral" in tokenized metal futures—which aren’t backed by physical metal—as investors liquidate positions. Despite the warning, the report notes Bitcoin’s relatively small market size may limit wider financial contagion.

华尔街日报02/04 01:03

VC Data Hits Bottom, New Coin Narratives Peak: Crypto Trading Logic is Being Rewritten

VC funding for crypto projects has hit a multi-year low, with early-stage investments dropping over 60% since 2022. This signals a structural collapse in the primary market, leaving fewer new native crypto projects to trade. While meme coins initially seemed like an alternative, they’ve evolved into short-term speculative instruments rather than sustainable assets. In response, the industry is shifting toward tokenized real-world assets (like stocks and precious metals) and prediction markets. Platforms are increasingly offering gold, silver, and equity tokens, integrating traditional financial volatility into crypto. Prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket) are also growing, allowing users to bet on real-world events—offering a more accessible form of speculation based on event outcomes rather than asset prices. As native crypto innovation slows, the market is adapting by externalizing tradable content—leveraging macro events, political shifts, and financial instruments to sustain engagement. The future of crypto trading may rely less on new token narratives and more on global uncertainty and repackaged traditional assets.

比推02/03 09:28

MemeCore jumps 89% as market participation thins – What’s driving M?

MemeCore [M] surged 89% amid thin market participation, largely driven by speculative trading rather than fundamental catalysts. The price rise was accompanied by a 12.96% increase in trading volume, reaching $147 million, suggesting near-term strength. However, the rally appears unsustainable as perpetual futures traders fueled the advance, with derivatives data showing a 29% rise in perpetual contract capital. Despite this, liquidation data indicates a narrowing gap between long and short positions, and funding rates are nearing negative territory, reflecting growing short exposure. Technical indicators, including the Parabolic SAR flipping above price and a rising ADX, signal fading bullish momentum and increasing sell-side activity. The move is at risk of a near-term correction.

ambcrypto02/02 18:02

When Crypto Projects Run Out of Supply, What Can Traders Trade?

The article examines the severe downturn in the crypto market, particularly the sharp decline in Bitcoin and altcoin prices, and raises a critical question: what will traders be able to trade in a year if the supply of new crypto-native projects dries up? Data shows a structural collapse in early-stage funding for crypto projects (like L1s, L2s, DeFi), with a 63.9% drop in seed/angel rounds over four years. This "first-level market death" means fewer new tokens will launch, leaving exchanges and traders with a shrinking pool of native assets. Even established crypto funds are struggling with poor returns and low cash distributions post-2020. While memes surged as an alternative, they have evolved into short-term, attention-based assets driven by liquidity and speculation—not sustainable replacements for traditional altcoins. The industry is now looking outward for solutions: - **Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA)**: Platforms are listing tokenized stocks, metals, and indices to attract traders with traditional market volatility and narratives. - **Prediction markets**: Platforms like Polymarket are growing rapidly by allowing direct betting on real-world events (e.g., elections, macro trends), simplifying speculation to yes/no outcomes based on probability. In conclusion, as native project pipelines shrink, the market is shifting from "new token-driven trading" to speculating on external uncertainties and tradable narratives from the broader world. Traders must adapt to this new paradigm.

比推02/02 16:23

A Year from Now, What Will the Crypto Market Be Trading?

marsbit02/02 09:58

Nietzschean Penguin hits ATH, then crashes – Why ‘scarcity’ fails to save bulls

Nietzschean Penguin (PENGUIN), a memecoin with a fixed supply of 1 billion tokens, experienced a rapid surge from under $0.01 to an all-time high near $0.167 in late January, driven by hype and speculative interest rather than organic demand. However, the price quickly collapsed, falling roughly 75% to the $0.037–$0.042 range. The decline was exacerbated by thin liquidity, increased selling pressure, and a major whale exiting at a significant loss. Despite its scarcity narrative and viral-themed branding, the token’s lack of utility and weak market structure led to high volatility and a sharp correction, demonstrating that narrative alone cannot sustain price without solid fundamentals.

ambcrypto02/01 20:01

Bitcoin Futures Trading Volume Falls to Lowest Monthly Level Since 2024

Monthly Bitcoin futures trading volume fell to approximately $1.09 trillion in January, marking the lowest level since 2024 and a significant decline from previous periods when volumes often exceeded $2 trillion. This slowdown reflects reduced speculative activity and more cautious trader positioning. Trading remains highly concentrated on major exchanges, with Binance, OKX, and Bybit accounting for the majority of activity. The decline appears orderly, indicating a phase of consolidation rather than market stress, as participants reduce leverage and await clearer signals before re-engaging.

bitcoinist01/31 09:01

Zcash jumps 10% – But is ZEC’s rally built on speculation?

Zcash (ZEC) surged over 10% in 24 hours, reclaiming the $384 level, largely due to speculative activity in the perpetual futures market. Open interest increased by $71.26 million with a positive funding rate, indicating strong long positioning. However, spot market data reveals significant selling, with $31.37 million in outflows over 48 hours, suggesting a lack of genuine investor support. This divergence between speculative futures activity and spot market withdrawals makes the rally fragile. Liquidation heatmaps indicate a high concentration of liquidity below the current price, pointing to a potential downward move toward $350 if spot demand doesn't return.

ambcrypto01/28 08:10