# Prediction Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Prediction", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

2% of Users Contribute 90% of Trading Volume: The True Portrait of Polymarket

A deep analysis of Polymarket's user base reveals a stark concentration of trading activity: just 2% of users, classified as high-frequency, high-volume professional traders (P6), generate nearly 90% of the platform's total trading volume. This contrasts with the 69% of users who are low-activity, small-scale participants (P2), driven primarily by major events like elections or sports. The study, analyzing three months of on-chain data, segments users into seven profiles based on transaction frequency (T1-T7) and volume (V1-V7). While the user base is dominated by infrequent, small-scale bettors, the trading volume is overwhelmingly controlled by a small cohort of algorithmic and systematic traders. This structural split directly influences market dynamics. Cryptocurrency markets are dominated by P6 traders, indicating heavy algorithmic activity. Sports markets attract a more diverse mix, including seasoned human bettors. Political markets have the highest share of users but are filled with event-driven, one-time participants. The findings have critical implications for fee structures. Polymarket's current tiered fees—highest for crypto (1.80%), lower for sports (0.75%) and politics (1.00%), and zero for geopolitics—are strategically aligned with the tolerance of each user profile. A flat fee could severely damage liquidity by discouraging the vital P6 segment. The report concludes that platform growth strategies must be tailored to target specific user profiles: P6 for volume, P2 for user growth. It posits that Polymarket's future may lie at the intersection of crypto and AI, potentially becoming a mass-market platform for autonomous trading agents.

marsbit03/27 10:07

2% of Users Contribute 90% of Trading Volume: The True Portrait of Polymarket

marsbit03/27 10:07

Odaily Interview with Bitwise: BTC Could Reach $95,000 Range by Year-End

Odaily interviewed Ryan Rasmussen, research lead at Bitwise Asset Management, which manages around $15 billion in assets and is a major issuer of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs. Rasmussen discussed Bitcoin's price outlook, predicting it could reach around $95,000 by year-end—a roughly 40% increase from current levels—driven by accelerating institutional adoption. He emphasized that institutional allocation is the primary long-term driver of Bitcoin’s price, noting that many global institutional investors are still in early stages of exposure, with new allocations typically starting at 2-3% and growing to around 5% over time. Rasmussen believes the market is near a bottom and may trade sideways in the near term due to macro uncertainty, but expects significant institutional inflows via ETFs in the second half of the year. The interview highlighted a major shift in market dynamics: early retail investors are taking profits, while long-term focused institutions are accumulating positions. This transition, he argued, is structurally positive for crypto markets. Rasmussen also addressed Bitcoin’s role in portfolios as a diversifier with low correlation to traditional assets and discussed Bitwise’s expanding presence in Asia, where interest from family offices and private banks is growing rapidly. He noted that Asian markets are more forward-looking in crypto adoption compared to the U.S. and Europe.

Odaily星球日报03/27 03:13

Odaily Interview with Bitwise: BTC Could Reach $95,000 Range by Year-End

Odaily星球日报03/27 03:13

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